Forwarded from WarFront Witness (SneakyCookie)
⚡The UK prime minister Keir Starmer, while on visit in Kyiv has announced the transfer of 15 mobile air defense systems, "Gravehawk" (pic 1), to Ukraine in 2025.
The details of this new air defense system are very rare. We know the system was designed for the Ukrainian army specific needs, it uses AIM-132 short range IR-guided missiles (a british equivalent to the american AIM-9 or german Iris-T)
2 prototypes of these systems are rumored to be in use by the AFU as soon as October 2023. (Vid 2,3)
The system likely combines high interception performance (in its domain) and mobility and makes it in a way similar to the russian Pantsir-S1. It is also likely to be quite cheap and could be made to have the same role as mobile fire groups equipped with technical mounted machine guns.
The details of this new air defense system are very rare. We know the system was designed for the Ukrainian army specific needs, it uses AIM-132 short range IR-guided missiles (a british equivalent to the american AIM-9 or german Iris-T)
2 prototypes of these systems are rumored to be in use by the AFU as soon as October 2023. (Vid 2,3)
The system likely combines high interception performance (in its domain) and mobility and makes it in a way similar to the russian Pantsir-S1. It is also likely to be quite cheap and could be made to have the same role as mobile fire groups equipped with technical mounted machine guns.
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Recent reports by multiple reliable sources indicate that Russian forces have made significant progress in the Velyka Novosilka direction and captured most of the village of Vremivka.
Russian forces advanced from positions in the southern part of Vremivka, entering and capturing the central part of the village, before panning out towards the bridge over the Mokri Yaly river which leads to Velyka Novosilka. It's likely that Ukraine still maintains a presence in the northern houses, but it is likely very limited and will probably be eliminated in the coming days or even hours.
Vremivka is the main obstacle preventing Russia from advancing into western Velyka Novosilka, and this progress made inside the village will probably force a Ukrainian withdrawal from the southern part of of the town.
+ ~1.36km² in favour of Russia.
Russian forces advanced from positions in the southern part of Vremivka, entering and capturing the central part of the village, before panning out towards the bridge over the Mokri Yaly river which leads to Velyka Novosilka. It's likely that Ukraine still maintains a presence in the northern houses, but it is likely very limited and will probably be eliminated in the coming days or even hours.
Vremivka is the main obstacle preventing Russia from advancing into western Velyka Novosilka, and this progress made inside the village will probably force a Ukrainian withdrawal from the southern part of of the town.
+ ~1.36km² in favour of Russia.
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Recent reports from multiple reliable sources indicate that Russian forces have advanced west of Kurakhove and entered the village of Dachne.
Russian forces advanced from positions in the Kurakhove water treatment plant, to the outskirts of Dachne, capturing what used to be agricultural buildings. However, reports suggest that fighting is already underway in the main part of Dachne, with Russian sources reporting Russian troops inside the village, and Deepstate updating their map to show a grey zone in the settlement's southeastern part.
In addition to this advance, Russian forces advanced down a treeline further south, approaching the intersection with another treeline. There was also a marginal advance towards this same intersection from the south. Ukrainian forces appear to be trying to fend off the Russians from 2-3 directions here.
+ ~4.46km² in favour of Russia.
Russian forces advanced from positions in the Kurakhove water treatment plant, to the outskirts of Dachne, capturing what used to be agricultural buildings. However, reports suggest that fighting is already underway in the main part of Dachne, with Russian sources reporting Russian troops inside the village, and Deepstate updating their map to show a grey zone in the settlement's southeastern part.
In addition to this advance, Russian forces advanced down a treeline further south, approaching the intersection with another treeline. There was also a marginal advance towards this same intersection from the south. Ukrainian forces appear to be trying to fend off the Russians from 2-3 directions here.
+ ~4.46km² in favour of Russia.
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Recent reports from multiple reliable sources indicate that Russian forces advanced in western Donetsk Oblast, spearheading a new assault towards the border with Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
Firstly, Russian forces began assault operations inside the village of Yasenove, in an attempt to clear the remaining Ukrainian positions. This was in coordination with an attack down the treeline that leads to the village's northwestern outskirts. As a result of these intensified assault operations, Ukrainian forces were eventually dislodged and squeezed out of their positions here.
Russian forces then quickly found a weak spot in Ukraine's defenses, that being to the southwest of Yasenove. This point was significantly weaker as the other areas are defended by large open fields that Russian forces would've need to cross with potentially costly attacks.
Either way, this attack southwest of Yasenove resulted in Russia advancing down the forest plantations before branching off onto the perpendicular forest plantations which run along the northern bank of a pond and swamps. These swamps protected Russia's southern flank. Russian forces have now reached the southern outskirts of the village of Novoandriivka, effectively bypassing the Ukrainian buffer zone in the fields east of the village.
+ ~1.87km² in favour of Russia.
Firstly, Russian forces began assault operations inside the village of Yasenove, in an attempt to clear the remaining Ukrainian positions. This was in coordination with an attack down the treeline that leads to the village's northwestern outskirts. As a result of these intensified assault operations, Ukrainian forces were eventually dislodged and squeezed out of their positions here.
Russian forces then quickly found a weak spot in Ukraine's defenses, that being to the southwest of Yasenove. This point was significantly weaker as the other areas are defended by large open fields that Russian forces would've need to cross with potentially costly attacks.
Either way, this attack southwest of Yasenove resulted in Russia advancing down the forest plantations before branching off onto the perpendicular forest plantations which run along the northern bank of a pond and swamps. These swamps protected Russia's southern flank. Russian forces have now reached the southern outskirts of the village of Novoandriivka, effectively bypassing the Ukrainian buffer zone in the fields east of the village.
+ ~1.87km² in favour of Russia.
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Recent reports from multiple reliable sources indicate that Russian forces advanced on the western flank of Pokrovsk and entered the village of Udachne.
After intensified assault operations on Udcahne from the east, Russian forces were able to advance from their positions in the windbreaks on either side of the railway tracks and established control over the industrial zone in southeastern Udachne. Russian forces also advanced into the northeastern-most houses, taking up positions there. Forward Russia units are likely further down this street by now, as reports indicate that the grey zone expands further west compared to the grey zone south of the railway line.
Keep in mind, Udachne is the second to last settlement in the way of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with only one very small village (Molodetske) still in the way, with this village being right on the regional border.
+ ~0.32km² in favour of Russia.
After intensified assault operations on Udcahne from the east, Russian forces were able to advance from their positions in the windbreaks on either side of the railway tracks and established control over the industrial zone in southeastern Udachne. Russian forces also advanced into the northeastern-most houses, taking up positions there. Forward Russia units are likely further down this street by now, as reports indicate that the grey zone expands further west compared to the grey zone south of the railway line.
Keep in mind, Udachne is the second to last settlement in the way of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with only one very small village (Molodetske) still in the way, with this village being right on the regional border.
+ ~0.32km² in favour of Russia.
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Geolocated footage and recent reports from multiple reliable sources indicate that Russian forces advanced on the western flank of Pokrovsk.
Moving from west to east, Russian forces advanced further up the railway line east of Kotlyne, taking up new positions in the southern windbreak. They also advanced and gained control over part of a grove, as well as a couple of small Ukrainian trench fortifications there.
Further west, Russian forces advanced up two treelines. On the western treeline, Russia had more success, reaching an intersection with three treelines, and advanced down both of them. They are now trying to bypass any remaining Ukrainian positions in the treeline that Russia failed to capture to the east of the initial advance here.
Additionally, Russian forces advanced in the village of Zvirove, capturing the western houses of the village and linking up with the assault groups to the southeast.
+ ~3.07km² in favour of Russia
Moving from west to east, Russian forces advanced further up the railway line east of Kotlyne, taking up new positions in the southern windbreak. They also advanced and gained control over part of a grove, as well as a couple of small Ukrainian trench fortifications there.
Further west, Russian forces advanced up two treelines. On the western treeline, Russia had more success, reaching an intersection with three treelines, and advanced down both of them. They are now trying to bypass any remaining Ukrainian positions in the treeline that Russia failed to capture to the east of the initial advance here.
Additionally, Russian forces advanced in the village of Zvirove, capturing the western houses of the village and linking up with the assault groups to the southeast.
+ ~3.07km² in favour of Russia
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There are currently two Russian Kalibr missile-carriers active in the waters of the Black Sea, with a total possible salvo of up to 16 Kalibr cruise missiles.
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AMK Mapping
With the likely fall of Solone and Vozdyvzhenka, we can already see the early stages of the pincers forming around Pokrovsk. I believe the next goal is to take the small Terykon southeast of the key village of Udachne (western flank) while also cutting the…
Russian forces are intensifying their shelling of the city of Rodynske (north of Pokrovsk). As I previously stated, the goal is to reach Rodynske - likely from the eastern flank of Pokrovsk.
Rodynske to Pokrovsk is sort of like what Ivanivske was to Bakhmut. Russia wants to capture it to get to the rear of the city and threaten an encirclement.
Rodynske to Pokrovsk is sort of like what Ivanivske was to Bakhmut. Russia wants to capture it to get to the rear of the city and threaten an encirclement.
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Yesterday, Russian KAB glide bombs stuck the Zhovtnevyi military complex in Bilytske, Donetsk Oblast. A large fire broke out as a result. There are reports of injuries among the civilian population, although as usual, no word on Ukrainian military casualties.
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According to the Israeli Broadcasting Corporation (KAN), Netanyahu is consulting with the negotiating team returning from Doha, and the security council will convene shortly.
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Recent reports from reliable sources indicate that Russian forces made a small advance north of Makiivka.
Russian forces advanced from positions in the northwestern part of Makiivka, capturing the forest plantations to the north of the village, and established a buffer-zone in the low-lying ground.
+ ~1.10km² in favour of Russia.
Russian forces advanced from positions in the northwestern part of Makiivka, capturing the forest plantations to the north of the village, and established a buffer-zone in the low-lying ground.
+ ~1.10km² in favour of Russia.
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Recent reports from multiple reliable sources indicate that Russian forces made a small advance in Chasiv Yar, reaching the city centre.
Following a Ukrainian counterattack in this area, Russian forces were able to recapture the ground that they lost in one residential block. They reached the stadium and took up positions outside it. Battles are now underway for that stadium. Its loss will allow the Russians to begin attacking the city centre from the southeast.
+ ~0.06km² in favour of Russia.
Following a Ukrainian counterattack in this area, Russian forces were able to recapture the ground that they lost in one residential block. They reached the stadium and took up positions outside it. Battles are now underway for that stadium. Its loss will allow the Russians to begin attacking the city centre from the southeast.
+ ~0.06km² in favour of Russia.
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Geolocated footage indicates that Russian forces advanced in northern Kharkiv Oblast and have captured the northern part of the village of Tykhe.
This sector of the front line has remained relatively quiet for some time, but it appears that Russia was able to advance from positions in the forest plantations north of Tykhe, capturing some residential buildings and most of a forest. The rest of the village is likely in a grey zone.
It is unknown when this advance occurred due to the lack of footage and reports from this area, but we do know now that Russian forces are close to recapturing the village which they previously lost in a Ukrainian counterattack.
+ ~0.42km² in favour of Russia
This sector of the front line has remained relatively quiet for some time, but it appears that Russia was able to advance from positions in the forest plantations north of Tykhe, capturing some residential buildings and most of a forest. The rest of the village is likely in a grey zone.
It is unknown when this advance occurred due to the lack of footage and reports from this area, but we do know now that Russian forces are close to recapturing the village which they previously lost in a Ukrainian counterattack.
+ ~0.42km² in favour of Russia
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I personally believe that Israel is gearing up to annex the Palestinian controlled parts of The West Bank. Here are a few reasons why.
1. In their briefings and announcements on "anti-terrorist operations" in the West Bank, the IDF has begun referring to the West Bank as "Judea and Samaria". Judea and Samaria is the Israeli term for the West Bank (excluding east Jerusalem). They control 230 settlements there, with another 165 "islands" which are under partial or total Palestinian authority (PA) administration (there are anti-PA resistance groups which operate there too). The fact that they have changed what they are officially calling it could represent a change in policy towards the PA-administered parts of the West Bank and while it may seem mainly symbolic, it could foreshadow the future of these territories.
2. The Gaza ceasefire and hostage deal will undoubtably significantly affect Netanyahu's popularity among Israelis, and he will probably lose the remaining support from among the hardliners, nationalists, and far-right Israelis, which was already damaged after his first response to Iran after operation True Promise I but partially restored after his stronger response to Iran's operation True Promise II and the invasion of Lebanon. To retain what support he will still have among right-wing Israelis, Netanyahu may choose a war and annexation of the West Bank. The resistance factions that fight Israel's daily incursions into parts of the PA-Administered West Bank are much weaker than Hamas and their allied factions that operate in the Gaza Strip, due to a number of reasons including lack of manpower and no solid supply lines. This would make a potential invasion much easier and would almost guarantee success.
3. The Palestinian authority has significantly warmed their relations with Israel in recent months, with the primary example of this being their direct cooperation with the IDF against the Jenin Camp Battalion in the West Bank city of Jenin. They have transmitted intelligence to the IDF regarding the location of Palestinian fighters from the Jenin Camp Battalion, allowing for precise Israeli drone strikes and even air strikes on certain areas of the city. The PA has also been fighting against the Jenin Camp Battalion on the ground, firing RPGs at buildings, and engaging in close-quarter combat on the edges of the Jenin refugee camp. The head of the Jenin camp battalion was among a number of fighters were killed in Jenin as a result of these clashes and precision strikes. This could suggest that the Palestinian authority is looking to increase their relations with Israel to ward off a future full-scale IDF invasion of the West Bank, which would undoubtably bring a lot of destruction to densely populated civilian areas.
4. Israeli Defence Minister Katz has cancelled all administrative detention orders against West Bank settlers. Administrative detention is primarily used against Palestinians; however, many settlers are held in administrative detention too.
It's also important to keep in mind that the next Israeli elections are set to take place in 2026, and Netanyahu may want to prove to the Israeli people that he can secure a victory, with said victory possibly being in the form of a war in the West Bank and its subsequent annexation.
1. In their briefings and announcements on "anti-terrorist operations" in the West Bank, the IDF has begun referring to the West Bank as "Judea and Samaria". Judea and Samaria is the Israeli term for the West Bank (excluding east Jerusalem). They control 230 settlements there, with another 165 "islands" which are under partial or total Palestinian authority (PA) administration (there are anti-PA resistance groups which operate there too). The fact that they have changed what they are officially calling it could represent a change in policy towards the PA-administered parts of the West Bank and while it may seem mainly symbolic, it could foreshadow the future of these territories.
2. The Gaza ceasefire and hostage deal will undoubtably significantly affect Netanyahu's popularity among Israelis, and he will probably lose the remaining support from among the hardliners, nationalists, and far-right Israelis, which was already damaged after his first response to Iran after operation True Promise I but partially restored after his stronger response to Iran's operation True Promise II and the invasion of Lebanon. To retain what support he will still have among right-wing Israelis, Netanyahu may choose a war and annexation of the West Bank. The resistance factions that fight Israel's daily incursions into parts of the PA-Administered West Bank are much weaker than Hamas and their allied factions that operate in the Gaza Strip, due to a number of reasons including lack of manpower and no solid supply lines. This would make a potential invasion much easier and would almost guarantee success.
3. The Palestinian authority has significantly warmed their relations with Israel in recent months, with the primary example of this being their direct cooperation with the IDF against the Jenin Camp Battalion in the West Bank city of Jenin. They have transmitted intelligence to the IDF regarding the location of Palestinian fighters from the Jenin Camp Battalion, allowing for precise Israeli drone strikes and even air strikes on certain areas of the city. The PA has also been fighting against the Jenin Camp Battalion on the ground, firing RPGs at buildings, and engaging in close-quarter combat on the edges of the Jenin refugee camp. The head of the Jenin camp battalion was among a number of fighters were killed in Jenin as a result of these clashes and precision strikes. This could suggest that the Palestinian authority is looking to increase their relations with Israel to ward off a future full-scale IDF invasion of the West Bank, which would undoubtably bring a lot of destruction to densely populated civilian areas.
4. Israeli Defence Minister Katz has cancelled all administrative detention orders against West Bank settlers. Administrative detention is primarily used against Palestinians; however, many settlers are held in administrative detention too.
It's also important to keep in mind that the next Israeli elections are set to take place in 2026, and Netanyahu may want to prove to the Israeli people that he can secure a victory, with said victory possibly being in the form of a war in the West Bank and its subsequent annexation.
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The Israeli Cabinet has approved the Gaza ceasefire and Hostage deal. It will now go to the Knesset to be approved.
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