Changes on the frontline in the third week of February 2025 (Feb 15-21):
+ ~108.09km² in favour of Russia
+ ~13.44km² in favour of Ukraine
That's an average of:
+ ~15.44km² in favour of Russia per day
+ ~1.92km² in favour of Ukraine per day
During the second week (week before) of February the daily average advances for each side were:
+ ~11.00km² in favour of Russia per day
+ ~2.65km² in favour of Ukraine per day
This means that Russia's average daily rate of advance has increased by around 40.4%, while Ukraine's has decreased by around 27.5%.
Breakdown by regions:
Russia:
Donetsk Oblast: + ~85.90km²
Kursk Oblast: + ~20.05km²
Kharkiv Oblast: + ~2.14km²
Ukraine:
Donetsk Oblast: + ~7.91km²
Kursk Oblast: + ~2.59km²
Luhansk Oblast: + ~2.75km²
Kharkiv Oblast: + ~0.19km²
As for settlements captured in the past week:
Russia has captured:
Darino (Kursk Oblast)
Sverdlikovo (Kursk Oblast)
Fanaseevka (Kursk Oblast)
Berezivka (Donetsk Oblast)
Pishchane (Donetsk Oblast)
Ulaky (Donetsk Oblast)
Novoocheretuvate (Donetsk Oblast)
Novosilka (Donetsk Oblast)
Ukraine has captured:
None
Colour code for the maps:
Yellow = Russian advances in the past week
Blue = Ukrainian advances in the past week
Note: some of these changes will have occurred before the week began, so don't take these numbers as exact figures of the change in territorial control.
+ ~108.09km² in favour of Russia
+ ~13.44km² in favour of Ukraine
That's an average of:
+ ~15.44km² in favour of Russia per day
+ ~1.92km² in favour of Ukraine per day
During the second week (week before) of February the daily average advances for each side were:
+ ~11.00km² in favour of Russia per day
+ ~2.65km² in favour of Ukraine per day
This means that Russia's average daily rate of advance has increased by around 40.4%, while Ukraine's has decreased by around 27.5%.
Breakdown by regions:
Russia:
Donetsk Oblast: + ~85.90km²
Kursk Oblast: + ~20.05km²
Kharkiv Oblast: + ~2.14km²
Ukraine:
Donetsk Oblast: + ~7.91km²
Kursk Oblast: + ~2.59km²
Luhansk Oblast: + ~2.75km²
Kharkiv Oblast: + ~0.19km²
As for settlements captured in the past week:
Russia has captured:
Darino (Kursk Oblast)
Sverdlikovo (Kursk Oblast)
Fanaseevka (Kursk Oblast)
Berezivka (Donetsk Oblast)
Pishchane (Donetsk Oblast)
Ulaky (Donetsk Oblast)
Novoocheretuvate (Donetsk Oblast)
Novosilka (Donetsk Oblast)
Ukraine has captured:
None
Colour code for the maps:
Yellow = Russian advances in the past week
Blue = Ukrainian advances in the past week
Note: some of these changes will have occurred before the week began, so don't take these numbers as exact figures of the change in territorial control.
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The Tulkarm Brigade has denied responsibility for yesterday’s Tel Aviv bus bombings, contradicting claims made by several sources.
The Tulkarm brigade used to be subordinated under the Al-Quds brigades (the armed wing of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad), but became its own armed group in 2022. It is based in the West Bank city of Tulkarm.
They are currently engaged in clashes with Israeli special forces who are attempting to clear the Tulkarm Refugee camp and the Nour Shams refugee camp.
The Tulkarm brigade used to be subordinated under the Al-Quds brigades (the armed wing of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad), but became its own armed group in 2022. It is based in the West Bank city of Tulkarm.
They are currently engaged in clashes with Israeli special forces who are attempting to clear the Tulkarm Refugee camp and the Nour Shams refugee camp.
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Two stages have been erected in Gaza - one in the Nuseirat Refugee Camp in central Gaza, and another in Rafah, Southern Gaza, for the 7th hostage exchange.
The site in Nuseirat will be used to release 4 hostages kidnapped on October 7, while the site in Rafah will be used to release two prisoners kidnapped in 2014 and 2015 respectively.
The Red Cross convoy is on its way, with the exchange expected to occur at 9am local time.
Israel is expected to release approximately 600 Palestinian prisoners in return.
The site in Nuseirat will be used to release 4 hostages kidnapped on October 7, while the site in Rafah will be used to release two prisoners kidnapped in 2014 and 2015 respectively.
The Red Cross convoy is on its way, with the exchange expected to occur at 9am local time.
Israel is expected to release approximately 600 Palestinian prisoners in return.
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This morning, two more Tu-95MS strategic bombers redeployed from Olenya Air Base to Engels-2 Air Base, for the purpose of being equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles. They will probably conduct the return flight to Olenya within the next 48 hours.
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Russian forces expanded their northern bridgehead on the western bank of the Oskil River, entering the village of Topoli.
They advanced from their positions in the forest plantations on the western bank of the river, and moved through the trees to the central houses of Topoli. They were able to take up new positions there and pushed the rest of the village into the grey zone.
+ ~0.47km² in favour of Russia
They advanced from their positions in the forest plantations on the western bank of the river, and moved through the trees to the central houses of Topoli. They were able to take up new positions there and pushed the rest of the village into the grey zone.
+ ~0.47km² in favour of Russia
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In the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces made important advances, capturing a large section of the northern part of Lysivka.
After months of very little success here, Russian forces finally broke through Ukrainian positions, and established control over the central part of the village. This threatens any remaining Ukrainian formations in the southern part with encirclement.
It also complicates any future attacks on or near the village of Dachenske.
+ ~0.40km² in favour of Russia.
After months of very little success here, Russian forces finally broke through Ukrainian positions, and established control over the central part of the village. This threatens any remaining Ukrainian formations in the southern part with encirclement.
It also complicates any future attacks on or near the village of Dachenske.
+ ~0.40km² in favour of Russia.
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Correction of the frontline in favour of Ukraine:
Ukrainian forces retain control over the forests west of Nadiivka in western Donetsk Oblast, with the grey zone now extending to the westernmost houses of Nadiivka, where Ukrainian forces may hold positions.
While it is possible that part of this was a counterattack, in my opinion it was likely never in the grey zone in the first place.
+ ~0.78km² in favour of Ukraine.
Ukrainian forces retain control over the forests west of Nadiivka in western Donetsk Oblast, with the grey zone now extending to the westernmost houses of Nadiivka, where Ukrainian forces may hold positions.
While it is possible that part of this was a counterattack, in my opinion it was likely never in the grey zone in the first place.
+ ~0.78km² in favour of Ukraine.
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Russian forces are continuing their advance in the Komar direction, and expanded their bridgehead on the western bank of the Mokri Yaly River.
They advanced from positions in the northern part of Novoocheretuvate, moving along a treeline which runs next to the O0509 road, reaching the southern outskirts of Skudne.
They also advanced along a parallel forested area, and then a treeline that runs west from the northern end of the forest, linking up with the groups on the southern outskirts of Skudne.
+ ~0.50km² in favour of Russia.
They advanced from positions in the northern part of Novoocheretuvate, moving along a treeline which runs next to the O0509 road, reaching the southern outskirts of Skudne.
They also advanced along a parallel forested area, and then a treeline that runs west from the northern end of the forest, linking up with the groups on the southern outskirts of Skudne.
+ ~0.50km² in favour of Russia.
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2 Tu-95MS strategic bombers redeployed from Engels-2 Air Base to Olenya Air Base.
These aren’t the ones that flew there from Olenya earlier today, but are more likely to be ones that took part in the simulated launch maneuvers over the Caspian three days ago. Three of the four aircraft landed at Engels, while one did the full return trip to Olenya.
This means that it’s likely that these are two of those three that landed at Engels, meaning they probably weren’t even equipped with missiles when simulating the launch maneuver, as most Tu-95s redeploy to Engels to be equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles.
These aren’t the ones that flew there from Olenya earlier today, but are more likely to be ones that took part in the simulated launch maneuvers over the Caspian three days ago. Three of the four aircraft landed at Engels, while one did the full return trip to Olenya.
This means that it’s likely that these are two of those three that landed at Engels, meaning they probably weren’t even equipped with missiles when simulating the launch maneuver, as most Tu-95s redeploy to Engels to be equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles.
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One of the explosions in Kryvyi Rih.
There are reports of large columns of smoke over the city, and a fire at the impact site, with fire brigades and medical teams rushing there.
There are reports of large columns of smoke over the city, and a fire at the impact site, with fire brigades and medical teams rushing there.
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Yet another large-scale Geran-2 drone attack was carried out on Odesa Oblast. As many as 10 direct hits were recorded, with reports of fires at industrial sites, as well as at a transformer substation at a railway hub.
From the industrial sites, civilians reported sounds indicative of secondary detonations, suggesting ammunition was stockpiled in some areas.
Emergency crews, including fire brigades are at the scenes.
From the industrial sites, civilians reported sounds indicative of secondary detonations, suggesting ammunition was stockpiled in some areas.
Emergency crews, including fire brigades are at the scenes.
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