It's become clear to me that the Tu-95s will not launch Kh-101 cruise missiles today. I will finish my reporting on the drone strikes for now, as I only cover them live during missile strikes. Thanks to all the new subscribers for joining!
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The Russian offensive near Zhelanne appears to have stalled for the past couple of days.
This could be for two reasons:
1. The Ukrainians are putting up heavy resistance and holding the line
2. The Russians are being very careful and consolidating their new positions near the outskirts while attacking elsewhere.
I'm personally more inclined to believe the latter as Ukraine's manpower issues in this area significantly hampers their ability to put up significant resistance.
It appears that the Russians will continue with their attritional strategy for the foreseeable future rather than launching big arrow attacks that would result in heavy losses.
This could be for two reasons:
1. The Ukrainians are putting up heavy resistance and holding the line
2. The Russians are being very careful and consolidating their new positions near the outskirts while attacking elsewhere.
I'm personally more inclined to believe the latter as Ukraine's manpower issues in this area significantly hampers their ability to put up significant resistance.
It appears that the Russians will continue with their attritional strategy for the foreseeable future rather than launching big arrow attacks that would result in heavy losses.
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AMK Mapping
The Russian offensive near Zhelanne appears to have stalled for the past couple of days. This could be for two reasons: 1. The Ukrainians are putting up heavy resistance and holding the line 2. The Russians are being very careful and consolidating their…
Big arrow attacks wont come until Ukraine's manpower issues become too critical for them to handle.
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Forwarded from Middle East Observer (ME_OBSERVER)
⚡️ Al-Aqsa TV:
The head of the political bureau of #Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, was assassinated in Tehran
The head of the political bureau of #Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, was assassinated in Tehran
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Middle East Observer
⚡️ Al-Aqsa TV: The head of the political bureau of #Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, was assassinated in Tehran
This comes as Hezbollah's commander-in-chief was killed in a precision strike. War might be on the horizon..
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Forwarded from 🔻Warfare Analysis NEWS
🔻Israeli media: Hezbollah will be able to launch 20 rockets every hour or two to exhaust the home front in Tel Aviv and its suburbs
[NP]
[NP]
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Hebrew channel 12 confirmed that Israel was behind the assassination on Ismail Haniyeh. This is very bad.
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Palestinian sources are reporting that a massive rally is going to be held in Nablus in the West Bank in less than 4 hours time. This is in response to the killing of Ismail Haniyeh which occurred a few hours ago.
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An Iranian Source claimed that the Missile which Struck the Home of Hamas Chief Political Leader Ismail Haniyeh last night in Tehran, killing him, was launched by an Israeli Aircraft that was outside of Iranian Airspace. Interestingly, no explosions were reported in Tehran at the time of the strike.
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Russian forces likely expanded their foothold in the Zhovtnevyl district, advancing by nearly a block of houses, and also likely advanced from the Zhovtnevyl micro-district, across 260 metres of open land, capturing the Chasiv Yar radio station, therefore gaining a foothold in the Novyi Micro-district.
This would put the Ukrainian fortifications near the canal at a serious risk of encirclement. If this advance is true, expect a Ukrainian withdrawal from those trenches soon.
This would put the Ukrainian fortifications near the canal at a serious risk of encirclement. If this advance is true, expect a Ukrainian withdrawal from those trenches soon.
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Regarding the situation in the Kupyansk direction - Pishchane sector:
Russian forces are reportedly advancing north of Pishcane. This is likely for two reasons:
1. In an attempt to protect the northern flank of the spearhead from Ukrainian counterattacks while also making travel through the spearhead much safer.
2. To get behind the Ukrainian groupings on the tactical heights behind Tabaivka.
Once the flank is secured, the Russians have three choices. Attack south of Pishchane down the gulley to protect their southern flank before advancing to Ukrainian fortifications, advance to westwards to Ukrainian fortifications without protecting their southern flank, or do both options simultaneously.
Either way, the Russians will attack westwards in the near future, likely with the goal of seizing the three key trench fortifications that lie near the villages of Kruhlyakivka and Kolisynkivka - both of which are on the eastern bank of the Oskil river.
This will drive a wedge through the Ukrainian bridgehead on the eastern bank of the Oskil river, and if Russian forces can cut the Kruhlyakivka-Kupyansk road, then it will significantly complicate logistics for the northern bridgehead and degrade the defence of the fortress village of Synkivka in the north.
This will also take the Ukrainian groupings in the north of the bridgehead into a salient, with their backs against the Oskil River, facing attacks from all directions. If the bridges are all blown, then Ukraine will be forced to conduct a chaotic withdrawal using pontoon bridges. Ukrainian groupings there will also probably be subjected to mass FAB strikes, resulting in heavy casualties.
Russian forces are reportedly advancing north of Pishcane. This is likely for two reasons:
1. In an attempt to protect the northern flank of the spearhead from Ukrainian counterattacks while also making travel through the spearhead much safer.
2. To get behind the Ukrainian groupings on the tactical heights behind Tabaivka.
Once the flank is secured, the Russians have three choices. Attack south of Pishchane down the gulley to protect their southern flank before advancing to Ukrainian fortifications, advance to westwards to Ukrainian fortifications without protecting their southern flank, or do both options simultaneously.
Either way, the Russians will attack westwards in the near future, likely with the goal of seizing the three key trench fortifications that lie near the villages of Kruhlyakivka and Kolisynkivka - both of which are on the eastern bank of the Oskil river.
This will drive a wedge through the Ukrainian bridgehead on the eastern bank of the Oskil river, and if Russian forces can cut the Kruhlyakivka-Kupyansk road, then it will significantly complicate logistics for the northern bridgehead and degrade the defence of the fortress village of Synkivka in the north.
This will also take the Ukrainian groupings in the north of the bridgehead into a salient, with their backs against the Oskil River, facing attacks from all directions. If the bridges are all blown, then Ukraine will be forced to conduct a chaotic withdrawal using pontoon bridges. Ukrainian groupings there will also probably be subjected to mass FAB strikes, resulting in heavy casualties.
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Update from the Pokrovsk direction:
Geolocated footage and new reliable reports indicate that Russian forces are continuing to advance in the direction of Pokrovsk and Hrodivka.
Firstly, geolocated footage shows that Russian forces did indeed make further progress along the railway line on the tactical heights and have seized positions west of Vovche. As usual, the Russians likely used the cover of the windbreaks on either side of the railway tracks to prevent them from being hit by Ukrainian FPV drones or artillery.
Secondly, geolocated footage shows that Russian forces made a small advance southwest Lozuvatske. Here they captured a forested area and more of the orchards. Reliable reports also indicate that Russian forces closed the new pocket formed north of Prohres, seizing the treelines where the Ukrainian positions were and capturing the 1.86km long treeline outside Ivanivka. Russian forces also reportedly advanced in the direction of Lysychne.
And finally, geolocated footage shows that Russian forces advanced northwest of Lozuvatske, capturing positions in the trees near the Kazenya reservoir. Reliable sources claimed that Russian forces advanced further and are fighting in the first couple houses of Tymofiivka.
Overall, the whole front near Ocherteyne and Prohres continues to move westwards in the direction of Pokrovsk. It is important to note that this is still occurring in an attritional manner, and "big arrow" attacks are not expected for now.
Colours for map:
Red = Confirmed Russian controlled territory
Yellow = Confirmed Russian advances
Purple = Likely Russian advances
Geolocated footage and new reliable reports indicate that Russian forces are continuing to advance in the direction of Pokrovsk and Hrodivka.
Firstly, geolocated footage shows that Russian forces did indeed make further progress along the railway line on the tactical heights and have seized positions west of Vovche. As usual, the Russians likely used the cover of the windbreaks on either side of the railway tracks to prevent them from being hit by Ukrainian FPV drones or artillery.
Secondly, geolocated footage shows that Russian forces made a small advance southwest Lozuvatske. Here they captured a forested area and more of the orchards. Reliable reports also indicate that Russian forces closed the new pocket formed north of Prohres, seizing the treelines where the Ukrainian positions were and capturing the 1.86km long treeline outside Ivanivka. Russian forces also reportedly advanced in the direction of Lysychne.
And finally, geolocated footage shows that Russian forces advanced northwest of Lozuvatske, capturing positions in the trees near the Kazenya reservoir. Reliable sources claimed that Russian forces advanced further and are fighting in the first couple houses of Tymofiivka.
Overall, the whole front near Ocherteyne and Prohres continues to move westwards in the direction of Pokrovsk. It is important to note that this is still occurring in an attritional manner, and "big arrow" attacks are not expected for now.
Colours for map:
Red = Confirmed Russian controlled territory
Yellow = Confirmed Russian advances
Purple = Likely Russian advances
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Forwarded from Middle East Observer (ME_OBSERVER)
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⚡️ From the place of Ismail Haniyeh's assassination in Tehran this morning 💔💔😭
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AMK Mapping
An Iranian Source claimed that the Missile which Struck the Home of Hamas Chief Political Leader Ismail Haniyeh last night in Tehran, killing him, was launched by an Israeli Aircraft that was outside of Iranian Airspace. Interestingly, no explosions were reported…
Following the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, Netanyahu plans to hold an Operational Assessment with Senior Military Leaders at noon (in 50 mins time).
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