Lots of reasons to believe this was just a strong dead cat bounce, as expected since March.

We caught the move. Now, taking profits and hedging the rest seems like the best decision, in my opinion.

We still need confirmations (for $BTC it would be below $93k), but if the idea plays out, this move should be fully retraced.

Many ask what could trigger such a strong capitulation event. There are several possible scenarios, but the outcome would likely be the same.
Remember: first the chart, then the news.

I’ll share more details this week.

$SOL update

$170-200 target was reached.

Now bearish.

This really looks like a local top.

I’m already fully hedged (50% profits taken + $BTC, $ETH and $SOL shorts), but I’ll likely add more altcoin shorts if we get further bearish confirmations.
The goal is to be net short over the coming days.

Let’s see how this plays out.

$BTC new ATH doesn’t change the main plan.

This last move looks like a bull trap.

Most people are not ready for what's coming, and it shows.

No updates = no changes

Still fully hedged.

Just increased the short positions, adding a few alts. Net short now.

Lower. Much lower.

Now it’s time to rest and disconnect, while letting the market do its thing.

Wishing you all a blessed Sunday!

The market is giving enough time to close longs, take profits, or hedge.
Once volatility kicks in, there won’t be time to react.

Be ready.

We haven’t seen anything yet...

If altcoins are already down significantly from the local top while $BTC is still above $100k, imagine what happens if it drops to $93k (first support) and later to the main support at $60k–70k.

In my opinion, this is far from over.

Yesterday was just the test dump, and this looks like a dead cat bounce.

Lower.

DCB probably over. Expecting bearish continuation soon.

If it looks like a bull trap, and feels like a bull trap, then...

For those asking what to expect in the potential event of a capitulation / black swan scenario:

🔸 $BTC could drop to the main support at $60k–70k (35%–45% from the current price of $109,300)

🔸 $ETH could fall around 45%–55%, potentially reaching the $1,000–1,200 zone

🔸 Altcoins: average drop of 50%–70%

🔸 Memecoins would be hit hardest, with average drawdowns of 60%–80%

I remain net short.