🇺🇸❌⚖️🇺🇳 U.S. Defends Israel’s Occupation of the West Bank at Top U.N. Court

A U.S. official urged judges not to call for Israel’s withdrawal from occupied territory, arguing that Israel faced “very real security needs” and that a Palestinian state must be established for a lasting peace.

The defense came a day after the United States issued its third veto against a call for an immediate cease-fire in Gaza at the United Nations Security Council, a vote that drew an angry response from nations and aid groups that have urged a stop to the fighting to help Gaza’s civilians.

The latest show of American support for Israel was at the International Court of Justice in The Hague, where Richard C. Visek, the acting legal adviser at the U.S. State Department, urged a 15-judge panel not to call for Israel’s immediate withdrawal from occupied Palestinian territory.

He said that only the establishment of an independent Palestinian state “living safely and securely alongside” Israel could bring about lasting peace, repeating a longstanding U.S. position, but the prospect of which appears even more elusive amid the war in Gaza.

“This conflict cannot be resolved through violence or unilateral actions,” Mr. Visek said. “Negotiations are the path to a lasting peace.”

The court is hearing six days of arguments over the legality of Israel’s occupation of Palestinian-majority territories, including the West Bank and East Jerusalem, which has been the subject of years of debates and resolutions at the U.N. The hearings — involving more than 50 countries — were called long before Israel went to war against Hamas in Gaza, but have become part of a concerted global effort to stop the conflict and examine the legality of Israel’s policies toward Palestinians.

Even as the judges listened to arguments in the stately wood-paneled courtroom in the Netherlands, the dynamics of the Israeli occupation were playing out on the ground in the West Bank city of Jenin on Wednesday. In an overnight raid that the Israeli military said targeted “terrorism,” Israeli forces killed three people and detained at least 14 others.

🗄 Archive

🔗 https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/21/world/middleeast/us-israel-hague-court.html

🇷🇺💀🌍 Wagner in Africa: How the Russian mercenary group has rebranded

Russia is offering governments in Africa a "regime survival package" in exchange for access to strategically important natural resources, a major new report has found.

The multibillion dollar operations are now mostly being run as the Russian "Expeditionary Corps", managed by the man accused of being behind the attempt to murder Sergei Skripal using the Novichok nerve agent on the streets of the UK - a charge Russia has denied.

Control was to be handed to Gen Andrey Averyanov, head of Unit 29155, a secretive operation specialising in targeting killings and destabilising foreign governments.

But it seems Gen Averyanov's new business was not destabilising governments, but rather securing their future, as long as they paid by signing away their mineral rights.

In early September, accompanied by deputy Defence Minister Yunus-Bek Yevkurov, Gen Averyanov began a tour of former Wagner operations in Africa.

They started in Libya, meeting warlord Gen Khalifa Haftar. Their next stop was Burkina Faso where they were greeted by 35-year-old coup leader Ibrahim Traoré.

After that, they landed in the Central African Republic, possibly the most well-established Wagner operation on the continent, before heading to Mali to meet the leaders of the junta there.

On a subsequent trip they also met General Salifou Modi, one of the military men who seized power in Niger last year.

Readouts of the various meetings demonstrate that the two men were reassuring Wagner's partners on the continent that the demise of Prigozhin did not mean the end of his business deals.

Reports of the meeting with Capt Traoré of Burkina Faso confirmed cooperation would continue in "the military domain, including the training of Burkinabe officer cadets and officers at all levels, including pilots in Russia".

In short, the death of Prigozhin did not mean the end for the junta's relationship with Russia. In some ways, it would become deeper still.

The three West African states with close links to Wagner - Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso - have all experienced military takeovers in recent years. They have since announced their withdrawal from the regional bloc Ecowas, and the creation of their own "Alliance of Sahel States".

🔗 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-68322230

🇺🇸🇨🇳🇮🇱🇵🇸 The clear lesson here: Do not rely on our ability to predict if or when China might attack Taiwan — Elbridge Colby

Instead: Be ready.

“Some, perhaps subconsciously, are eager to have intelligence as a convenient scapegoat should debacles occur. But it falls to policymakers to realize that intelligence is always imperfect. For this reason, prediction should never take the place of preparedness.” — Elbridge Colby

How Was Israel Caught Off-Guard?

Hamas’ Oct. 7 attacks did not happen out of the blue. They were preceded by years of bitter conflict, ever since the group consolidated its control of the Gaza Strip in 2007. Months later, it remains deeply puzzling how Israel was caught so woefully unprepared.

Conventional explanations advanced over the years by numerous scholars and practitioners analyzing similar historical fiascoes provide part of the answer. The surprise can be attributed to abundant noise, deception, wishful thinking, groupthink, and failure of imagination. Nevertheless, careful analysis of the case at hand highlights several additional factors. The degree of surprise reflected an intelligence-collection shortfall on Hamas’ intentions.

There was an over-reliance on warning systems, a misguided policy and military attitude toward Hamas, and a toxic relationship between Israel’s top leadership and its defense and intelligence establishment. These factors both distracted the establishment and systematically discouraged a confrontation with Hamas. Taken together, these factors underscore the need for countries to recalibrate their expectations regarding warnings of potential attacks and to put a newfound emphasis on readiness rather than prediction.

🔗 https://warontherocks.com/2024/02/how-was-israel-caught-off-guard/

📎 Elbridge Colby

🇷🇺🇧🇾🇺🇦 What are Russian forces currently doing in Belarus? How has the Belarusian army evolved since 2022? Is another invasion from Belarus imminent?

The Belarusian Forces have not significantly changed since the invasion. Modernization is slow, with no notable increase in personnel. Minsk's aggressive rhetoric contrasts with its defensive posture. However, there have been some important changes.

Belarusians conducted brigade-level drills, which had never occurred previously. More importantly, in September 2023, Minsk launched the first-ever bilateral exercise when they placed one operational command against the other

Belarus Armed Forces now have a three-tier structure. The first includes operational forces (regular army), the second is Territorial Defence Forces (TDF), and the last is People's Militia.

Сall-ups via SMS were introduced. Previously, a call-up was to be delivered by post or a courier. Now, troops are mobilized almost instantly, significantly increasing the country's mobilization readiness.

The 2024 budget brought an additional BYN 0.7 billion increase to the armed forces spending, which means that their budget has increased by 350% since 2018 and 200% since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

In early January 2024, Radio Svaboda confirmed a military camp construction near Gomel. Satellite imagery analysis suggests that the construction is unfinished and is unlikely to have a significant impact, with the primary site at the moment covering a mere 650 square meters

While Wagner PMC still trains with the Belarusian Armed Forces, their primary focus is on joint exercises with Belarusian Internal Troops. They work on enhancing the force's capacity for missions like storming buildings, sniper operations, first aid, and explosives handling

The overall Wagner presence in the country significantly dropped by 2024. Satellite imagery comparison reveals a significant reduction in the size of Wagner's camp in Tsel, where Prigozhin and multiple Wagner commanders temporarily stayed before being assassinated in Russia.

Regular Russian troop presence in Belarus is limited, with Moscow maintaining a modest air presence. Two S-400 battalions, supplemented by Pantsir-S1 units, are positioned in Southern Belarus at the Prybytki and Velikii Bokov air bases.

The Belarusian Forces is a mobilization force. They maintain 4 mechanized brigades, each fielding 5 battalions (3 mechanized and 2 tanks). Yet, the peacetime posture of these formations means that they are only manned in 30-40% and mobilization would be needed.

Equipment fielded is still mostly of Soviet legacy, and although some efforts have been made in recent years to field modern samples, such as modernized T-72s, S-400s, Iskanders, or Su-30SMs, the armed forces are largely obsolete.

As a result, the probability of Belarus directly entering the war against Ukraine is currently low. However, as Minsk is capable of applying pressure on NATO's eastern flank through hybrid activities, shifts within the Belarusian Armed Forces require close observations.

Currently, no evidence indicates preparations for an invasion of Ukraine from the North. The limited Russian presence in Belarus is insufficient to replicate the 2022 scenario. While this doesn't guarantee the situation won't change, any preparations would not go unnoticed.

🔗 https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1760321130617770471.html

🇫🇷 French president, Emmanuel Macron, about communism:

"Because they are communists, they know nothing other than human brotherhood, children of the French Revolution, watchers of the universal revolution".

🔗 Fdesouche

🇫🇷 Macron ordered the burial of two Armenian communist French resistance fighters, Missak and Mélinée Manouchian at the French Pantheon, a former church, turned mausoleum by the revolutionary government after the fall of the French monarchy in 1789.

At the Pantheon are buried France's most "distinguished citizens", ranging from the likes of Voltaire and Jean-Jacques Rousseau, to generals of the Napoleonic wars, to politicians key to the rise of French republicanism like Émile Zola and Jean Jaurès, to scientists, writers and French Resistance fighters.

In his speech at the entombent of Missak and Mélinée, Macron made an hommage to communism criticising the "poison brought by fascism to Paris".

@CIG_telegram

🇬🇷☦️❌🏳️‍🌈 Metropolitan Seraphim of Piraeus: no more Holy Communion for those who voted for LGBTQ+ marriage and adoption of minor children by them

Metropolitan Seraphim of Piraeus, announced that those MPs who voted in favour of the abortionist law on LGBTQ+ marriage and the adoption of underage children by them, will no longer be able to receive Holy Communion in the Metropolis of Piraeus.

The measure concerns all three neo-democrats (Konstantinos Katsafados, Domna-Maria Michaelidou and Nikolaos Vlachakos), but also all the SYRIZA and PASOK MPs who voted for it.

In addition to the interruption of communion, it also decided to prohibit their invitation to any event of the Parishes, until "the effective repentance of the National Parliament's annulment of this obscene legislation".

Specifically, in Piraeus today, February 22, 2024, at the Cathedral of Panagia Triad of Piraeus, they met at the invitation of His Eminence Metropolitan Seraphim of Piraeus, Faliro, St. John of Rentis and Drapetsona, in an extraordinary priestly assembly on the subject: "Dealing with the consequences of the passing of the law for the "marriage" of persons of the same sex", N. 5089 Government Gazette A 27/17.2.2024.

🔗 https://trelogiannis.blogspot.com/2024/02/blog-post_143.html

🇮🇱❌🇵🇸 In first since Oct. 7, Smotrich says thousands of new settlement homes to be approved

For the first time since the Hamas-led October 7 atrocities, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich announces that the committee in charge of approving settlement construction in the West Bank will soon convene.

The announcement comes after Smotrich earlier today demanded that thousands of new settlement homes be constructed in response to the deadly terror attack this morning near Ma’ale Adumim.

A statement issued by Smotrich, who is also a minister in the Defense Ministry, says the committee will approve plans to build 2,350 units in Ma’ale Adumim, 300 in Keidar and 694 in Efrat.

“May every terrorist planning to harm us know that any lifting of a hand against Israeli citizens will be met with a death blow and the destruction, and the deepening of our eternal grip on the entire Land of Israel,” Smotrich is quoted as saying, calling the decision “an appropriate Zionist response.”

🔗 https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/pm-said-holding-meeting-on-smotrichs-demand-for-new-settlement-homes-in-maale-adumim/

🇮🇱❌🇵🇸🇺🇳 Netanyahu Unveils Israel's Plan for Postwar Gaza: Full Demilitarization and Closing UNRWA

According to a document published by the Prime Minister's Office, the short-term goals of the campaign remain unchanged: destroying the military capabilities and governmental infrastructure of both Hamas and Islamic Jihad, securing the release of the hostages and preventing any threat to Israel from the Gaza Strip in the future.

In the medium term, according to Netanyahu's plan, Israel will maintain freedom of military operation in Gaza, will set up a buffer zone and will engage in operations to thwart smuggling along the Egypt-Gaza border. The prime minister said that this would be done in conjunction with the United States and with the assistance of the U.S., although Egypt has expressed reservations over the deployment of Israeli troops along its border with Gaza. The postwar plan adds that Israel will also maintain security control over the West Bank.

Netanyahu's proposal also deals with the civic government of postwar Gaza. His proposal is that civic affairs and responsibility for public order in Gaza "will be based on professionals with managerial experience. These local officials must not be identified with states or organizations that support terror and must not receive salaries from them."

Netanyahu's plan goes on to say that Israel will work to ensure the permanent closure of the United Nations agency for Palestinian refugees, UNRWA, and the establishment of a new international body. The prime minister added that "rebuilding Gaza will only be possible once the Strip has been demilitarized and once a process of deradicalization has started. The rehabilitation plan will be carried out with funding from and under the leadership of countries of which Israel approves."

🗄 Archive

🔗 https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-02-23/ty-article/.premium/netanyahu-unveils-israels-plan-for-postwar-gaza-full-demilitarization-and-closing-unrwa/0000018d-d348-df79-a5cd-f37edde10000

🇺🇸🇮🇱🇵🇸 American president, Joe Biden, on X:

I won't mince words.

The overwhelming majority of Palestinians are not Hamas. And Hamas does not represent the Palestinian people.

In fact, they're also suffering as a result of Hamas' terrorism. We need to be clear-eyed about that reality.

🔗 POTUS

🇷🇺🇺🇦 Russia has broken the stalemate in Ukraine: Former US Defense secretary

The Russian military has broken the stalemate in the Ukraine war, Robert Gates, former CIA director and secretary of Defense, said Wednesday, following Moscow’s successful push to take the front-line city of Avdiivka.

“It’s no longer a stalemate. The Russians have regained momentum,” Gates told The Washington Post’s David Ignatius in a streaming interview. “Everything I’m reading is that the Russians are on the offensive along the 600-mile front.”

Russia has suffered staggering losses in the war, he noted, but with Ukraine now confronting artillery shortages due to flagging U.S. support, “the Russians are feeling that the tides have turned, and while there is much to be done, the initiative has passed to them,” Gates said.

“They have more and more supplies coming in — I’ve read that for every artillery shell fired by Ukrainian forces, the Russians fire 10,” he added.

Gates noted that European allies in NATO, “who we so often criticize,” have stepped up their support to Ukraine, but lack the ability to immediately send weapons. Production timelines will see NATO support reach the battlefield in 2025, he estimated.

Right now, “the only real military lifeline comes from the United States. And as we all know, that is, shall we say, on pause right now,” he said.

Gates called out Congress specifically for being too slow on approving key battlefield capabilities throughout the war, such as missile systems that have allowed strikes against Russian-occupied Crimea, which he called a “no-brainer.”

“Congress will debate for a year or more whether to send the Ukrainians tanks, and after a year, they’ll send tanks,” he said. These weapons could have arrived “a year and a half” earlier, and their delay has restrained Ukraine’s abilities, he said.

🔗 https://thehill.com/policy/defense/4481737-russia-broken-stalemate-ukraine-gates/