👀 ALTSEASON ABSENCE EXPLAINED 👀

2025 broke one of crypto’s most trusted assumptions: that after Bitcoin runs, capital naturally rotates into altcoins.

It didn’t.

Here’s why:

1️⃣ Institutional Investors Dictated Capital Flows 💰

This was the first institution-led crypto cycle. Retail investors, who typically drive altcoin hype, largely stayed sidelined, with social interest and trading volumes making lower highs compared to prior cycles.

Institutional investors prefer regulated investment products over long-tail altcoins. In effect, most capital flows this cycle were concentrated in BTC.

2️⃣ Bitcoin Dominance Never Broke 🕯

A side effect of this institutional involvement was that BTC dominance never dipped below ~55%. Without sustained BTC weakness, alts never got oxygen.

Institutions treated BTC as a macro reserve asset, not a speculative on-ramp. Overall, spot BTC ETFs pulled in $56B+ in net inflows this cycle. In previous cycles, this capital would’ve rotated from BTC → ETH → alts.

3️⃣ Quick Narrative-Driven Pumps Over Uniform Rallies 💱

Instead of one big altseason, we’re saw localised altcoin rallies driven by narrative forces at different points through the year. This segmented market showed pockets of upside; but not the blanket rally that defines altseason.

4️⃣ Macro Stayed Risk-Off 💵

The last major altseason was fueled by massive macro liquidity, huge stablecoin issuance, and concentrated narratives (DeFi + NFTs + scaling).

In contrast, 2025 wasn’t a “risk-on liquidity flood” year.

Recession signals stayed alive. Japan rate hikes unwound carry trades. U.S. tariff announcements escalated trade disputes. The U.S. private credit crisis trapped liquidity in debt refinancing.

In risk-off environments, capital hides in BTC, not alts. Bitcoin’s ‘digital gold’ and ‘store of value’ narrative dominated.

5️⃣ Token Oversupply + Narrative Fatigue 😱

Compared to 2017/2021, tens of millions of tokens now compete for liquidity

Not to mention, most retail investors continue to baghold alts from the previous cycle. Given their lacklustre performance this cycle, there is low confidence in new narratives.

———

▶️ Bottom Line: 2025 didn’t “miss” an altseason. It revealed a new market regime: Bitcoin = institutional macro asset.

Altcoins must now earn performance via fundamentals, not rotation. 2026 will likely see institutional involvement in crypto deepen.

🔥BULLISH: The Coinbase Bitcoin premium is back above zero for the first time in weeks, pointing to strengthening institutional spot buying.

📉 ETHEREUM VALIDATOR EXIT QUEUE COLLAPSES TO ZERO

ETH withdrawal wait times have fallen to just minutes as the exit queue falls to zero.

At the same time, over 1.3M ETH is waiting to be staked, the highest since mid-November.
This shows growing confidence and stronger long-term commitment from large holders.

🏆 AAVE DOMINATES DEFI LENDING

With $22.4BILLION in active loans, Aave alone holds more than all other major lending protocols combined, highlighting its overwhelming dominance within onchain credit markets.

🚀 PUMP.FUN DAILY DEX VOLUME HITS ALL-TIME HIGH

Pump.fun’s PumpSwap platform saw daily trading volume soar to an all-time high of $1.27 billion.

Is the Memecoin frenzy back?