Over the past few hours, a historic achievement has been made the Sudanese Armed Forces. They entered and will likely capture in the coming hours, the capital of the Al-Jazirah state: Wad Madani.

The situation looked incredibly dire for the SAF just six months ago. The country was split in two, but after a lightning counteroffensive near the strategic city of Sennar, and intensified airstrikes, the SAF was able to degrade the RSF's defensive capabilities to a point where they were no longer able to effectively defend key defensive nodes in the Al Jazirah and Sennar states, despite entrenched positions.

6 months ago, some were observing that the SAF could collapse in all of Sudan except for the coastal areas by the end of 2025, but the situation has completely flipped, and the SAF is pushing for a full victory in one of the bloodiest civil wars of the 21st century.

Massive celebrations are now being reported across cities in Sudan.

An Israeli airstrike on a school in Jabalia-al-Balad, Northern Gaza, reportedly killed at least 8 people and wounded several others. From the videos, it appears that the school sheltered displaced civilians.

Israeli media reports that the number of injured Israeli soldiers evacuated by helicopter from Gaza today has increased to 30. We haven't seen numbers like this in a long time. Remember what I said about Hamas possibly regrouping and recruiting new fighters?

Is Hamas and their allied armed factions making a comeback in the Gaza strip? An analysis:

According to the Jerusalem Post, Hamas is indeed making a substantial comeback in Gaza by recruiting new forces. Israeli channel 12 states that Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) combined have between 20,000 and 23,000 fighters left. The Jerusalem post reported that the number was closer to around 12,000.

The IDF last reported that it had killed between 17,000 and 20,000 Hamas and PIJ fighters during the war and wounded another 14,000-16,000.

The fact that the IDF publicly stated in October 2023 that Hama's full forces were 25,000 means that the numbers simply don't add up, as if the IDF did indeed kill 20,000, that would leave just 5,000 still active, and that's not even including the 14,000-16,000 supposedly wounded.

However, other reports say that Hamas had a full force of 40,000 fighters at the beginning of the war. If you were to take away the 20,000 killed, and part of the 14,000-16,000 wounded who wouldn't have been able to be treated due to Gaza's heavily degraded health system, that doesn't add up to the 20,000-23,000 remaining Hamas fighters, especially considering that today's figures include the PIJ, and other allied armed groups.

This suggests that the IDF is either lying about the total number of Hamas fighters killed, or Hamas and their allied factions are conducting recruitment once again.

I personally believe that it is a mixture of both. The IDF has a vested interest in downplaying the civilian to Hamas casualty ratio to make them look better on a global stage and maintain key diplomatic and bilateral relations. However, I wouldn't doubt that Hamas and their allied factions are also recruiting Gazans, who have been radicalised by this war. After seeing their family members and friends get blown apart by Israeli air strikes, many will turn to Hamas and other armed groups for revenge against Israel, and for some - Jewish people as a whole. This pattern has been observed in so many conflicts in the past, and the ongoing Israeli attacks would create a breeding ground for recruitment.

Obviously, this recruitment will be much more difficult under these conditions. A significant portion of Hamas' underground tunnel network has been damaged and destroyed by Israeli airstrikes and ground operations; however, it is likely that they still maintain a solid presence in the central-southern parts of Gaza, between Rafah and the Israeli-controlled Netzarim corridor, specifically in the cities of Nuseirat, Deir Al Balah, Khan Younis, Bureij, and Maghazi due to the relatively limited nature of previous Israeli ground operations in these areas compared to, for example: Rafah, Gaza City and Jabalia.

Additionally, Israel obviously has full air superiority over the Gaza Strip, and can strike areas wherever and whenever they want, making recruitment much more difficult. Nevertheless, it appears that this has taken place at some level, whether that be low-level, or significant recruitment rates.

The same is also occurring in the West Bank, especially considering the current siege and battles for the Jenin refugee camp, but that's a story for another day.

Overall, I doubt that Israel will be able to fully eradicate Hamas due to both how embedded they are in Gaza, and also the radicalisation of the Gazan people.

Unconfirmed reports of four Ukrainian ballistic missiles being shot down over Belgorod Oblast which were flying towards targets in Voronezh Oblast.

The RSF garrison at Beka village has reportedly surrendered to the SAF. Previously they were preparing the village for defence, but since the encirclement of this part of the Al-Jazirah state, the operational situation in these frontline villages holding the flanks has changed.

It's possible that this entire Al-Jazirah pocket will collapse in the coming days.

If anyone is living in Ukraine or Russia or is on the front lines and you want to contribute to my reporting, please reach out to me in DMS here on Telegram (@AMK_Mapping1).

I would love to have some sources directly from Ukraine or Russia to make my reporting even more reliable. Obviously staying safe is an incredibly important factor, so if you were to get in contact with me, I would ensure that anything and everything you tell me is completely anonymous and any potential images of, for example, smoke rising from a missile strike, would have EXIF data scraped, and certain parts censored.

Obviously, I highly doubt anyone would be willing to do this, but I thought I may as well try to ask, considering my account has got a bit bigger and more reliable now. This post isn't to pressure anyone, so only reach out if you want to and feel safe to. Any worries (for example to do with OPSEC) can be discussed, and I am very flexible with conditions that you might/will have.

Recent reports by reliable sources indicate that Russian forces advanced in western Luhansk Oblast and captured the village of Nadiya.

After a long period of relative quiet on this front, with the main focus for Russia being to the northwest, Russian forces restarted assault operations and captured Nadiya. They did this by attacking from their bridgehead near Serhiivka, advancing down a road and into the forests next to Nadiya.

Nadiya was an important Ukrainian defensive node in this area and has held for well over a year. The fall of this village now threatens any remaining Ukrainian formations in the forests to the south.

+ ~2.05km² in favour of Russia.

A recent map update by the Ukrainian source "Deepstate" indicates that Russian forces advanced northwest of Bakhmut, entering the village of Orikhovo-Vasylivka.

After the Russians captured the trench fortifications on the approaches to the village, they began active assault operations inside it, taking up positions in houses. They continued to push towards the centre of the village where the AFU is currently holding out.

They also completed the capture of two treelines which were previously in the grey zone.

+ ~1.44km² in favour of Russia.

Geolocated footage indicates that Russian forces advanced in the northern part of Toretsk and reached the northern-most city limits.

Russian forces were able to advance from positions in the private district and from near the highway, north, towards a small Terykon. This Terykon is likely still in the grey zone, however the northernmost city limits of Toretsk are now under Russian control.

This was of the main sections of Toretsk that Ukraine still held, meaning that the Krymkse mines are the largest remaining Ukrainian stronghold within the city limits.

+ ~0.55km² in favour of Russia.

The IDF has issued evacuation orders for part of the Nuseirat Refugee Camp in central Gaza, urging residents to move to the Al-Mawasi humanitarian zone.

They stated that Hamas and allied factions have been launching rockets from here.

Recent reports from reliable sources indicate that Russian forces continue to make small advances in the Pokrovsk direction and in western Donetsk Oblast.

In the Pokrovsk direction, Russian infantry was able to marginally advance in Zelene, taking up new positions near the centre of the village.

In western Donetsk Oblast, Russian forces completed the capture of Novovasylivka by seizing the agricultural buildings on the village's western outskirts. Battles have now reportedly begun for the neighbouring village of Upsenivka.

Additionally, Russian forces were able to establish control over most of the chalk quarry northwest of Solone.

+ ~1.69km² in favour of Russia.

Recent reports from multiple reliable sources indicate that Russian forces advanced in western Donetsk Oblast and have expanded their zone of control in Yasenove.

After establishing a foothold in the first few houses, Russian forces advanced further west, reaching the intersection between the residential streets and the Andriivka - Pokrovsk highway, taking up positions in the houses there. They also advanced down the northern street, capturing more houses there too.

+ ~0.28km² in favour of Russia.

The Nuseirat Municipality in central Gaza announced that their services will stop within 48 hours due to the fuel required to operate water wells and sewage pumps finally running out.

Additionally, Israeli air strikes are expected on Nuseirat in the coming hours after evacuation warnings were issued for part of the camp.

An explosion was reported in Kramatorsk, Donetsk Oblast after a Russian KAB glide bomb was launched at the city. Locals report a column of smoke rising.

There were also reports of explosions in Slovyansk.

Most of Ukrainian-controlled Donetsk Oblast is under attack. Launches are reported on Bilytske, Rodynske, Slovyansk, Druzhkivka and Kramatorsk.

Repeated explosions in Kramatorsk. Most glide bombs seem to be directed here.