🇯🇵🇨🇳 I believe that Japan has lost its time.

Japan had to raise its defense spending to at least 2% of GDP by the 2010s.

If China invades Taiwan in the next few years, how many months can Japan fight? Perhaps one month would be the limit.

🧵 by Itoyan

🇦🇺🪖 As part of the #AUKUS security pact, Australia is purchasing a fleet of nuclear-powered submarines. This move reflects Australia's strategy to project power beyond its shores.

But this strategy may be based on a mistaken assumption, say RAND experts.

📎 RAND

🇺🇸🇨🇳 "America needs to calibrate its stance: reassure Mr Xi that his red lines remain intact, but convince him that aggression carries unacceptable risks. The goal should not be to solve the Taiwan question, but to defer it."

📎 The Economist

🇹🇼🪖 Taiwan has outlined key legislative proposals on how it will govern during a potential wartime emergency as China steps up its military aggression.

📎 Nikkei Asia

🇨🇳🇹🇼 Former Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou will visit China this month, his office said on Sunday, the first time a former or current Taiwanese leader has visited since the defeated Republic of China government fled to the island in 1949.

📎 Reuters

🇨🇳🇺🇸 In 2022, US-sanctioned Huawei Technologies reported $23.8 bn in R&D. With that money, they've been able to replace 13,000+ parts and redesign 4,000 circuit boards with Chinese substitutes to combat sanctions. With sanctions, there's always a workaround.

📎 Reuters

⛽️📉 Oil prices sink — with West Texas Intermediate plunging below $65 a barrel — as escalating investor concerns about a global banking crisis erode appetite for risk assets including commodities.

📎 Bloomberg

🇬🇧⛽️ “Tsunami”of UK strikes to bring BP, Shell and Total operations to standstill

The industrial action will involve at least 1,400 staff and hit major oil and gas companies including BP, CNRI, EnQuest, Harbour, Ithaca, Shell and Total, the Unite union said.

“Dozens” of platforms and offshore installations will be brought to a “standstill” due to the specialised roles its members undertake, the union added.

📎 Tradewinds

🇪🇺☢️ Last Energy, a startup developing advanced, smaller nuclear power plants, completed 4 deals worth $18.9 billion to build 34 reactors in Europe.

📎 Bloomberg

🇮🇶⛽️ Iraq plans to announce within a month a supplementary bidding round for the development of a number of Baghdad’s eastern fields, including the Mansuriya natural gas field.

📎 Bloomberg

🇺🇸🇪🇺 "The U.S. and its NATO allies will face a challenging set of economic trade-offs and political realities in achieving higher defense spending. The challenge will be exacerbated by additional private investment needs in a more dangerous world."

📎 Wall Street Journal

🇺🇸🇪🇺🪖 NATO to accelerate deployment of up to 300,000 soldiers on eastern border.

📎 Yahoo News

🇪🇺🪖 Explosives shortage threatens EU drive to arm Ukraine

Europe’s push to make arms for Ukraine has been hobbled by a shortage of explosives, which industry insiders fear will delay efforts to boost shell production by as much as three years.

Scarce supplies of gunpowder, plastic explosives and TNT have left industry unable to rapidly meet expected EU orders for Ukraine, regardless of how much money is thrown at the problem, according to officials and producers.

“The fundamental problem is that the European defence industry is not in good shape for large-scale war production,” said one German official.

📎 Financial Times

🇪🇺🪖 Language for EU ammo target over the next 12 months for Ukraine is now looser. EU will be "aiming at" a million shells over the next year.

🧵 by Laurence Norman

🇧🇾🇷🇺🇺🇦 Belarus has helped Russia from the first days of the invasion of Ukraine—but its president has stopped short of sending his own soldiers to fight. Could that change?

📎 The Economist

🇺🇦🇷🇺🪖 “The battle in Bakhmut began more than 6 months ago, but became a focus over the winter as both sides redeployed forces to Bakhmut from Kherson. Bakhmut thereby acquired a degree of political significance on both sides.”

🧵 by RALee85