🇺🇸🌐🎙 NATO Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg:

We have increased our military presence in our eastern members of the alliance and further increase in our readiness and activate our defense plans. We did so to communicate very clearly to Moscow that president Putin should not consider at all to escalate this conflict beyond Ukraine and we did that and continue do that by sending a clear message that NATO is there with more troops in Romania, in the Baltic countries in Poland with higher readiness and bigger exercices and also the increased defense spending.. All of this is sending a message that we support Ukraine but also to ensure that the conflict doesn't escalate beyond Ukraine into NATO territory.

@CIG_telegram

🇺🇦💣🇷🇺 Kyiv has right to strike Russian targets ‘outside Ukraine’, says Nato chief

Ukraine has the right to strike “Russian military targets outside Ukraine” in line with international law, the Nato secretary-general has said for the first time since the start of the full-scale war nearly two years ago.

Jens Stoltenberg earlier this week acknowledged that the use of western-supplied arms to strike targets in Russia had long been a point of contention among Kyiv’s allies, due to fears of escalating the conflict.

“It’s for each and every ally to decide whether there are some caveats on what they deliver, and different allies have had a bit different policies on that,” Stoltenberg told Radio Free Europe in an interview published on Tuesday.

“But in general, we need to remember what this is. This is a war of aggression by Russia against Ukraine, in blatant violation of international law. And according to international law, Ukraine has the right to self-defence,” Stoltenberg added. “And that includes also striking legitimate military targets, Russian military targets, outside Ukraine. That is international law and, of course, Ukraine has the right to do so, to protect itself.”

The debate over using western weapons to strike Russia is likely to intensify as some Nato allies begin to ship F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine. The US-made aircraft, if armed with long-range missiles, could significantly increase the potential range of Kyiv’s strikes into Russian territory.

In recent months Kyiv has stepped up strikes on military targets inside Russia with drones and long-range missiles, including an oil depot used by the Russian army near St Petersburg.

France and the UK, which have already supplied Kyiv with long-range missiles, have been cautious about endorsing such strikes for fear of escalation with Moscow.

🗄 Archive

https://www.ft.com/content/175bd28f-1eb8-4f57-9cf4-110cca055747

🇪🇬🤝🇦🇪 Egypt announces $35bn deal with UAE to buy premium Mediterranean area

Egypt has agreed to a $35bn deal with the United Arab Emirates to develop the town of Ras el-Hekma town on its northwestern coast, Egyptian Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly announced on Friday after weeks of speculations.

Madbouly said at a news conference, which was attended by Egyptian and Emirati officials, that Egypt will receive an advance amount of $15bn in the coming week, and another $20bn within two months.

The deal is the largest foreign direct investment in an urban development project in the country's modern history, the prime minister said. It is a partnership between the Egyptian government and an Emirati consortium led by ADQ, he said.

News about the sale has triggered condemnation by critics of the government, who said the land is one of Egypt's most valuable coastal locations and that it should be developed by local investors.

But Madbouly said that the Egyptian state will have a 35 percent share of the profits from this project, although it is a private investment with the majority of shares held by the UAE consortium.

Commenting on the deal, Egyptian business tycoon Naguib Sawiris said it will contribute to resolving the current crisis by "attracting foreign currency, creating jobs and stabilising the exchange rate."

Egypt is currently in talks with the International Monetary Fund for a bailout deal that is expected to exceed $10bn. It is expected to be followed by currency devaluation to match black market rates - nearly double the official rate of 31 Egyptian pounds to the US dollar.

Madbouly on Friday said that Cairo is now "very, very few steps away" from reaching a deal with the IMF, following the Ras el-Hekma investments.

🔗 https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/egypt-announces-massive-35-billion-deal-uae-develop-ras-el-hekma-north-coast

🇮🇱❌🇵🇸 Israel plans to promote construction of 3,000 homes in the West Bank

The Israeli government has announced plans to promote the construction of over 3,300 housing units in West Bank settlements, marking the largest construction operation since the beginning of the war with Hamas on October 7th.

According to reports from public broadcaster Kan 11, the proposed construction includes approximately 2,350 housing units in Ma'ale Adumim near Jerusalem, and around 300 more in Kedar, southeast of East Jerusalem.

Additionally, around 700 housing units are expected to be approved in Efrat, targeting young couples.

This decision comes in response to a terrorist attack near Ma'ale Adumim on Thursday, which resulted in the death of an Israeli soldier and injuries to at least eight others.

As a security measure, authorities have also prohibited Palestinians from traveling on a section of the road leading to the al-Zaim checkpoint for at least two weeks.

Construction in West Bank settlements has seen significant growth in recent years, with over 700,000 Israelis now residing in these areas, including those in East Jerusalem, according to Peace Now, a left-wing Israeli organization.

🔗 https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/israel/defense/1708691950-israel-plans-to-promote-construction-of-3-000-homes-in-the-west-bank

🇮🇱❌🇵🇸 Netanyahu's post-war plan sees Israel keeping security control over Palestinian areas

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has presented his first official "day after" plan for the Gaza Strip once the war ends, saying Israel will keep security control over Palestinian areas and make reconstruction dependent on demilitarisation.

The plan, which brings together a range of well-established Israeli positions, underlines Netanyahu's resistance to the creation of a Palestinian state which he sees as a security threat, without explicitly ruling one out at some future stage.

The document, distributed to security cabinet members as a discussion paper rather than a set programme, proposes Israel would maintain security control over all land west of Jordan, including the occupied West Bank and Gaza - territories where the Palestinians hope to establish an independent state.

Hours after it was revealed, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Israel's expansion of settlements in the occupied West Bank was inconsistent with international law, signalling a return to long-standing U.S. policy on the issue, which had been reversed by the previous administration of Donald Trump.

In the long-term goals listed, Netanyahu rejects the "unilateral recognition" of a Palestinian state. He says a settlement with the Palestinians will only be achieved through direct negotiations between the two sides - without naming who the Palestinian party would be.

In Gaza, it proposes replacing Hamas administrative control with local representatives "who are not affiliated with terrorist countries or groups and are not financially supported by them", setting demilitarisation and deradicalisation as goals to be achieved in the medium term.

📝: Netanyahu is doing a poor job at hiding his desire to annex the Gaza Strip and now, the entirety of the West Bank under the guise of "security control" and "demilitarisation". Netanyahu's dreams of fully annexing the West Bank and the Gaza Strip won't be possible without Donald Trump in the White House though.

🗄 Archive

🔗 https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israels-netanyahu-presents-first-official-post-gaza-war-plan-2024-02-23/

🇺🇸 Chicago board of education unanimously votes to end CPD contract, remove SROs

The Chicago Board of Education unanimously voted on Thursday to terminate its $10.3 million school resource officer program in Chicago Public Schools and order schools to remove uniformed police officers before the 2024-25 school year starts.

At its monthly meeting, the board passed a resolution requiring the district to create a new policy that “codifies best practices for a holistic approach to school safety at every District school.” The resolution, backed by Mayor Brandon Johnson, passed following hours of public comment from students, parents, aldermen and union representatives.

School resource officers are uniformed police officers responsible for safety at nearly 40 high schools across the district. A maximum of two resource officers work at a school. The overwhelming majority of district schools, 595, have no resource officers currently.

In joining the ranks of around 70 school districts nationally that have adopted policies to remove police from schools, according to a 2023 Georgetown Law report, the board’s vote resolved a long-running debate on whether police should be allowed in Chicago schools and made good on a 2020 district commitment to phase out their use.

🔗 https://www.police1.com/school-resource-officer/chicago-board-of-education-unanimously-votes-to-end-cpd-contract-remove-sros

The End of Unemployment - what constitutes a recession in the new century?

INTRODUCTION:

Earlier this year, Blackrock appeared to have woken up to the demographic issues and their effects we described here back in May.

"The shrinking supply of workers in several major economies due to aging means a low unemployment rate is no longer a sign of the cyclical health of the economy. Broad worker shortages could create incentives for companies to hold onto workers, even if sales decline, for fear of not being able to hire them back. This poses the unusual possibility of 'full employment recessions' in the U.S. and Europe."

It may be surprising at face value that the effects of demography-induced tightness in the labor market is only now starting to be noticed by large asset management firms.

After all, demography is a slow-moving macroeconomic giant that is fairly easy to track in real time especially in jurisdictions that have the necessary robust bureaucracy to be able to accurately garner simple facts about their population.

Secular demographic decline is, on a relative basis, a completely new phenomenon to recorded history.

Previous civilizations did undergo a number of brief epochs where fertility decline, or more precisely fertility decline relative to non-natural increased mortality, damaged demographic health and in some cases outright ended the existence of the civilization that existed at the time.

However, no prior major civilization managed to conquer mortality as the post WWII epoch we live in presently.

Higher degrees of child mortality especially meant that a brief TFR (total fertility rate) decline from 6.0 children per woman to 4.0 children per woman could be fatal for a civilization.

Today, larger families that would be considered normal a few centuries ago in nearly all cultures make headlines in foreign-language papers.

Demographic decline in the manner that it manifests today in the developed (and increasingly developing) world is historically unique. With child mortality minimized, most conditions treatable, and longevity becoming an ingrained norm, the actual TFR needed to sustain a population long term is 2.1 children per woman.

Given that the pace of advances in medicine has been so rapid, technology has enabled jurisdictions around the world to see their populations continue to grow and economies run without demographic headwinds even as TFR declines well below replacement for decades.

This creates a phenomenon where the demographic momentum of previous generations' higher birth rates, coupled with an expansion in life expectancy and thus also retirement age creates a multi-decade lag effect on demographic decline (the length of which can vary depending on how low fertility goes).

Unlike the Greeks, Romans, or Maya, modernity has been able to create conditions where entire generations can essentially forgo childbearing while simultaneously exerting a period of positive pressure on the national economy, a phenomenon known as the demographic dividend.

The issue with this, as pointed out in our previous post on this topic, is that eventually the larger population cohorts have to retire and demographic momentum runs out of steam. Younger generations are unable to replace their older counterparts in number, competence, and experience. This phenomenon creates the massive secular tightening trends in the labor market that we see today.

In turn, this manifests itself in the end of unemployment, and with it, the need to re-evaluate and re-frame what this means for monetary policy in a myriad of economic conditions.

What is a recession if we have no unemployment?

How does this influence the mandate of central banking institutions?

How might it change their mandate?

Are the current metrics of checking on the health of the economy obsolete?

What does it mean for central banks when degrowth isn't the end of the world?

A new framework must be devised.

🔽 Continued

https://kanakrant.substack.com/p/the-end-of-unemployment