BTC

Current situation:

Deviation above the previous highs. Most people expecting $40k+. It would be perfect if that level gets front run.

The level of greed, arrogance and cockiness is reaching extreme levels. It reminds me of when price was at $45k-48k back in March-April 2022. I was calling for $21k-23k back then and  the hate level was very similar in percentage. But there's a big difference now; price is much lower and fundings are much higher (reaching ATH levels)

The market will tell if the bear market rally / manipulation thesis was right or not. In my opinion it's very clear, and if that's the case... it could be fully retraced within a few days/weeks. That's why I prefer to be stay out of the market still.

The $30k-31k level should show some support since it was the main level for a long time and there will be a "S/R flip narrative". Probably a short-term bounce from there if reached. Actually, if it breaks below $35k, it would confirm all the bearish divergences and they are strong enough to take the price below $30k eventually. Below there, the only support would be $25k but it has been tested several times and with that trend break it shouldn't hold. That would take us to the main target of $12k.

Not opening any new positions yet until more confirmations are given.

I don't rule out a last quick move up to $38,500 before the trend changes. Overall this looks like a local top formation and a break below $35k would confirm the break of the bullish trend.

Almost there.

This is still possible. ETH to 2150-2300. Then trend reversal.

$38,500 reached.

What I expect now:

-Slow bleed for BTC
-ETH going a bit higher to $2200-2300
-Some altcoins having the last pumps

Then big dump to $30k-31k with altcoins dumping about 30-40%. That would be the beginning of the capitulation event.

ETH main idea

BTC main idea

BNB main idea

The last BTC pump changes nothing. Same idea.

DXY

Still at major htf support and forming a higher low so far.

I will post some updates today.

Summary: prices going even higher than expected but everything is very overextended and the sentiment is extremely bullish. A big correction is due, maybe a blow off top.

BNB update

Not really liking the ltf PA here, so I'm taking partial profits here at $250 (75% of the short position I had from $301). Keeping the rest open by the moment.

I will fully close the position to reevaluate later if it consolidates above the red zone, and add more higher or if it gives bearish confirmations.

Expecting something like this for BTC

So the main ltf idea is:

Pump from here to form a lower high (around 43k-44k for BTC, and 2300-2400 for ETH). Some altcoins could make new highs.

Then the second wave of the bear market should begin.