Activity on Russian strategic comms was noted over the past hour, indicating that a Russian missile strike involving Tu-95MS strategic bombers could take place today.

On the northern front in eastern DR Congo, violent clashes continue between the Congolese Armed Forces (FADRC), and M23 rebels. FADRC forces appear to be putting up much fiercer resistance, compared to the southern front where they completely collapsed, resulting in a rapid M23 advance to the international border with Burundi.

Congolese government forces (FADRC) have begun fleeing from the city of Uvira in the South Kivu Province of the DR Congo.

Uvira is just opposite Burundi's largest city of Bujumbura and is approximately 60 km from the "frontline".

There are currently ~8 Tu-95MS aircraft stationed at Olenya Air Base in Murmansk, presumably all equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles.

Yesterday, 1 flew from Olenya to Engels-2 air base, to be equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles.

Currently there are two Tu-95MS airborne, which departed from Engels-2. It is currently unknown whether they are redeploying the Olenya with Kh-101 cruise missiles or are just conducting training.

All in all, the patterns indicate that a missile strike looks unlikely to take place today in my opinion, (maybe a 40% chance), but we will see.

There are quite a few Geran-2 drones active over Ukraine right now, and 3 Kalibr missile carriers departed the Novorossiysk port to the waters of the Black Sea, with a total possible salvo of up to 24 Cruise missiles.

Unknown missile over Mykolaiv Oblast

4 Kalibr cruise missiles over Mykolaiv, northwestern course.

Entered Kirovohrad Oblast, northern course.

They are now flying to Kremenchuk, northeastern course.

I don't have my missile map on my new computer yet, but this is the approximate path of the 4 Kalibr missiles, which are flying close together.

Kalibrs over/near Kremenchuk city

Kalibrs took a U-turn to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Southeastern course.

They split into two groups.

2 to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast
2 past Kremenchuk (further behind than I previously thought)

The 2 that went to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast are maneuvering along the Dnipropetrovsk - Poltava border, east of the Dnipro River.

They are now flying northeast just south of the Dnipropetrovsk - Poltava border, towards Berestyn, Kharkiv Oblast.

An Iskander-M ballistic missile just struck Kharkiv.

Another explosion in Kharkiv Oblast.

They struck Berestyn, which is where the Kalibrs are headed.

All 4 Kalibrs are flying towards western Kharkiv Oblast, in two groups.