Never trust a weekend bounce...

Interesting week ahead.

One of the biggest bull traps in history can only lead to one of the biggest collapses in history.

Most won’t see it until it’s too late.

New week, same playbook.

A weekend bounce to play with people's emotions, then a reversal or bearish continuation during the week.

Big ideas take time to play out.
Some people think analysis should materialize immediately, but that only happens with intraday setups on lower timeframes.
My analysis, especially, is based on the big picture, so it uses higher timeframes (unless I'm looking for quick trades or confirmations on smaller ones).
That means it must take time to unfold, and that’s a good thing.
It gives you time to prepare for what's coming, to adjust, and to perfect your plan. Then it gives you time to rest and enjoy life.

Despite my current strong bearish bias, I'm actually a very optimistic person.
That’s what helps me seek truth and face it, whatever it may be, and to look for solutions where others prefer to look away because truth can sometimes be blinding.

Not everything is good. Not everything is bad. Things simply are.
Through contrast, through duality, we learn.
That's why I don’t see negative situations as purely negative, but as opportunities to learn, adapt, and appreciate the opposite when it arrives. And it will arrive eventually.

But until then, we cannot ignore what lies ahead.
We have to face it, look it in the eye, and make the best possible decisions, always with the right attitude: with integrity, firmness, and calmness.

Whatever comes, I'm prepared for it, and my goal is to help you prepare too so we can navigate these times in the best way possible.

More and more confirmations.

Last month was Rektober. This month could well be Novembear.

$BTC - Keep it simple

Short-term bounces can happen, but the main support acts like a magnet.

If Bitcoin aggressively drops to those levels, which remains likely, expect altcoins to drop a further 60%-80%.

$SOL update

Deviation / RS confirmed.

Potential short-term bounce soon, same as for the rest of the market.

Retest the $170-200 key zone -> Then strong bearish continuation.

Short-term relief bounce is likely from here.

This was the local bottom, and it's been a good bounce so far.

I will update as soon as lower highs start forming again.

$BTC seems to be holding above $100k. Lots of liquidity at $105k–$110k.

Bounce could last a few more days before bearish continuation.

$105k-110k liquidity zone reached ✅

What to expect now?

-Lower high to be formed here.
-Some alts could outperform for a few more days.
-Bearish continuation soon.

Honestly today's move kind of looks like a bear trap. I think it bounces soon, for the final leg of the DCB.

Same as yesterday, this looks more like a bear trap than the start of the bearish continuation leading to the black swan event, which should happen over the next few weeks, but not just yet.

A reclaim of $100k would be the confirmation for another test of the liquidity at $105k-110k. It could happen over the weekend.

Plan remains the same.

First a bounce, then the strong bearish move (capitulation / black swan event)

Have a good week!

As you know, I'm overall bearish, but this current bearish wave looks overextended and there's a lot of liquidity above.

I think this is a local bottom here for a few days. Alts should bounce harder than $BTC, especially AI tokens.

Positioning remains the same as here, but I've just taken some profits from the short positions: https://news.1rj.ru/str/CryptoCapoTG/1334

$ETH

After deviating above the 2021 ATH, it has retraced almost 50%.

As I’ve been saying over the past few days, this bearish leg now looks very overextended.
Price is finding local support, and sentiment is turning extremely negative.

Crypto market looks set for a short-term recovery move (relief bounce), before the next leg down.

Novembear so far.

Interesting how when price was above $100k, the majority was calling for higher.
Now that price has almost touched $80k, more and more are calling for $60k-70k.

This is another reason why I think the market bounces first before reaching that target and even lower.