🇲🇲 - Anti-junta rebels ambushed 2 military vehicles carrying food and ammunition in the Pauk Khaung Township, Bago Region.

Rebels sources claimed 9 Tatmadaw soldiers were killed as a result.

Russian forces have captured the last stronghold in the village of Bilohorivka, Luhansk Oblast.

Ukrainian forces have held the defence of the now ruins of this village for over 2 years. While it's too early to announce the capture of Bilohorivka, it will likely occur in the coming days.

The Ukrainian 72nd mechanised brigade has reportedly arrived in the Pokrovsk direction, replacing the 153rd mechanised Brigade.

The 72nd brigade previously fought in and around Vuhledar, and saw some of its personnel surrounded last year. It was withdrawn from battle for replenishment, which lasted approximately 4 and a half months.

For the first time since the initial incursion, Ukrainian forces now control less than 400km² in Kursk Oblast, down from 1,200km² at its peak.

Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that Israel is postponing the release of Palestinian prisoners until the next hostage release, due to the nature Hamas’ ceremonies at the hostage release points.

The ~600 prisoners who were released yesterday will be returned to their cells.

NASA FIRMS data shows that at least one Russian Geran-2 drone struck the “Glinsko-Rozbyshevskaya" oil depot. A large fire has broken out at the impact site, with multiple oil tanks being on fire.

Rare footage of an Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) FPV drone striking a Russian-Malian Army military base in Tessalit, Mali.

Russian forces are continuing their advance in the southwestern part of the Kursk salient, and have entered the village of Lebedevka.

Russian forces advanced from positions in northern Sverdlikvovo, through the fields, and into the eastern houses. They were able to take up positions in the southeastern part of the village. Fighting is now ongoing for the central part.

It is possible that Russian forces entered the northeastern houses, on the northern bank of the Loknya River, however for now, due to a lack of reliable information, I have placed it in the grey zone.

+ ~1.89km² in favour of Russia.

In the southeastern part of the Kursk salient, Russian forces continued to reverse Ukrainian progress from their latest "counteroffensive".

After securing a foothold in the western houses of Cherkasskaya Konopelka, Russian forces moved deeper into the village, reaching the central part. They then began moving along the Ulanok - Makhnovka road, and along the forest plantation in the low-lying ground, reaching the southeastern part of Cherkasskaya Konopelka.

Russian forces then quickly moved through the village, clearing it of a Ukrainian presence from two directions. Ukrainian forces were pushed to the treeline to the north.

+ ~2.59km² in favour of Russia.

Made some changes to how I make the maps. I decreased the size of the mini-map and topographic map, and removed the unnecessary part of the scale. Any more feedback is greatly appreciated.

Russian forces are continuing to expand their northern bridgehead on the western bank of the Oskil River, and have captured the village of Topoli, next to the international border.

Russian forces advanced from positions in the central part of Topoli, and expanded their zone of control to include the rest of the houses in the village.

As these positions are in the low-lying ground, and Ukrainian forces maintain control over the tactical heights, the bridgehead remains precarious. However, a lack of Ukrainian manpower in the area, combined with the fact that Russian forces have linked up the bridgehead to the international border, suggests that this bridgehead will only expand in the future.

+ ~1.59km² in favour of Russia.

P.S. I added the frontlines to the topographic map in the top-left corner.

Russian forces from the 76th separate reconnaissance battalion advanced in the Siversk direction and captured the last Ukrainian stronghold in the village of Bilohorivka.

This stronghold is in the form of a bunker, at the backfill of the chalk quarry known as the "White Mountain". Forces were concentrated in the industrial zone, and advanced around the northern end of the White Mountain, before storming the Ukrainian bunker, capturing it.

This was what held up the Ukrainian lines in and around Bilohorivka, and provided control over the nearby forests and quarry. This fortified junction also allowed Ukrainian forces to conduct maneuverable counterattacks by using hidden approaches to through treelines and forest plantations.

Now that Russia has captured it, the tactical situation in Bilohorivka has become much worse for Ukraine. It risks the encirclement of the remaining Ukrainian formations in the village and further complicates movement in and out of positions. This forces Ukraine to hold the line with heavy artillery and FPV drone strikes.

Now that the position has fallen, Russian forces will begin to move along the last street of the village and attempt to clear any remaining Ukrainian positions in the basements of the ruins. For now, this street remains in the grey zone.

There are also unconfirmed reports of Russian advanced in the forests and strongholds on the tactical heights south of Bilohorivka.

The imminent fall of Bilohorivka will significantly undermine the stability of Ukraine's Siversk defence, as Bilohorivka was the primary defensive node of the first line of defence. It will also open up the flanks, and weaken logistics, as Russian forces are now further forward, reaching new firing lines, allowing for the striking of rear positions, therefore reducing the speed of the delivery of ammunition and other key resources. This also disrupts rotations of AFU personnel.

Meanwhile, the frontline was corrected in favour of Ukraine in the southern part of the Serebryanske Forest around the Siversky Donets River. At some point, Ukrainian forces advanced to new positions in the forests northwest of Bilohorivka. The frontline was also adjusted on the southern bank of the river, with Ukrainian forces retaking certain positions in the low-lying ground east of Hryhorivka that were previously marked in the grey zone, reaching the border with Luhansk Oblast.

+ ~2.78km² in favour of Ukraine
+ ~0.48km² in favour of Russia

Just some thoughts on the attritional state of the war in Ukraine:

For those wondering, Russia does not have a massive "big arrow" attack planned anywhere. This is a war of attrition, which is currently working in their favour. Russia is successfully attriting Ukraine through means of artillery and MLRS bombardment, glide bomb strikes, missile strikes, Geran-2 drone attacks, and through FPV drones strikes, and drone-dropped explosives.

While its costly for Russia, its more costly for Ukraine. Even if it was more costly for Russia, the war of attrition would still be working in their favour.

The movement we see on the frontline is a part of the war of attrition. The advances we see are a partially biproduct of these attacks. Obviously, these advances have tactical goals too - they want to take key positions, especially those on the tactical heights, and important fortifications which hold up a line of defence (like what we are seeing in Bilohorivka).

Even if Russia chose to not advance and go full-on defence, they would suck Ukrainian forces into counteroffensives, collapsing their manpower situation even further, but this would take much longer than actively attacking and advancing, and would lower the morale of Russian troops, hence why they don't do this (obviously there are other reasons, this post is not meant to be a super detailed analysis covering every important point).

The best option for Russia is to continue their attacks, but in a way where they minimise their losses as much as possible, while still being able to capture key positions. This is seen in the form of avoiding frontal assaults, and instead methodically destroying Ukrainian defences, manpower concentrations, ammunition dumps, logistical infrastructure, rear infrastructure, among others, therefore forcing Ukraine to either retreat from key positions, or funnel in more soldiers to die. Which choice they make is obviously dependent on the section of the frontline and if it is deemed "important" by the Ukrainian command, as well as the situation on the strategic level across the frontline, and the situation on the tactical level in said sector.

Often Ukrainian forces will find themselves in salients, or "cauldrons", where they are surrounded on three sides, making movement in and out of the salient very difficult, or in some cases, virtually impossible. One example of this is west of Kurakhove, where we saw Ukrainian forces encircled in their fortifications west of Dachne, as well as in the village of Ulaky. Other examples can be seen in Vuhledar, Avdiivka, Velyka Novosilka, among others. This is due to both the incompetence of the Ukrainian command, and the PR-based tactics which are employed so often by Ukraine - although this is not the point that I'm getting at. The point is, Russia knows that Ukraine will make these mistakes and takes advantage of it. This is another tactic that Russia employs to ensure that they will take important ground and positions, with minimal losses.

While some areas of the frontline don't always play in Russia's favour, often due to the topographical nature of the territory not favouring a pincer movement and the possible subsequent formation of a cauldron, Russia can use of their superior fire power to keep their losses at a minimum.

Keep in mind, Russia is not perfect at their tactics, and the purpose of this post is not to praise them on the tactics and paint the picture that they have perfected the "art" of attritional warfare. There are many situations, such as in Kursk, near Terny, Avdiivka, Bilohorivka, Vuhledar, etc, where Russia has used frontal assaults on heavily fortified Ukrainian areas, resulting in the attacks either being successful with heavy losses, or repelled with heavy losses. This shows that many local Russian commanders are not yet up to the new standards of the Russian military and are incompetent in their tactics on the tactical level.

(continued from above) All in all, while the situation greatly favours Russia (yes, even while their advances have slowed down), big arrow attacks are not going to occur until the Ukrainian military as a whole is either on the brink of falling apart or has already fallen apart (likely the latter in my opinion). Do not expect another run on Kyiv, or other major rear Ukrainian cities - it's as unrealistic as Nafos claiming that Crimea will be liberated by the end of the year.

Late night thoughts on the war in Ukraine are fun to write about. Those who know me know that I love writing, so let me know if you want to see more about this, and what you would like me to write about.

The Ukrainian air force reports the largest Russian Geran-2 drone attack on Ukraine since the beginning of the war:

They claim:
267 launched
138 shot down
119 suppressed with Electronic Warfare (EW) or returned to Russia
10 impacts

The number of drones launched seems relatively accurate (maybe slightly more than reality), but as usual - the interception rates are BS.

Saw this earlier and forgot to post it lol