Another Kalibr-carrier has been deployed to the Black Sea. The total possible has increased to 24 Kalibr cruise missiles.

Increasing the chances of a Russian missile attack to 80%.

10 Tu-95s are now airborne, all from Olenya. This is going to be a huge attack

Kalibr launches from the Black Sea.

An unknown number of Tu-95s departed from Engels-2 air base in Saratov Oblast.

4 out of 11 of the Tu-95s conducted launch maneuvers.

Due to the likelihood of an imminent missile attack on Ukraine, all notifications on this channel will temporarily silenced so not to spam you guys with updates (they will come through quite quickly). If you are interested in the updates, make sure to keep an eye on the channel as you wont be notified otherwise.

As many as 16 Kalibrs are expected in Ukrainian airspace in ~10 minutes time.

The Kalibrs should be in Ukrainian airspace very soon

Threat of Iskanders from Crimea

The first group of Kalibrs is flying northwest through Kherson Oblast.

Kalibr group 1 flies north through the Beryslav district of Kherson Oblast in the direction of Kryvyi Rih.

Reports of Kalibrs flying over the black sea to Odesa too

Iskanders on Zaporizhzhia

Kalibr group 1 (2 pcs) flies west of Kryvyi Rih
Group 2 (4 pcs) flies to Bashtanka from the southeast
Group 3 (unknown number of missiles) flies to Ochakiv, Mykolaiv Oblast, but might turn to Odesa.

Disappeared

A 4th and possibly 5th group are flying towards Odesa/Chornomorsk/Zatoka

Group 1 continues north
Group 2 changes enters Kirovohrad Oblast and is flying north.
No news from group 3
Group 4 (4 pcs) flies to Chornomorsk.

It appears that group 3 got mixed up with group 4. They are the same group

Group 1 is flying towards Kremenchuk, Poltava Oblast
Group 3 is approaching the Zatoka area of Odesa Oblast.

Explosions in Odesa Oblast, possibly air defence work

1 Kalibr was shot down near Zatoka, 2 left in that group