Market just witnessed the largest wave of Open Interest decline in this entire cycle.
This drop reflects how aggressively overleveraged positions were wiped out, triggering a massive round of liquidations.
Since Q2 2024, we’ve already seen three major liquidation flushes, first a 30% wipeout, then 35%, and now a massive ~40% flush, the biggest so far.
Interestingly, a clear pattern has emerged: every time OI sees a major decline, the following quarter sets new highs, and Bitcoin’s price has consistently followed that trajectory.
If this pattern repeats again, the next quarter could see both OI and Bitcoin price pushing into new high territory.
This drop reflects how aggressively overleveraged positions were wiped out, triggering a massive round of liquidations.
Since Q2 2024, we’ve already seen three major liquidation flushes, first a 30% wipeout, then 35%, and now a massive ~40% flush, the biggest so far.
Interestingly, a clear pattern has emerged: every time OI sees a major decline, the following quarter sets new highs, and Bitcoin’s price has consistently followed that trajectory.
If this pattern repeats again, the next quarter could see both OI and Bitcoin price pushing into new high territory.
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Exchange inflows just hit their highest levels in years. In past, every time we have seen such extreme spikes, inflows sharply cool off afterward.
In March exchange Inflow peak, then through April, inflows gradually dropped while BTC consolidated near the lows. By late April to May, Bitcoin started a strong rally.
We’re seeing a somewhat similar setup now. If November’s inflow peak starts to drop from here, December likely becomes a consolidation month and January can turn strong.
But don't forget November has not marked the top yet, If inflows don’t come down, that’s a problem.
High and sustained inflows = potential sell pressure = downside risk for BTC.
For now, this is a “wait for the inflow rollover” setup. Trend flips only when inflows start cooling off.
In March exchange Inflow peak, then through April, inflows gradually dropped while BTC consolidated near the lows. By late April to May, Bitcoin started a strong rally.
We’re seeing a somewhat similar setup now. If November’s inflow peak starts to drop from here, December likely becomes a consolidation month and January can turn strong.
But don't forget November has not marked the top yet, If inflows don’t come down, that’s a problem.
High and sustained inflows = potential sell pressure = downside risk for BTC.
For now, this is a “wait for the inflow rollover” setup. Trend flips only when inflows start cooling off.
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Strange that ct showing all kinds of data like 1064 days bull-cycle over, charts & TA to justify market sell off but everyone missed these two dates that matches perfectly with the crash and reversal.
On 29 Oct, Powell said "chances of a December rate cut were low." And exactly from that moment, Bitcoin started crashing straight from $115K down to $80K, brutal 30% crash without a single bounce or relief rally.
Then comes 21 November,
New York Fed President John Williams, said: “There is room for a rate cut in the near term.”
Immediately, December’s rate-cut probability shot back above 85%. And Bitcoin? It marked its exact local bottom at $80K on the same date 21 Nov.
From that bottom, BTC recovered 13% so far within just one week.
Are these statements just coincidences… or is someone in the background pulling the strings ?
On 29 Oct, Powell said "chances of a December rate cut were low." And exactly from that moment, Bitcoin started crashing straight from $115K down to $80K, brutal 30% crash without a single bounce or relief rally.
Then comes 21 November,
New York Fed President John Williams, said: “There is room for a rate cut in the near term.”
Immediately, December’s rate-cut probability shot back above 85%. And Bitcoin? It marked its exact local bottom at $80K on the same date 21 Nov.
From that bottom, BTC recovered 13% so far within just one week.
Are these statements just coincidences… or is someone in the background pulling the strings ?
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November Crypto Trading Volume Hits 5-Month Low
As per the data from The Block, November saw a major cooldown in crypto activity:
- Centralized exchanges:
Monthly trading volume dropped to $1.59 trillion, down 26.7% from October, the lowest since June.
- Decentralized exchanges:
Volume fell to $397.78 billion, continuing the broader slowdown.
Also recorded significant fund outflows, reflecting reduced institutional participation during the month. Overall, November marked one of the quietest months for trading this year.
As per the data from The Block, November saw a major cooldown in crypto activity:
- Centralized exchanges:
Monthly trading volume dropped to $1.59 trillion, down 26.7% from October, the lowest since June.
- Decentralized exchanges:
Volume fell to $397.78 billion, continuing the broader slowdown.
Also recorded significant fund outflows, reflecting reduced institutional participation during the month. Overall, November marked one of the quietest months for trading this year.
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Federal Reserve has officially ended Quantitative Tightening after 3 years.
The Fed has stopped shrinking its balance sheet. In total, they reduced $1.6T in Treasuries and $600B in MBS during QT.
Now instead of cutting the balance sheet, the Fed will start buying T-bills to keep banking system reserves stable
which basically means slow, stealth liquidity support.
Now there are 2 important dates in December
9 Dec: FOMC Meeting
Markets are pricing an 87% probability of a 25 bps rate cut.
18-19 Dec: BOJ MPM
Bank of Japan may raise rates from 0.5% to 0.75%. This is huge because Japan is the world’s funding market
and tightening here affects global liquidity flows.
The Fed has stopped shrinking its balance sheet. In total, they reduced $1.6T in Treasuries and $600B in MBS during QT.
Now instead of cutting the balance sheet, the Fed will start buying T-bills to keep banking system reserves stable
which basically means slow, stealth liquidity support.
Now there are 2 important dates in December
9 Dec: FOMC Meeting
Markets are pricing an 87% probability of a 25 bps rate cut.
18-19 Dec: BOJ MPM
Bank of Japan may raise rates from 0.5% to 0.75%. This is huge because Japan is the world’s funding market
and tightening here affects global liquidity flows.
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In the last 30 days, Buyback Season has been heating up.
Across top protocols, a massive $183M+ has been spent on buybacks and three names dominate the leaderboard:
• HYPE: $82.89M
The biggest buyback program in the entire market, powered entirely by protocol fees.
• ASTER: $52.88M
Strong, consistent buybacks backed by solid revenue flows.
• PUMP: $21.25M
The only protocol doing 100% revenue buybacks.
Across top protocols, a massive $183M+ has been spent on buybacks and three names dominate the leaderboard:
• HYPE: $82.89M
The biggest buyback program in the entire market, powered entirely by protocol fees.
• ASTER: $52.88M
Strong, consistent buybacks backed by solid revenue flows.
• PUMP: $21.25M
The only protocol doing 100% revenue buybacks.
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Coinbase’s open payment protocol x402 hits $60 million in transactions.
AI Agents are now started entering the payments industry with full force. For the first time ever, autonomous agents are paying for APIs, data, cloud resources, and on-demand services without human intervention, using crypto rails.
What we’re witnessing right now is likely just the beginning of a massive revolution in how money moves across networks.
AI Agents are now started entering the payments industry with full force. For the first time ever, autonomous agents are paying for APIs, data, cloud resources, and on-demand services without human intervention, using crypto rails.
What we’re witnessing right now is likely just the beginning of a massive revolution in how money moves across networks.
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Bitcoin’s price action is starting to look interesting again, despite the rebound back to 84K, the spot market hasn’t really shown up. Spot sellers are still dominating, and they didn’t contribute much to this bounce.
Instead, it’s the futures market that has been driving the entire move.
In fact, over the last two days, the heaviest selling pressure has come from Binance and Coinbase, yet even futures which led the pump are now showing early signs of fatigue. Even ETFs aren’t showing any real demand right now in fact, we’ve seen outflows over the last two days.
So the big question is:
How long can this rally continue without real spot demand stepping in?
Instead, it’s the futures market that has been driving the entire move.
In fact, over the last two days, the heaviest selling pressure has come from Binance and Coinbase, yet even futures which led the pump are now showing early signs of fatigue. Even ETFs aren’t showing any real demand right now in fact, we’ve seen outflows over the last two days.
So the big question is:
How long can this rally continue without real spot demand stepping in?
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Is Inflation Heating Up Again? And Why Is the Fed Still Comfortable Cutting Rates?
September’s data sent mixed signals, Headline - PCE climbed to 2.8%, its highest in almost a year. While core PCE, the one the Fed actually focuses on slipped to 2.8% instead of rising to 2.9%.
So on the surface, inflation looks hotter… but underneath, it’s still cooling.
That’s exactly why the Fed can continue with rate cuts. They don’t judge policy on one month of noise, they look at the broader direction. And right now, the direction shows core inflation steadily moving lower and economic momentum slowing just enough to reduce price pressures.
Inflation expectations are still stable which gives the Fed even more confidence to shift its focus toward supporting growth rather than tightening further.
September’s data sent mixed signals, Headline - PCE climbed to 2.8%, its highest in almost a year. While core PCE, the one the Fed actually focuses on slipped to 2.8% instead of rising to 2.9%.
So on the surface, inflation looks hotter… but underneath, it’s still cooling.
That’s exactly why the Fed can continue with rate cuts. They don’t judge policy on one month of noise, they look at the broader direction. And right now, the direction shows core inflation steadily moving lower and economic momentum slowing just enough to reduce price pressures.
Inflation expectations are still stable which gives the Fed even more confidence to shift its focus toward supporting growth rather than tightening further.
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ETHEREUM JUST FLIPPED VISA + MASTERCARD
Ethereum is on pace to settle nearly $6 TRILLION in stablecoin volume this quarter alone and Q4 isn’t even over.
Market Caps:
• Visa: $640B
• Mastercard: $498B
• Ethereum: $365B
Think long term.. the network with a smaller market cap is already doing more heavy lifting than the financial giants. And don't forget Ethereum isn’t just payments.
Ethereum is on pace to settle nearly $6 TRILLION in stablecoin volume this quarter alone and Q4 isn’t even over.
Market Caps:
• Visa: $640B
• Mastercard: $498B
• Ethereum: $365B
Think long term.. the network with a smaller market cap is already doing more heavy lifting than the financial giants. And don't forget Ethereum isn’t just payments.
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GM to the most important economic week… let’s get to what’s coming.
Tuesday: JOLTS data will give a clearer picture of how strong or weak the labor market really is.
Wednesday: All eyes on the Fed decision, followed by Powell’s press conference, which could shift market direction within minutes. With an 86% chance of a 25 bps cut, Wednesday is shaping up to be the most critical day
Thursday: Jobless claims will either support or challenge the current slowdown narrative.
Tuesday: JOLTS data will give a clearer picture of how strong or weak the labor market really is.
Wednesday: All eyes on the Fed decision, followed by Powell’s press conference, which could shift market direction within minutes. With an 86% chance of a 25 bps cut, Wednesday is shaping up to be the most critical day
Thursday: Jobless claims will either support or challenge the current slowdown narrative.
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Alpha updates. 🪓
U.S. PPI & Core PPI data drops in 1 hour. Expected (YoY): Core PPI: 2.7% If the data comes in hotter than expected, rate-cut odds drop. If it comes in as expected or cooler, the soft-landing narrative holds and rate-cut odds go up.
Everyone’s pricing in a 25 bps rate cut…
But what if the Fed surprises with a 50 bps cut?
Last year, September 2024, the same thing happened, markets expected 25 bps…
Fed delivered 50 bps, and the next quarter Bitcoin rallied to a new ATH at $108K by mid-December.
Of course, last year’s rally had extra fuel, Trump’s election win and buzz around a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. But still, If we get 50 bps, the upside will be worth watching..
But what if the Fed surprises with a 50 bps cut?
Last year, September 2024, the same thing happened, markets expected 25 bps…
Fed delivered 50 bps, and the next quarter Bitcoin rallied to a new ATH at $108K by mid-December.
Of course, last year’s rally had extra fuel, Trump’s election win and buzz around a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. But still, If we get 50 bps, the upside will be worth watching..
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