Guys, remember that just because one interesting event happens, it doesn’t mean something major is about to happen next in relation to that.

Russia capturing three villages in Sumy Oblast does not indicate an offensive on Sumy city in the near future.

Russia launching three KAB glide bombs at Kherson does not suggest a Russian river crossing.

A 2km advance in a critical part of the frontline is not the prelude to an imminent collapse.

Don’t get ahead of yourselves. This is a war of attrition. The goal is to wear down your enemy. Russia is effectively wearing down Ukraine, but Ukraine is also a big country which has had a lot of support put behind it.

While they are severely weakened and their manpower issues are visible, mobilisation is having its effect. Defences are also being mass-constructed. The end of the war is not in sight and it will take some time for a Russian victory.

Any peace plans are unlikely to go anywhere and Zelensky isn’t about to cede territory. We’re likely going to witness a full Russian victory to the Dnipro River - but this is a long way away.

Russia may enjoy an advantage in nearly every aspect of this war, but they still have issues that are yet to be resolved. Yes, the collapse is underway, but it is in stages. Ukraine is not weak enough for a complete military collapse and Russian breakthrough. Of course the Russian advances are not and will not be linear, for now they are relatively slow and steady.

Putin knows that a massive, all out offensive is counterproductive. Why do such a thing when you are winning? Why bomb Kyiv over and over again when you are winning on the battlefield? It would make no sense.

Patience is a virtue.

Early in the war Ukraine could actively counter any Russian advances, as well as perform an impressive counter-offensive that took the Russians by surprise.

We’re currently at the stage where Ukraine no longer has this ability, they are in the stage I like to call the ‘plug’ stage. You see it with small Russian advances, 2-3km deep into Ukraine lines, forcing Ukraine to react by moving manpower, therefore plugging the gap and halting the Russians.

As a result of this the reserves that Ukraine has available is depleting, not being replaced at a fast enough rate. Obviously this is not being seen on the frontline as it is not an issue at the frontline. Only when the Reserve numbers are low enough to force Ukraine to decide which ‘plugs’ are worth doing will we start to see a collapse.

Ukraine themselves are fast tracking this with the Kursk offensive, Belgorod debacle, and likely future poor decisions.

This too. Poor decision making is playing a major role. We are already seeing the effect of this, in fact since the failed counterattacks at Vovchansk and Lyptsi in mid 2024.

The effects of these decisions will become more apparent as time passes. Time will tell if Russia will take advantage of these to their fullest extent.

These decisions extend to the “plug” theory. Where Ukraine chooses to shift their units will have major effects. Prioritization is already taking place and will become more common in the near future.

Unidentified missile over Sumy Oblast. Possibly just MLRS

It flew towards Lebedyn and disappeared.

Senior advisor to the Pakistani Prime Minister Syed Shah stated in an interview in Al-Jazeera that he has received information that India will attack Pakistan within hours or days. "We are ready to respond to any Indian attack targeting our country," he added.

A U.S. airstrike targeted the Al-Hawk District in the port city of Hodeidah, Yemen.

Sirens are sounding in the Israeli settlement of Geva Binyamin, West Bank due to the threat of infiltration by militants.

Repeated sirens in Geva Binyamin. Apparently a large hole in the fence was discovered. IDF forces are yet to arrive on scene.

The hole in the fence was identified and Israeli soldiers are conducting searches in the settlement. It sounds as if someone cut a hole and ran off just to cause panic.

Update: Four drones have impacted the city. From what I've gathered, 2 hit the port, 1 hit the Cherʹomushky district, and one hit the Moldavnka district in the vicinity of Kartamyshevskaya Lane. One drone was shot down, likely near the city centre.

There are still at least two drones over/near the city, with 13+ more flying in.