After yesterday's dump, fundings didn't fully reset and now they are going up again. The bounce seems corrective. Strong supply here as well.

In my opinion yesterday's dump was the test dump.

HBAR update

Nice move so far. Now, as you know, I'm expecting the market to retrace. HBAR should test the broken highs as support. I will probably rebuy if that happens.

BTC

Perfect rounded formation/double top above 50k. Clean break below 50k and we should see a strong initial dump to 44k-45k.

UNI update

Target reached. I sold a bit early but no regrets, profit is profit.

I'm happy for those that held during the entire move, congratulations.

Now it's at the target/resistance and should reject, especially because the entire market looks weak.

After the potential 10-20% drop/shakeout we could see soon, I plan to re-enter some of the alts I posted here these last few weeks. Also, I will post some new setups.

Good morning.

There wasn't much movement over the weekend so I set alerts and focused on relaxing and disconnecting from the market.

For this week the plan is the same as the last analysis. BTC looks heavy and should dump to 44k-45k. We need a bearish confirmation below 50k, which would mean the move above was a deviation above this level to take liquidity (indicators are showing that this is likely). If that happens, altcoins would also dump around 10-20% (some could dump more). This is why I'm totally out of the market right now.


I hope you had a good weekend and I wish you all a good week.

BTC pumped against supply, with decreasing OI, increasing funding, and with no news. Altcoins didn't move at all.

The pump makes no sense other than a bull trap.

Same thing. BTC is moving up against supply (and now losing volume and forming ltf bearish divergences) but altcoins are not really moving. This means money is flowing from alts to BTC and no new money is entering the market here.

Fundings have been very positive for days and there are a lot of liquidity gaps below. Euphoria/greed levels are high. I wouldn't be surprised if the entire last move is retraced on a daily candle, as a blow-off top.

I don't feel the FOMO to enter the market. In fact I think this is probably the worst moment to be bullish. So after taking profits from altcoins a few days ago, I'm staying completely out of the market.

BTC is going higher than expected, and that's a reality. But this is not going to go "up only" forever. I prefer to wait until I see strong reasons to be exposed to the market for the long-term, and not just because the price is going up. That would be FOMO. I'm not losing any money (because I haven't shorted alts for months and never shorted BTC, despite what people say), nor am I missing out on opportunities, because there are always opportunities. I'm just being cautious, waiting. Not following the masses and trying to be rational.

After a run from 16k to 60k without any major correction which in my opinion has been caused mostly by ETF + halving FOMO and stablecoin mints and liquidity gaps formed during the bear market, everyone seems to be bullish and expecting ATH, 100k or even higher... ruling out any kind of major correction and just aiming higher and higher. That's greed and euphoria. Also it seems like everyone caught the absolute bottom and rode the trend until now. Those who really did, congratulations. But the majority just held during the entire bear market until now.

It seems I'm the last bear standing.

To give you an idea of how overleveraged the market is. It's not common to see these extreme levels of greed.

We need a 20-30% shakeout to reset fundings and sentiment.

Here you see how during the move up from 25k to 40k-50k, there was some demand supporting the move. However, during the last move up from 50k to 64k, there wasn't any demand. Also big hand were filling asks (unloading supply) all the time, especially between 40k and 64k.

Now we can see massive liquidity gap all the way down to 30k levels. Many inefficiencies were also formed. The price moves looking for liquidity, no matter in which direction. Most of the liquidity is below.

Are rate cuts a bullish or rather a bearish event?


Throughout history, we have seen how when interest rates have been paused, the markets have entered a distribution phase or the final phase of the bullish rally. Once the Fed start cutting interest rates, the market often drops. But why?

High interest rates for an extended period are bad for the economy. Central banks intentionally maintain high interest rates in a phase known as QT (Quantitative Tightening), as a measure to slow down economic activity and control inflation. They achieve their goal, as inflation drops, but it has serious collateral effects, such as a possible recession. Some countries like the UK and Japan have already announced they are in recession. It's likely that other countries will also confirm this, and the markets return to their fair price.

BTC is going higher than expected, and that's a reality. But this is not going to go "up only" forever. I prefer to wait until I see strong reasons to be exposed to the market for the long-term, and not just because the price is going up. That would be FOMO. I'm not losing any money (because I haven't shorted alts for months and never shorted BTC, despite what people say), nor am I missing out on opportunities, because there are always opportunities. I'm just being cautious, waiting. Not following the masses and trying to be rational.

After a run from 16k to 60k without any major correction which in my opinion has been caused mostly by ETF + halving FOMO and stablecoin mints and liquidity gaps formed during the bear market, everyone seems to be bullish and expecting ATH, 100k or even higher... ruling out any kind of major correction and just aiming higher and higher. That's greed and euphoria. Also it seems like everyone caught the absolute bottom and rode the trend until now. Those who really did, congratulations. But the majority just held during the entire bear market until now.

It seems I'm the last bear standing.

Whether Bitcoin reaches its all-time high or not, I still think that now is probably one of the worst times to be bullish. The time to be bullish was some months ago. Now the trend is overly extended, indicators peaking, and the movement doesn't really match the global economic situation. There are many factors why I think it's a time to be cautious, and I will post them this week in a new Twitter thread.

With that said, some low caps might still have room to pump, but they are also overextended now. I will share several setups if we see a shakeout first to clear leverage from the market. This potential move would be a drop of about 25-30%, maybe a bit more depending on the liquidations that could occur.

Good night.

Good morning.

Yesterday we saw a very strong reaction from major resistance levels. BTC took the ATH, some altcoins were at important resistances (DOT, SOL...) and fundings were extremely high. However, price didn't break 60k, which is the first bearish confirmation.

Now we are seeing a strong bounce as well, but into the same resistance levels. Fundings didn't fully reset. Sentiment is back to bullish. And judging by the heatmaps and some indicators, this bounce could be a DCB.

In my opinion yesterday's dump was the test dump.