This media is not supported in your browser
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
Complex natural systems defy standard mathematical analysis, so one ecologist is throwing out the equations.
https://www.quantamagazine.org/chaos-theory-in-ecology-predicts-future-populations-20151013
https://www.quantamagazine.org/chaos-theory-in-ecology-predicts-future-populations-20151013
🛒 Preliminary Steps Toward a Universal Economic Dynamics for Monetary and Fiscal Policy
http://necsi.edu/research/economics/econuniversal
📌 ABSTRACT
We consider the relationship between economic activity and intervention, including monetary and fiscal policy, using a universal monetary and response dynamics framework. Central bank policies are designed for economic growth without excess inflation. However, unemployment, investment, consumption, and inflation are interlinked. Understanding dynamics is crucial to assessing the effects of policy, especially in the aftermath of the recent financial crisis. Here we lay out a program of research into monetary and economic dynamics and preliminary steps toward its execution. We use general principles of response theory to derive specific implications for policy. We find that the current approach, which considers the overall supply of money to the economy, is insufficient to effectively regulate economic growth. While it can achieve some degree of control, optimizing growth also requires a fiscal policy balancing monetary injection between two dominant loop flows, the consumption and wages loop, and investment and returns loop. The balance arises from a composite of government tax, ennoscriptment, subsidy policies, corporate policies, as well as monetary policy. We further show that empirical evidence is consistent with a transition in 1980 between two regimes—from an oversupply to the consumption and wages loop, to an oversupply of the investment and returns loop. The imbalance is manifest in savings and borrowing by consumers and investors, and in inflation. The latter followed an increasing trend until 1980, and a decreasing one since then, resulting in a zero interest rate largely unrelated to the financial crisis. Three recessions and the financial crisis are part of this dynamic. Optimizing growth now requires shifting the balance. Our analysis supports advocates of greater income and / or government support for the poor who use a larger fraction of income for consumption. This promotes investment due to the growth in expenditures. Otherwise, investment has limited opportunities to gain returns above inflation so capital remains uninvested, and does not contribute to the growth of economic activity.
http://necsi.edu/research/economics/econuniversal
📌 ABSTRACT
We consider the relationship between economic activity and intervention, including monetary and fiscal policy, using a universal monetary and response dynamics framework. Central bank policies are designed for economic growth without excess inflation. However, unemployment, investment, consumption, and inflation are interlinked. Understanding dynamics is crucial to assessing the effects of policy, especially in the aftermath of the recent financial crisis. Here we lay out a program of research into monetary and economic dynamics and preliminary steps toward its execution. We use general principles of response theory to derive specific implications for policy. We find that the current approach, which considers the overall supply of money to the economy, is insufficient to effectively regulate economic growth. While it can achieve some degree of control, optimizing growth also requires a fiscal policy balancing monetary injection between two dominant loop flows, the consumption and wages loop, and investment and returns loop. The balance arises from a composite of government tax, ennoscriptment, subsidy policies, corporate policies, as well as monetary policy. We further show that empirical evidence is consistent with a transition in 1980 between two regimes—from an oversupply to the consumption and wages loop, to an oversupply of the investment and returns loop. The imbalance is manifest in savings and borrowing by consumers and investors, and in inflation. The latter followed an increasing trend until 1980, and a decreasing one since then, resulting in a zero interest rate largely unrelated to the financial crisis. Three recessions and the financial crisis are part of this dynamic. Optimizing growth now requires shifting the balance. Our analysis supports advocates of greater income and / or government support for the poor who use a larger fraction of income for consumption. This promotes investment due to the growth in expenditures. Otherwise, investment has limited opportunities to gain returns above inflation so capital remains uninvested, and does not contribute to the growth of economic activity.
💡For the first time, researchers have experimentally probed topological order and its breakdown. The work could open the way for new approaches to quantum computation.
https://insidetheperimeter.ca/experiment-sneaks-peek-quantum-world/?utm_content=61782672&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter
https://insidetheperimeter.ca/experiment-sneaks-peek-quantum-world/?utm_content=61782672&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter
Inside The Perimeter
Experiment sneaks a peek at quantum world -- Inside the Perimeter
Researchers have experimentally probed topological order and its breakdown. The work could open the way for new approaches to quantum computation.
🎯 There’s a #law_of_large numbers, a #law_of_small_numbers, and a #law_of_medium_numbers in between.
1️⃣ The law of large numbers is a mathematical theorem. It describes what happens as you average more and more random variables. (goo.gl/9BFtxV)
2️⃣ The law of small numbers is a semi-serious statement about about how people underestimate the variability of the average of a small number of random variables. ( In general, people grossly underestimate the variability in small samples. This phenomenon comes up all the time)
3️⃣ The law of medium numbers is a term coined by Gerald Weinberg in his book An Introduction to General Systems Thinking. He states the law as follows.
"For medium number systems, we can expect that large fluctuations, irregularities, and discrepancy with any theory will occur more or less regularly."
The law of medium numbers applies to systems too large to study exactly and too small to study statistically. For example, it may be easier to understand the behavior of an individual or a nation than the dynamics of a small community. Atoms are simple, and so are stars, but medium-sized things like birds are complicated. Medium-sized systems are where you see chaos.
Weinberg warns that medium-sized systems challenge science because scientific disciplines define their boundaries by the set of problems they can handle. He says, for example, that
"Mechanics, then, is the study of those systems for which the approximations of mechanics work successfully."
He warns that we should not be mislead by a discipline’s “success with systems of its own choosing.”
Weinberg’s book was written in 1975. Since that time there has been much more interest in the emergent properties of medium-sized systems that are not explained by more basic sciences. We may not understand these systems well, but we may appreciate the limits of our understanding better than we did a few decades ago.
1️⃣ The law of large numbers is a mathematical theorem. It describes what happens as you average more and more random variables. (goo.gl/9BFtxV)
2️⃣ The law of small numbers is a semi-serious statement about about how people underestimate the variability of the average of a small number of random variables. ( In general, people grossly underestimate the variability in small samples. This phenomenon comes up all the time)
3️⃣ The law of medium numbers is a term coined by Gerald Weinberg in his book An Introduction to General Systems Thinking. He states the law as follows.
"For medium number systems, we can expect that large fluctuations, irregularities, and discrepancy with any theory will occur more or less regularly."
The law of medium numbers applies to systems too large to study exactly and too small to study statistically. For example, it may be easier to understand the behavior of an individual or a nation than the dynamics of a small community. Atoms are simple, and so are stars, but medium-sized things like birds are complicated. Medium-sized systems are where you see chaos.
Weinberg warns that medium-sized systems challenge science because scientific disciplines define their boundaries by the set of problems they can handle. He says, for example, that
"Mechanics, then, is the study of those systems for which the approximations of mechanics work successfully."
He warns that we should not be mislead by a discipline’s “success with systems of its own choosing.”
Weinberg’s book was written in 1975. Since that time there has been much more interest in the emergent properties of medium-sized systems that are not explained by more basic sciences. We may not understand these systems well, but we may appreciate the limits of our understanding better than we did a few decades ago.
Wikipedia
Law of large numbers
In probability theory, the law of large numbers (LLN) is a theorem that describes the result of performing the same experiment a large number of times. According to the law, the average of the results obtained from a large number of trials should be close…
🎞 MIT #Machine_learning expert, Jonas Peters of the University of Copenhagen presents “Four Lectures on #Causality”.
1️⃣ https://www.aparat.com/v/hByIL
2️⃣ https://www.aparat.com/v/ID7n3
3️⃣ https://www.aparat.com/v/qnONX
4️⃣ https://www.aparat.com/v/BeuES
1️⃣ https://www.aparat.com/v/hByIL
2️⃣ https://www.aparat.com/v/ID7n3
3️⃣ https://www.aparat.com/v/qnONX
4️⃣ https://www.aparat.com/v/BeuES
آپارات - سرویس اشتراک ویدیو
Lectures on Causality: Jonas Peters, Part 1
May 10, 2017
MIT
Machine learning expert Jonas Peters of the University of Copenhagen presents “Four Lectures on Causality”.
Produced by the Laboratory for Information
MIT
Machine learning expert Jonas Peters of the University of Copenhagen presents “Four Lectures on Causality”.
Produced by the Laboratory for Information
🔖 Network control principles predict neuron function in the Caenorhabditis elegans connectome
🔗 http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nature24056.html
🔗 http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nature24056.html
#سمینارهای_هفتگی گروه سیستمهای پیچیده و علم شبکه دانشگاه شهید بهشتی
🔹دوشنبه، ۱ آبان ماه، ساعت ۴:۰۰ - کلاس۱ دانشکده فیزیک دانشگاه شهید بهشتی.
@carimi
🔹دوشنبه، ۱ آبان ماه، ساعت ۴:۰۰ - کلاس۱ دانشکده فیزیک دانشگاه شهید بهشتی.
@carimi
💥 In physics, the Fermi–Pasta–Ulam–Tsingou problem or formerly the Fermi–Pasta–Ulam problem was the apparent paradox in chaos theory that many complicated enough physical systems exhibited almost exactly periodic behavior – called Fermi–Pasta–Ulam–Tsingou recurrence (or Fermi–Pasta–Ulam recurrence) – instead of ergodic behavior. One of the resolutions of the paradox includes the insight that many non-linear equations are exactly integrable. Another may be that ergodic behavior may depend on the initial energy of the system.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi%E2%80%93Pasta%E2%80%93Ulam%E2%80%93Tsingou_problem
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi%E2%80%93Pasta%E2%80%93Ulam%E2%80%93Tsingou_problem