Good morning.

Current plan:

-BTC dumps to 45k, altcoins dump 10-15%.

-BTC bounces from 44k-45k to form a lower high around 47k-50k. In the meantime, altcoins bounce harder and go for the last high, forming a divergence with BTC (low caps could keep giving good returns)

-The entire market reverses and dumps hard.

BNB update

$350 reached ✅

Waiting for ltf bearish signs to start building a swing short position.

The fact that the movement from the local low has had so much interaction with this Fibonacci channel, that wave C is exactly 1:1 with A, and that the movement has been primarily caused by stablecoin mints plus FOMO due to ETFs and the halving, confirms that this movement is corrective and not impulsive, and that it should be followed by a continuation of 2022. This continuation should be shorter in time, but more aggressive in terms of price/time ratio.

This is likely.

I wish you all a good weekend.

Taking profits on alts here. I'm out of all my positions for now. I will buy back lower if we get the 10-20% shakeout.

The price is starting to dump. Price down, OI up, funding up. Bearish.

This could easily reach $45k.

BTC zoomed in

ETH update

$2800-3000 reached ✅

Currently at major resistance. Expecting a strong rejection soon.

In my opinion BTC and ETH have reached a very important top here. Altcoins look very overextended now and fundings are very high.

There are high chances that we could see a 10-20% drop soon, with BTC reaching $45k.

Good morning.

Very strong selling pressure here. The market looks heavy.

Break below 50k is the bearish confirmation that would take the price to 45k. I'm totally out of the market.

After yesterday's dump, fundings didn't fully reset and now they are going up again. The bounce seems corrective. Strong supply here as well.

In my opinion yesterday's dump was the test dump.

HBAR update

Nice move so far. Now, as you know, I'm expecting the market to retrace. HBAR should test the broken highs as support. I will probably rebuy if that happens.

BTC

Perfect rounded formation/double top above 50k. Clean break below 50k and we should see a strong initial dump to 44k-45k.

UNI update

Target reached. I sold a bit early but no regrets, profit is profit.

I'm happy for those that held during the entire move, congratulations.

Now it's at the target/resistance and should reject, especially because the entire market looks weak.

After the potential 10-20% drop/shakeout we could see soon, I plan to re-enter some of the alts I posted here these last few weeks. Also, I will post some new setups.

Good morning.

There wasn't much movement over the weekend so I set alerts and focused on relaxing and disconnecting from the market.

For this week the plan is the same as the last analysis. BTC looks heavy and should dump to 44k-45k. We need a bearish confirmation below 50k, which would mean the move above was a deviation above this level to take liquidity (indicators are showing that this is likely). If that happens, altcoins would also dump around 10-20% (some could dump more). This is why I'm totally out of the market right now.


I hope you had a good weekend and I wish you all a good week.

BTC pumped against supply, with decreasing OI, increasing funding, and with no news. Altcoins didn't move at all.

The pump makes no sense other than a bull trap.

Same thing. BTC is moving up against supply (and now losing volume and forming ltf bearish divergences) but altcoins are not really moving. This means money is flowing from alts to BTC and no new money is entering the market here.

Fundings have been very positive for days and there are a lot of liquidity gaps below. Euphoria/greed levels are high. I wouldn't be surprised if the entire last move is retraced on a daily candle, as a blow-off top.

I don't feel the FOMO to enter the market. In fact I think this is probably the worst moment to be bullish. So after taking profits from altcoins a few days ago, I'm staying completely out of the market.

BTC is going higher than expected, and that's a reality. But this is not going to go "up only" forever. I prefer to wait until I see strong reasons to be exposed to the market for the long-term, and not just because the price is going up. That would be FOMO. I'm not losing any money (because I haven't shorted alts for months and never shorted BTC, despite what people say), nor am I missing out on opportunities, because there are always opportunities. I'm just being cautious, waiting. Not following the masses and trying to be rational.

After a run from 16k to 60k without any major correction which in my opinion has been caused mostly by ETF + halving FOMO and stablecoin mints and liquidity gaps formed during the bear market, everyone seems to be bullish and expecting ATH, 100k or even higher... ruling out any kind of major correction and just aiming higher and higher. That's greed and euphoria. Also it seems like everyone caught the absolute bottom and rode the trend until now. Those who really did, congratulations. But the majority just held during the entire bear market until now.

It seems I'm the last bear standing.