Russian forces are apparently attacking towards the state border with Ukraine in Sumy Oblast.

It's not yet known if this is just another attack on Ukrainian-controlled Kursk Oblast, or if it's an assault directly into Sumy. I'm more inclined to believe the former as there were reports of Russian assault operations on Malaya Loknya which I reported on earlier.

Threat of Iskanders from Kursk

Confirmed to be near Malaya Loknya.

Ukrainian forces have reportedly entered the village of Novosotnitsky in Kursk Oblast.

According to reports, Ukrainian infantry landed from APCs and "began several measures to consolidate the territory". This suggests that if the report is true, Ukraine was able to take up positions here.

Heavy fighting is currently ongoing, including artillery and FPV drones.

A Russian source reported that Ukraine brought in roughly 70 soldiers into a forest in the Bolshoe Soldatskoe direction. The forest they are talking about it probably the one marked in yellow on the map.

Artillery is working on the Ukrainian troops who dispersed among the trees.

This footage is apparently the first showing a Ukrainian vehicle loss in the new Kursk offensive. It's possible that this is a couple of days old, as usually drone footage takes a while to be edited and released, but it's also possible that they rushed this one out to demonstrate that Russia is working on repelling the Ukrainian offensive.

A large Ukrainian column is spotted by a Russian drone in Kursk Oblast.

Iskander in the direction of Sumy Oblast.

Correction: Its flying to Kyiv

Moving past Kyiv

Disappeared in Zhytomyr Oblast.

Expect frequent alarms for ballistics over the next few days due to the Ukrainian offensive. Russia will be wanting to target all kinds of manpower concentrations, especially in Sumy Oblast.

At the same time as the Ukrainian Kursk offensive, Ukrainian UAVs are targeting Kursk Oblast. At least one has been shot down by Russian air defence so far.

Another Iskander in the direction of Kyiv

Disappeared too.

There has been high activity of Russian reconnaissance drones over Ukraine over the past few hours. There is currently one near Kharkiv, and another near Pavlohrad (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast).

Additionally, there were previously drones near Odesa and Chernihiv.

There is now an S-300/400 system active in Belgorod Oblast which is in air defence mode. There is a possibility of ballistic missile launches considering the reconnaissance drone near Kharkiv, but this remains unlikely at the moment.

Explosions in Pavlohrad. An Iskander Ballistic missile launched from Kursk struck the city.

It turns out that three Russian Tu-95MS aircraft were redeployed from Olenya air base in Murmansk Oblast to Engels-2 air base in Saratov Oblast, rather than two. The purpose was to equip with Kh-101 cruise missiles.

All three Tu-95s have now flown back to Olenya. One flew back in the morning, and the other two followed shortly afterwards.

This means that there are now at least 6 Tu-95MS aircraft at Olenya air base equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles and ready for use.

South Korea's military reported that North Korea conducted a test launch of a ballistic missile a short while ago into the East Sea.

Japan's NHK News stated that officials from the relevant ministries and agencies in Japan will gather in the management centre to assess the situation.

This launch coincides with the visit of U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken to South Korea to reaffirm America's alliance with the nation amid a political crisis.

Geolocated footage and reports from reliable sources indicate that Ukrainian forces have launched a new offensive in Kursk Oblast, making progress in the direction of the town of Bolshoe Soldatskoe.

Ukraine has been accumulating armoured fighting vehicles, armoured personnel carriers, and tanks in Sumy Oblast for this offensive for some time, and yesterday they finally launched it. The attack came in two waves. The first wave consisted of around 5 armoured vehicles, all equipped with electronic warfare systems (EW), rendering most Russian drones, except fiber optic ones, useless. It advanced northeast along the P-200 highway in the direction of Bolshoe Soldatskoe. Ukrainian infantry followed close behind, and under the cover the initial thrust, were able to break off from the highway and infiltrate two forests. Russian drones quickly spotted them and corrected artillery fire on the Ukrainian formations, likely achieving casualties among them.

A second wave was then launched, in the form of a column of at least 12 armoured vehicles, which advanced past the forests while the infantry consolidated their positions there from the first assault. This column also brought electronic warfare with them, this time with longer range, making Russian reconnaissance drones very difficult to operate. Russian drone operators quickly responded by utilising fiber optic drones to strike the incoming column which was headed for the small village of Berdin. Reports suggest that a substantial number of Ukrainian armoured vehicles were destroyed in the process. Nevertheless, a couple of APCs reached the village of Berdin, where they engaged with firefights with the Russian defenders.

Russian forces were initially able to put up significant resistance in Berdin, causing the AFU to suffer casualties, but was then dislodged from their positions and Ukraine brought in more reinforcements. As the first troops entered the village, more infantry dismounted inside the village, pushing the Russians out and capturing Berdin.

Not wanting to lose their initial momentum, Ukrainian forces went on to attack to the east, entering the village of Novosotnitsky. Russian forces put up significant resistance here as well, but eventually Ukraine was able to dislodge them from their positions, securing the western houses of the village. Once the Russians retreated to the eastern houses, a Russian tank laid suppressive fire on the Ukrainian positions, attempting to degrade any future offensive potential.

As of now, fighting is ongoing in the centre of Novosotnitsky. Ukrainian forces are trying to advance further east, while the Russians put up fierce resistance. It's likely, in my opinion, that Ukraine will attempt some form of pincer movement on the village, by bringing in APCs to the east of the settlement to try to squeeze the Russian garrison out to the north. The lack of minefields on and around the R-200 highway makes it much easier for the Ukrainians to advance, with fiber optic drones remaining the main obstacle in their way.

Meanwhile, to the south, lower intensity fighting is underway. Ukrainian forces were able to advance from the village of Kruglik, capturing Russian positions in the forests and forest plantations, pushing the Russians back to the village of Pushkarnoe. This is likely to secure the flank of the main Ukrainian push to Bolshoe Soldatskoe, and so far, this maneuver has been successful.

+ ~17.9km² in favour of Ukraine.