Late night thoughts on the war in Ukraine are fun to write about. Those who know me know that I love writing, so let me know if you want to see more about this, and what you would like me to write about.
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AMK Mapping
The Ukrainian air force reports the largest Russian Geran-2 drone attack on Ukraine since the beginning of the war: They claim: 267 launched 138 shot down 119 suppressed with Electronic Warfare (EW) or returned to Russia 10 impacts
The number of drones launched seems relatively accurate (maybe slightly more than reality), but as usual - the interception rates are BS.
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Two Israeli airstrikes were carried out on southern Lebanon a short while ago, targeting areas near the villages of Tzur and Zabkin, as well as between the villages of Deir Qanun and Ma'rov.
The IDF reported that they were targeting a military site containing rocket launchers and weapons, in which Hezbollah activity was apparently identified. They also claimed that several other rocket launches were struck.
At the same time, an Israeli reconnaissance drone is active in the skies of the Lebanese capital of Beirut, and GPS disruptions are occurring at and around the site of the late Hezbollah secretary general Hassan Nasrallah's funeral, which is expected to commence in less than an hour.
The IDF reported that they were targeting a military site containing rocket launchers and weapons, in which Hezbollah activity was apparently identified. They also claimed that several other rocket launches were struck.
At the same time, an Israeli reconnaissance drone is active in the skies of the Lebanese capital of Beirut, and GPS disruptions are occurring at and around the site of the late Hezbollah secretary general Hassan Nasrallah's funeral, which is expected to commence in less than an hour.
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Saw this earlier and forgot to post it lol
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Polling stations in Germany have opened for the 2025 snap German federal election, where 630 members will be elected to the 21st Bundestag, including the chancellor.
The last opinion polls showed the centre-right EPP coalition of the CDU and CSU parties polling at 32% with a strong lead over the far-right AFD party who was polling at 20%. The incumbent centre left SPD party is polling in 3rd place at 14.5%, tailed relatively closely by the Greens at 12%.
The EPP coalition would almost certainly have to form a larger coalition government, and who they pick would depend on a number of factors, one of the main ones being how many of the minor parties reach the 5% threshold to gain seats in the Bundestag. If AFD secures enough seats, then it's possible that EPP would wish to form a government just with them, however if the minor parties take some of AFDs seats, then EPP would be forced to find two partners.
Then there is the SPD, who will have to gain enough seats to convince the EPP coalition to pick them as a partner. If SPD aligns with more of EPPs policies than AFD, and a possible minor party joins in, then it would be possible for a coalition government to be formed without AFD. The Greens are largely out of the question, due to their stances on many issues not aligning enough with EPP.
The last opinion polls showed the centre-right EPP coalition of the CDU and CSU parties polling at 32% with a strong lead over the far-right AFD party who was polling at 20%. The incumbent centre left SPD party is polling in 3rd place at 14.5%, tailed relatively closely by the Greens at 12%.
The EPP coalition would almost certainly have to form a larger coalition government, and who they pick would depend on a number of factors, one of the main ones being how many of the minor parties reach the 5% threshold to gain seats in the Bundestag. If AFD secures enough seats, then it's possible that EPP would wish to form a government just with them, however if the minor parties take some of AFDs seats, then EPP would be forced to find two partners.
Then there is the SPD, who will have to gain enough seats to convince the EPP coalition to pick them as a partner. If SPD aligns with more of EPPs policies than AFD, and a possible minor party joins in, then it would be possible for a coalition government to be formed without AFD. The Greens are largely out of the question, due to their stances on many issues not aligning enough with EPP.
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Correction of the frontline in favour of Russia:
In the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces advanced in the village of Lysivka at some point, capturing most of the southern streets.
They advanced from their positions in the southeastern houses of the village, and moved west, capturing one street, and moving onto the next - approximately 40% of which was captured. This levels out the frontline in the village and will allow for easier assaults into the western houses.
The fall of Lysivka will significantly complicate any future Ukrainian attacks on Dachenske. Lysivka is also an important defensive node and holds up the Novoukrainka - Mykolaivka line.
+ ~0.98km² in favour of Russia.
In the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces advanced in the village of Lysivka at some point, capturing most of the southern streets.
They advanced from their positions in the southeastern houses of the village, and moved west, capturing one street, and moving onto the next - approximately 40% of which was captured. This levels out the frontline in the village and will allow for easier assaults into the western houses.
The fall of Lysivka will significantly complicate any future Ukrainian attacks on Dachenske. Lysivka is also an important defensive node and holds up the Novoukrainka - Mykolaivka line.
+ ~0.98km² in favour of Russia.
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Russian forces advanced in western Donetsk Oblast, and completed the capture of the village of Nadiivka.
Russian forces advanced in two main areas. In the south, they pushed Ukrainian forces out of their remaining positions in the western houses of the village, and in the north, they attacked the agricultural buildings on the northwestern outskirts of the settlement, capturing them. Ukrainian forces pulled back to the forests to the west.
The fall of Nadiivka fully secures Russia's northern flank and may allow for some detachments to be sent further south to close the salient between Andriivka and Preobrazhenka.
+ ~0.51km² in favour of Russia.
Russian forces advanced in two main areas. In the south, they pushed Ukrainian forces out of their remaining positions in the western houses of the village, and in the north, they attacked the agricultural buildings on the northwestern outskirts of the settlement, capturing them. Ukrainian forces pulled back to the forests to the west.
The fall of Nadiivka fully secures Russia's northern flank and may allow for some detachments to be sent further south to close the salient between Andriivka and Preobrazhenka.
+ ~0.51km² in favour of Russia.
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Russian forces continued their offensive in the Komar direction, and have made progress along the eastern bank of the Mokri Yaly River.
Russian forces advanced down two treelines, securing most of the rest of the tactical heights, before capturing another treeline and a forest plantation in the low-lying ground.
The grey zone has been expanded to include areas on the opposite heights, due to the placement of Russian equipment headed for the village of Dniproenerhiya.
+ ~1.98km² in favour of Russia.
Russian forces advanced down two treelines, securing most of the rest of the tactical heights, before capturing another treeline and a forest plantation in the low-lying ground.
The grey zone has been expanded to include areas on the opposite heights, due to the placement of Russian equipment headed for the village of Dniproenerhiya.
+ ~1.98km² in favour of Russia.
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Russian forces continued their offensive in the Komar direction and have made significant progress northwest of Velyka Novosilka.
Russian forces advanced from the intersection of four treelines, reaching the southern outskirts of the village of Burlatske, gaining a foothold on a treeline perpendicular to the one that leads up to Burlatske.
They also advanced down the other treelines that run off the intersection, capturing some positions in the west, while reaching new areas on the tactical heights in the east, where more treelines were captured, as well as a forest plantation in the low-lying ground.
+ ~9.26km² in favour of Russia.
Russian forces advanced from the intersection of four treelines, reaching the southern outskirts of the village of Burlatske, gaining a foothold on a treeline perpendicular to the one that leads up to Burlatske.
They also advanced down the other treelines that run off the intersection, capturing some positions in the west, while reaching new areas on the tactical heights in the east, where more treelines were captured, as well as a forest plantation in the low-lying ground.
+ ~9.26km² in favour of Russia.
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I always find it funny how people *want* to find things to complain about, whether that be with politics, geopolitics, or to do with one person. I've noticed this more and more over the course of the war in Ukraine.
Something to keep in mind, especially when reading the news.
Something to keep in mind, especially when reading the news.
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The centre-right CDU party has won the 2025 snap German Federal Elections with 28.6% of the vote, as Olaf Scholz has conceded defeat. The far-right AFD party came in second with 20.8%, while Olaf Scholz's centre-left SPD part came in third with 16.4%.
However, SPD has ruled out forming a coalition with CDU, and CDU has ruled out forming a coalition with AFD. This suggests that there could be a political crisis in Germany in the near future, as none of the major parties want to work with each other.
To win a majority, you need 316+ seats out of 630 in the Bundestag. If CDU and AFD were to form a coalition, then they would form a majority of 340 seats. If CDU were to form a coalition with SPD, they would fall short by 5 seats at 311, meaning that a minor party would have to join their coalition to pass the 316-seat threshold.
However, SPD has ruled out forming a coalition with CDU, and CDU has ruled out forming a coalition with AFD. This suggests that there could be a political crisis in Germany in the near future, as none of the major parties want to work with each other.
To win a majority, you need 316+ seats out of 630 in the Bundestag. If CDU and AFD were to form a coalition, then they would form a majority of 340 seats. If CDU were to form a coalition with SPD, they would fall short by 5 seats at 311, meaning that a minor party would have to join their coalition to pass the 316-seat threshold.
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A Ukrainian drone struck the Ryazan oil refinery. A large fire has broken out at the impact site.
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In Syria, the Suweida military council has announced their formation, declared de facto autonomy, and rejected integration with the HTS-led Syrian government.
They vowed to build a "secular and democratic state", and to work with regional and global powers.
They vowed to build a "secular and democratic state", and to work with regional and global powers.
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The IDF announced that they have once again increased the operational readiness in the area surrounding the Gaza Strip.
This comes as Israeli forces returned approximately 600 Palestinian prisoners to their cells in the occupied parts of the West Bank, in violation of the hostage and ceasefire agreement with Hamas and their allies.
This comes as Israeli forces returned approximately 600 Palestinian prisoners to their cells in the occupied parts of the West Bank, in violation of the hostage and ceasefire agreement with Hamas and their allies.
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