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Foreign Policy, Non-Interventionism, and the Draft

The Homeland Institute’s latest poll was inspired in large part by the ongoing Gaza crisis. It was conducted between late December, 2023 and early January, 2024. Related topics include the legacy of the Global War on Terror, the US’s relationship with Israel, and opposition to the draft.

Major findings are that:
Only 23.1% of all respondents and 30.2% of Republican respondents can think of a concrete example of Israel aiding American interests off the top of their head.

68.4% of respondents oppose direct intervention in the Gaza conflict with airstrikes or boots on the ground.

25.7% of respondents age 18-29 would oppose a draft through peaceful protest, and 16.9% through non-violent civil disobedience.

4.4% of respondents age 18-29 said they would oppose a draft through violence against government property, and 4.4% through violence against government officials.

The findings of this poll are particularly relevant given the recent US airstrikes on the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen, which risk escalating the Gaza crisis into a broader regional or even global conflict.

https://homelandinstitute.org/2024/01/foreign-policy-non-interventionism-and-the-draft/

🗳 🇹🇼 🇨🇳 Pro-independence William Lai Ching-te of the DPP is set to win Taiwan’s presidential election. | Thomas Hon Wing Polin

"At this stage outsiders cannot know if there has been any polling chicanery, and it is futile to speculate. What is noteworthy and beyond doubt is that once again, the anti-DPP vote has been split -- severely this time -- after an earlier decision to field a joint ticket. The combined opposition vote would have easily beaten Lai’s tally.

Whether one or both opposition candidates were induced by the DPP or CIA/NED to split the ticket will never be investigated, not with the ruling party now gaining a third successive term.

What next? Chances are high that Beijing will reassess its policy towards Taiwan. For nearly two decades, the CPC had offered the island countless trade and economic privileges, most of them unilaterally. The centerpiece is the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA), which allowed Taiwan to accumulate a whopping US$156-billion bilateral trade surplus last year. Its neutralization could mean the loss of 2-3 million local jobs. Some 40% of the island’s exports go to the mainland (attached post, below).

ECFA and other longstanding carrots clearly haven’t had the desired effect of bringing Taipei and Beijing closer. In fact, the opposite has happened during the past eight years of DPP rule. The separatists have not only been brainwashing Taiwan people to revile the mainland but even cooperate actively with intensifying US plans to contain and confront China. More of the same lies in store the next four years.

If carrots are proven ineffective, the stick logically comes into play.

Withdrawal of economic privileges for Taiwan would be a relatively easy first step. Beijing will likely consider a range of other options as well, short of igniting war. They will remind Taiwanese that they cannot continue to have their cake and eat it too.

Indeed, despite occasional PLA exercises, Taiwan people have been notably confident about Beijing’s moderation, taking for granted the mainland’s patience, underlying goodwill and desire for peaceful reunification. So much so that even after the Pelosi Provocation (visit) of August 2022, surveys showed them much less anxious about a mainland “invasion” than folks on the other side of the world.

China’s leaders may start driving home this lesson with increasing forcefulness: Support for anti-reunification forces will have real"

📎 Thomas Hon Wing Polin

🗳 🇹🇼 🇨🇳 Mainland China sends ‘early warning’ ahead of Taiwan’s presidential election by suspending tariff cuts

Thomas Hon Wing Polin - 20 Dec 23:

"This move is a preview of how Beijing is likely to deal with Taiwan if William Lai of the separatist DPP wins the island’s leadership election next month.

Some 40% of all Taiwan’s exports go to the mainland. Because of preferential tariff treatment under ECFA, the island currently runs a US$156-billion bilateral trade surplus. That has kept Taiwan’s overall commerce in surplus. Without the free-trade pact, it would have a large deficit.

Sans ECFA, Taiwan industry as well as agriculture & fisheries, two mainstays of its economy, would also take heavy hits. Experts have estimated job losses of 2 to 3 million, out of a workforce of 11 million.

Beijing has a ready-made reason to terminate ECFA, which explicitly requires progress in the removal of trade tariffs. While the mainland has reduced or lifted levies on imports from Taiwan, the island imposes them on some 2,500 items from the mainland. The ruling DPP has shown no inclination whatsoever of removing them.

ECFA is a purely bilateral accord, so the WTO has no jurisdiction over any aspect of it.

For well over a decade, Beijing has tried to woo its estranged province with economic and other carrots -- to little avail, even during periods of KMT governance in Taipei. It could start to try the stick."

📎 Thomas Hon Wing Polin

🏖 🇹🇼 🇨🇳 Why are people posting colorful maps of the island of Taiwan ? | Zhao DaShuai

🔶️ "Oh well, here's a map of the island, with each colored sectors corresponding to several flat beaches viable for amphibious landing."

🔶️ "More economic and trade restrictions are in the works, after which we'll see."

📎 Zhao DaShuai 无条件爱国

🇫🇮 🧱 🇷🇺 "Yesterday the Finnish government again extended the closed border regime with Russia for a month. So far the deadline has been moved to February 11, but with a high probability it will not end there, given the course of the Finnish authorities."

📎 Rybar Force

Taiwanese politics are becoming much more entrenched in a position which is perceived as antagonistic by Beijing.

The United States needs to move much more swiftly to reshore semiconductor and other critical technologies. There are currently semiconductor related projects under construction in: Arizona, Texas, Idaho, Florida, New York and Ohio with more plants in the works.

This domestic boom (which is bringing much needed manufacturing jobs) is a major step in the right direction, largely enabled by the CHIPs act, but it is far from enough.

Many chip manufacturers are saying the United States will need at least another decade to reshore a secure manufacturing base, and the education programs currently being built are still in the nascent stages.

The United States must decouple from Taiwan, and the only way to do this is to become more assetive in the realm of domestic industrial policy.

Policymakers must look into local content requirements, direct financing of new semiconductor projects, and even more CHIPs style funding.

American security and prosperity cannot be put at risk by remaining in the middle of an internal ethnic conflict of the Chinese nation.

🗳 🇹🇼 🇨🇳 Lai Ching-te is the winner after being supported by 29% of all registered voters.

🔹️"5.6 million out of 19.5 million."

🔹"He got 40% of the vote"

🔹"Voter turnout was 75%"

🔹"So, he was backed by 30% of all voters — 40% of 75% = 30%"

🔹"In other words, 70% of Taiwanese adults did NOT want him!"

📎 S.L. Kanthan

🇵🇸 ❌️ 🇮🇱 Scenes of Al-Qassam Mujahideen clashing with Israeli soldiers and vehicles on the outskirts of the city of Khan Yunis, south of the Gaza Strip.

📢 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 Netanyahu:
"No one can stop us - not The Hague and not anyone else."

https://www.barrons.com/news/israel-s-netanyahu-says-no-one-will-stop-us-in-gaza-7fa8af73

⚓️ 🇺🇸 🇸🇴 Two Navy Seals are missing in the Gulf of Aden during a nighttime boarding operation according to two U.S. officials. search and rescue operations are continuing.

👤 Luis Martinez is an ABC News Senior Pentagon Reporter

📝 🇾🇪 🌍 The Houthis shifted attacks to the Gulf of Aden at the same time the Iranian Base ship Behshad shifted from its position in the Bab el Mandeb to one between Djibouti and Yemen

🏴‍☠️ 🚢 🌍 Given the current situation in the Red Sea, here is an updated graphic of events in the Bab-el-Mandeb region, visual lists vessels along with type of incidents reported by maritime security organizations in the region

🟢 more recent incidents highlighted green

📎 Damien Symon

It's a popular trend for leftist academics to deconstruct nationalism by pointing to its recency. They point to examples of empires past to show that multiculturalism has been the norm for most of history. Rome is especially popular in this regard.

But what does Rome actually tell us about race, ethnicity and politics? Was there a "Roman nationalism" modern academics have overlooked? This question is the topic of my latest Substack:

https://keithwoodspub.substack.com/p/ethnopolitics-in-the-roman-empire