🇺🇸 U.S. congressional primaries are summed up

The change in balance is fixed. @R_Diplomat about how they were held, what is already known for today and the possible consequences.

On November 8, elections to the US Congress were held. For the past two years, the Democratic Party has had a majority in both chambers, now the Republicans are seizing leadership at least in the lower one, but by a smaller margin than expected.

According to AP, the results to date are as follows:

House of Representatives (lower):
◾️Democrats - 203 seats
◾️Republicans - 211 seats

To control the chamber, it is necessary to receive 218 seats out of 435, until 22 seats are processed.

Senate (upper):
◾️Democrats - 48 seats
◾️Republicans - 48 seats

To control the chamber, 51 seats out of 100 are needed. There remain 2 more seats. And here everything is not so clear.

At the finish line, all the votes magically go to the Democrats. However, Trump was confident of victory. Equally as in the fraud of the ruling regime. Till today, when D took a place in Senate.

The final results meanwhile will be known only in December.

What do we have for today? The “red wave” promised by many Republican candidates did not overwhelm the country, but they are likely to take the lower house. The main intrigue, however, remains the question of future advantage in the Senate.

With a rather small advantage in Congress, the Republicans will not be able to radically change either the domestic or foreign policy vector of Washington. And the US is still a presidential republic. However, Trump will be able to, who, with a high degree of probability, in the speech announced for November 15, will announce precisely his intention to run for a new term.

🇨🇳🇷🇺 What will this mean for Russia and China? In this question, there is a conditional following equation. I spoke about this during the presidential campaign and since then, of course, there have been adjustments in the position, but the fundamental principle is still the same. For Trump, there is “bad Russia and very bad China,” for Biden, “very bad Russia and bad China.”

In terms of China, what is interesting here is that Kevin McCarthy, who promised that the Republican majority will deal with coronavirus issues, supply chains and China's use of American technology. And also, probably, Biden's Chinese connections.

In addition, his intentions to visit Taiwan as the new Speaker will finally push the PRC, which is already frankly on the brink after the 20th Congress, to the Taiwan operation. In view of this, the renewed Congress initiates an increase in the military budget, primarily in terms of spending on the fleet. Let me remind you that the PRC navy is the largest in the world and consists of about 350 ships against 293 American ones.

It is also interesting that in general, for the United States, the alignment in which the ruling party is defeated in the elections is quite a common practice. However, with the beginning of the systemic domestic political crisis in the United States in 2016, the losing side now does not admit defeat, accusing the winner of fraud, falsification, and foreign interference. That is, there is a process of delegitimization of both elections and power. But Biden hastened to declare that there was no interference in the electoral process, everything was fair and according to procedure. Even ignoring the dead congressmen.

As for Russia, Trump is first and foremost a businessman. Was, is and will be. Even now he is unlikely to ruin the economy in the name of politics. Moreover, focusing on China, he will probably surrender the Ukrainian front to the eastern part of NATO, that is, Great Britain with the EU. Although the Kingdom is trying to play Cardinal Richelieu, it does not have sufficient resources, and has itself recently undergone internal political changes and discord, and the EU has no strategic interest in a long-term conflict with Russia. And the recent visit of Scholz to China should also be taken into account.