I'm not selling my positions, but hedging. Just in case.

#ALTCOINS update

The altcoins index (OTHERS) never gave the second and main bullish confirmation. Instead, it was strongly rejected from the resistance zone (dark zone), showing weakness. From here, we could see a last drop to the blue ''buy zone''.

No need to worry if this happens. In fact, it could present a great buying opportunity. We have to adapt to what the market gives us.

GM

The market bounced a bit yesterday but it's looking like a dead cat bounce (DCB) for now. Until we get clear bullish confirmations, the possibility of one last shakeout before altseason is still on the table. The plan remains the same: holding my altcoins bags but with a hedge position open, just in case.

Wishing you all a blessed weekend!

First move done.

Now we should see a local top formation around here and bearish continuation this week.

$ETH - HTF view

Ethereum has been ranging between $2,000 and $2,800 for two months. It appears to be an accumulation range. However, as mentioned in recent days, it is likely that we will see one final shakeout before an expansion, to $1,800-2,000 (the spring phase of the accumulation schematic).

If that potential shakeout occurs, altcoins should dump 20-40%. A ''capitulation candle'' similar to the Covid crash. Don't get scared if that happens. It would probably be one of the best buying opportunities in months.

GM

Expecting bearish acceleration soon.

The sooner this happens, the sooner the real altseason would begin.

GM!

Yesterday the market dumped, with BTC breaking below $60k.

Now the market is bouncing, but it is looking like a DCB again.

We should see bearish continuation soon.

Someone is dumping ETH hard right now.

It might be because they’re expecting some selling pressure from PlusToken, which holds 542k ETH ($1.3B). For more info: https://x.com/ErgoBTC/status/1844117289123410303

Also, there’s more potential supply from the U.S. Government, specifically from the Silk Road seized funds, which are 69,370 BTC ($4.37B).
Wallet: bc1qa5wkgaew2dkv56kfvj49j0av5nml45x9ek9hz6

I wouldn’t trust this bounce, tbh. Still looks like a dead cat bounce (DCB) into resistance. I'm keeping my hedge position open for now.

$BTC - HTF view

Bitcoin has been in a descending channel since March 2024, and it's currently sitting below a major resistance zone ($63k-$65k). As mentioned before, this bounce still looks like a DCB, and there's strong potential supply coming into the market soon, along with the escalating Middle East conflict.

The main support is around $48k-50k, which would match with $1.8k-2k for ETH. This could present a great buying opportunity for the entire market.

Enjoy the rest of your weekend!

No updates = no changes

I still don't trust this move up. Something feels off.

Don't FOMO here.

GM

Yesterday's PA was crazy. This is why I don't trust these kinds of pumps. They are mainly driven by perps and spoofing, with the intention of trapping people near resistance levels.

BTC has retraced most of the dump, but alts look weak after yesterday's P&D. It's a sign of preliminary supply. In my opinion, this could be the beginning of the final leg down (shakeout), with BTC potentially reaching $48k-50k and ETH $1.8k-2k. If the thesis is right, altcoins could dump between 25%-50% over the next few days, that's why I have a hedge position open.

Once again, don't panic if this happens. Just be ready for that scenario.

Not too much is changing, so I'm taking a few days off while the market decides on a clear direction. The plan remains the same.

Wishing you all a blessed Sunday.

Quick update:

As mentioned before, several factors could trigger a black swan event before the US election. This would cause a 35% avg. drop for altcoins, meaning that big caps could dump 25-35%, and low caps could dump 40-60%.

Once again, this would be a very last shakeout before a real altseason could begin. So if it happens, just be ready and don't get scared.

Stay safe.

Probabilities for this scenario have just increased.

I've sold some altcoins to reduce my exposure to the market, even if I was already covered with a hedge.

If this scenario doesn’t play out, there’s no issue in re-entering positions later. However, we can’t ignore the data—the market is showing significant weakness at this point.

This is how the altcoins market cap chart looks right now. Also:

-Elections uncertainty.

-Mt. Gox moving funds.

-Potential escalation of the Middle East conflict.

-Lots of liquidity below.

...

I'm completely out of the market. Better to be in ''wait and see'' mode for now.

GM!

Trump won the U.S. election, which I believe is positive for crypto in the mid to long term. However, I'm still being cautious before adding exposure to the market. The presidential inauguration ceremony isn't until January 20th, and there are still some risk factors in play, including potential sources of strong supply hitting the market. There's also the FOMC meeting today.

So, for now, I'm avoiding the euphoria and FOMO and just waiting.

People ask me how I can stay so calm in moments like these. The truth is, I don’t like to buy breakouts, especially when they are not planned and there's emotion involved. I prefer to buy at support levels or during retests, when the conditions are right. That's what works for me.

I know there are some people making good money these days, and I'm very happy for them. However, I prefer to be cautious still, and have little to no exposure right now.

No FOMO. Clear mind and sticking to the plan.

GM

BTC keeps showing incredible strength. Congratulations to those who are making good profits!

I'm still out of the market for a few weeks now. At this point, it doesn’t matter if it reaches $98k, $99k, or if it goes above $100k. The local top could occur at any moment, and this movement could be fully retraced. Some of the reasons why I'm still being cautious:

-Sentiment is extremely bullish here. Retail is piling in massively, aping into memecoins. The memecoin rally feels overextended, and that's unhealthy. A strong correction is overdue, and it will likely affect the entire market.

-Trump is still not in power. The Democrats are still governing the country, and despite saying the transfer of power would be ''smooth and in a peaceful way'', they are already trying to provoke a big war. In my view, this is a desperate attempt to apply the martial law or/and leave Trump in a complicated position. By allowing and helping Ukraine to send long distance missiles into Russian territory, the situation is escalating. I don't want this to happen. Most people don't want this to happen. But sadly, it's not something we can control, because there are real psychopaths in the elite circles of control. We can just pray and adapt.

-Also, the U.S. government holds 208,109 BTC (currently $20.15B). They recently got approval to sell the Silk Road Bitcoin, likely through auctions or gradual sales. Honestly, it wouldn’t be surprising if they timed it to tank BTC prices and make the next administration look bad—or just to make sure they don’t leave those BTC behind for them to use.

-The dollar has been showing strength while BTC was pumping, forming a divergence.

-Many altcoins are showing weakness and testing major levels as resistance. It's mostly a BTC and memecoins run, which is never a good sign. Not ruling out a few final altcoins pumps, but if my thesis is right, they could dump 60-80% over the next few weeks.

The analysis is much more complex than this. These are just some of the reasons why I prefer to avoid being exposed to the market right now. I don't see this as a wasted opportunity or a 'missed train'. Sometimes, it's better to let trains pass and wait for the one that will safely take you where you truly want to go.

This is just my opinion and what I'm doing. Not trying to convince anyone.

Stay safe everyone.