Be careful. Too many fake movements and false breakdowns.

📍Current BTC update:📍

✅ Bitcoin: How strong is the struggle to maintain support and resistance levels. Since the moment of a strong fall, the price has bounced enough, but not much, which is quite possible.

The movement can go up to 7 300 dollars. This is the starting point of a strong fall. It is difficult at the moment to determine the direction of movement, because as soon as the price breaks a strong level, there is a good movement, but then the price comes back.

We already wrote that we consider this growth to be a rebound before a further fall. The rebound can be strong, because yesterday they switched on an unlimited dollars printing press. The markets have been falling for the third week in a row and it is time to have already made at least one week of rebound. This should apply to bitcoin along with altcoins.

However, the rebound in the US market is in strong stocks, such as AAPL, NFLX, while weak stocks do not show strong dynamics. What does this mean for the bitcoin market? The crisis has already come. And, as we wrote, the first will be to pull money out of risky assets, which are cryptocurrencies.

Do you believe in Bull run in the cryptocurrency market and Bitcoin in particular, we do not know, but we know for sure that this is only the beginning. In more detail about the reasons for the fall of the cryptocurrency market and the outbreak of a serious crisis, we will write in a large review at the end of the week.

Our tactics. Short trade in long and long position in short.
The idea is that recovering bitcoin will be quite difficult. External money is unlikely to come, but those inside the system will work. And they are tuned to speculation. Therefore, a trip above $ 7,300 is no exception.

This is done in order to knock out short players and give other participants a long position. In our opinion, the price stuck between $ 5,800 and $ 6,800 to give long positions in the hope of market participants in the growth of cryptocurrencies. We showed a weekly chart that displays a very sad picture. Traditional markets will adjust and continue to fall, then Bitcoin with a vengeance will begin a free fall. In the meantime, trading now is only a matter of support and resistance levels.

✅ Altcoins: It's all the same as with Bitcoin, only much worse. The movements will be stronger and larger. We highly recommend not buying altcoins for long term now. Short-term trades with quick entry and exit are quite logical, but with short stops and just instant exit from positions.

Bitcoin dominance rose to 65.7%. This indicates the overflow of capital from altcoins to bitcoin. If the process accelerates, this is another signal for a further drop in the price of bitcoin. Be careful. The cryptocurrency market's growth dynamics and decline are copying global markets.

And this means that we are tied to fixed assets where a crisis is already erupting. But there are some altcoins that can be a lifeboat during a crisis. We will post about them in our VIP channel. Take care.

📍Quick update:📍

Currently, the position is being accumulated. American congresses have adopted a stimulus package for the economy. 2 trillion dollars. This is an unprecedented amount. However, this is enough for three months.

The current state of bitcoin can be described as neutral. Opening positions while it makes no sense. But since we are sitting in a long position, we have to wait. The funniest thing is still ahead

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📍World markets and economy📍

At the beginning of the month, about 100 confirmed cases of COVID-19 were reported in the US, but now there are more confirmed cases than in China and Italy, making the US the country with the largest coronavirus outbreak in the world. Attempts are also being made to rebuild the economy, and Trump will hear recommendations from the White House Task Force on Coronavirus this weekend. The plans include the classification of districts by low, medium, and high levels of "risk", though state governors will have a final decision on whether to soften orders at home and close businesses.

The Fed's balance sheet has grown by more than half a trillion dollars over the past week, roughly double the pace of its biggest weekly expansion during the global financial crisis. The central bank's total assets for the first time exceeded $ 5 trillion as it seeks to maintain a flow of liquidity to all corners of the market, including treasury bonds, commercial paper and municipal bonds.

"The virus does not respect borders," G20 leaders said after an emergency meeting on Thursday, announcing plans to invest more than 5 trillion. dollars in the global economy and do "whatever it takes" to overcome the pandemic of the coronavirus.

Today we’ll talk about indicators

Very often in public trading or analytics with traders you can notice a lot of all kinds of indicators on the chart. The most common fibonacci levels, overbought and oversold index, support and resistance levels, volume and so on. In fact, there are a huge number of indicators that are available to everyone.

Let's think now, if indicators are the key to success, then why so far no one has gotten rich using them. And why do many traders use them publicly if they could quietly earn money? The answer is obvious. 99% of indicators do not work. And that's why. The most basic reason is that the indicator is a lagging signal. It shows the entry point to the position a little later than it was necessary to open the position. Many indicators are based on what has already been done some time ago, but not what is being done at the moment. This is the main reason.

So what turns out that the indicators do not work? Not. We said that 0 99% are not working, but 1% is still useful. With our experience in trading financial markets for more than 10 years, we can highlight several effective indicators that will help make the right trading decision.

It should be understood that the indicator itself is worthless, and even if it shows a signal, then this is not just a winning trade. As a rule, indicators need to be combined with technical figures and the so-called price action.

The most working, in our opinion, are volume indicators and recently formed levels. Let us dwell on them.

The volume indicator shows the number of transactions that took place in a certain period of time. As a rule, if the volume is increased, then this indicates an increased interest of market participants. When the volume is sluggish, this indicates a weak market. In combination with this indicators, you can watch the breakdown of strong levels and candlestick analysis. It will also be useful to combine with technical analysis. For example, if a bull triangle formed and subsequently it was punched on the volume, then this usually says that the price will move on. If the breakup was on a sluggish volume, then this is most likely a false breakup and the price will return back to previous trading levels. We use the volume indicator almost always.

Here is another example of using a volume indicator. When the price is trending at a good volume, and then at some point the volume increases dramatically and a reversal pattern looms, for example a double bottom, then this is a strong buy signal. The logic is that at the moment of increased volume, the price met maximum resistance and will already move in the opposite direction.

The second indicator is recent support and resistance levels. Why do they work? The levels themselves indicate the strength of the buyer or seller. If the price cannot move further, then this indicates that someone does not want it to move. A strong level of support indicates a good buyer at these levels. Strong resistance indicates a good seller. It is important to understand that long-standing levels that formed a long time ago will not work as well as recent ones. The reason is that if someone held the price relatively recently, then there was a reason for this and he can also keep the price again. When there is a breakdown of the level, the main logic is that after the breakdown, those who bought are forced to cover the position at a loss.

This provokes a movement that we can use to our advantage. This is why bitcoin drops or rises when good levels break through. This is usually a liquidation position in the footsteps. Better yet, if it’s a margin call liquidation. This kind of movement is just a gift for traders. Where someone covers losses, you can make good money. Yes, sometimes it seems that this is a bad job, but on the other hand, the market is constantly where someone earns someone loses.

📍Current big Market update:📍

✅World markets. On Friday, global indices closed with slight losses. On Monday, news came out that the Fed would start printing unlimited amounts of money to support markets and the economy. In general, it was a growth week.

According to the news, this is the best bullish week of US indexes since the Great Depression. 20% growth per week. However, they forgot to add that before this there was the biggest drop since the Great Depression of 30% per week. Nevertheless, global markets rebounded on incentive news. Moreover, the fall was so vertical that the technical rebound suggested itself. Measures taken by developed countries so far have little help in stopping the spread of coronavirus.

Moreover, the distribution is exponential. America is already leading in the number of cases and deaths compared to the whole world combined. Even China. Although China is a very closed country and we do not believe their statistics, but US statistics there is reason to believe. Four came out important economic data for the United States.

Initial unemployment claims. Analysts, according to the most conservative estimates, expected 800 thousand, despite the fact that in normal times, this is usually 100 - 120 thousand. But the figure of 3.3 million was also voiced. In fact, a value of 3.3 million came out. They applied initial unemployment claims.

But the market reacted positively, as this data enables the US authorities to apply any fiscal measures, including direct repurchase of shares from the market. In general, this week was a good rebound, and according to our observation, only those companies grew well that, even during the period of quarantine and harsh measures to move the population, they feel good, for example, streaming companies, Netflix, or Zoom Video.

The rest of the market grew sluggishly, moreover on Friday, when the strength of the bulls dried up, the market began to fall and some weak companies fell even more. In general, everything is not so clear and this story, despite the statements of the world authorities and all the assurances about the help, may not stop the further fall of the world economy.

✅ Bitcoin: Over the week, bitcoin has grown slightly and almost dropped to previous levels. According to our estimates, the price should have bounced higher and reached the level of 7,000 - 7,300 dollars.

However, even we were surprised that despite the full correlation with world markets and the positive news about the infusion of monetary liquidity, Bitcoin was enough to grow to $ 7,000. And then for a moment. This means that with a high probability you have already played the correction and will continue to fall.

The fact that the price at the moment fell from $ 8,000 to $ 3,800 indicates the withdrawal of institutional money, and at least the lack of opportunity to return to the market until better times in the world. As you know, smart money likes to enter the markets when everything is stable and predictable. Now Bitcoin is left alone with speculative capital and miners. Also, exchanges that have their influence will try to earn on liquidations.

Our tactics. We are currently in a short position. After the formation of the double top and the lack of reaction to positive news, the price turned down, which for us is a bearish signal. The correction is over and, in our opinion, we can test the support levels of 5,000 and 4,300 dollars.

Moreover, we can even go further, but for now you should not run so far. There was a way out of a lot of money, but there was no way out of the miners, which tells us that they are well-off and ready to sit. For the long term, this is good.

We hold a short position and look forward to further action. The market can turn around at any moment, but we see no good reason for this. Do not hope for instant growth from nowhere. There must be a reason for everything.

Someone must buy in order for the price to rise and vice versa - to sell in order to fall. In this case, it is speculative money. But what can we say if, even with a fairly widespread margin trading, the price of bitcoin could not overcome the mark of $ 7,000. It only says that bitcoins are very weak and the balance of buyers and sellers can be much lower. The current growth has outlived itself and it is necessary to go out until better times. Until we see a stable, formed base for the purchase.

✅ Altcoins: The situation in the top 5 altcoins by capitalization is exactly the same as by bitcoin. Something has grown more, something less, but everything is looking down.

Bear market in action. Its main sign is sharp and fast rebounds, and then a slow drop in quotes, which we are observing now. At the moment, a position has been opened for altcoin, which rebounded the most.

However, it is worth bitcoin to break the mark of $ 5,900, you can sell all altcoins from the top 5 by capitalization. There will be strong falls. As for the other altcoins, but some are even growing under the current conditions.

✅Bitcoin dominance has changed to a very small value from the last review and at the moment 64.9%. This once again confirms our hypothesis that institutional money came out when the entire cryptocurrency market fell. And now speculative capital is trying to make money on each other.

So far, the balance between bitcoins and altcoins has not been violated. All within the current market paradigm. Most of the money is still in bitcoin.

✅ Conclusion. Last week for the global markets was quite positive and there was a good rebound. For the cryptocurrency markets, it was a weak and drift week where you could earn only on fast deals. Next week, in our opinion, will be quite interesting. Especially considering that the US coronavirus pandemic does not slow down, but rather grows exponentially.

✅Recommendations. Do not rush to buy when everything falls. If the market sluggishly reacts to good news, then it will fall sharply to bad news, so try to open only good deals and adhere strictly to iron risk and money management.

At such a time, only he will save your deposit from margin call. If you are a novice trader, then we strongly recommend not to trade with leverage on borrowed capital.
Take care!

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📍Informative article:📍

Why do we recommend using charts with a large time frame for making decisions in trading?

You can often hear from beginners, and sometimes from experienced traders, that trading on small time frames is more efficient. You can quickly earn tens of percent on charts of 5-minute timeframes. And if you use borrowed funds and leverage, then in general you can earn hundreds of percent in a very short period of time.

This is a very big mistake and do not believe those who are trying to convince you of such effectiveness. The truth is that it is equally difficult to make money on any timeframe, but there are still some nuances that are not visible to novice traders.

One of the vulnerabilities of trading on small timeframes is the ability to manipulate price. Agree that managing the price is easier when within 1 or 5 minutes you can buy or sell a very large amount. As a rule, all sharp and strong movements occur quickly. Price manipulations can only be done when no one expects this.

However, you must agree that, for example, shifting the price of bitcoin by $ 300 can be immediately and by small amount. But to move the price by $ 300 in two hours is much more difficult, since much more is needed. In this case, it is more difficult to manipulate the price.

This is why we recommend trading a minimum time frame of 1 hour. We personally use a 2-hour timeframe. This gives us the opportunity to pay more attention to the fundamental causes of price movements and less to pay attention to manipulation.

It is enough to recall the sharp rise in prices a few months ago. Then, for a fairly short period of time, the price increased by almost 3,000 dollars. This was possible due to the fact that there was little liquidity. However, gradually over the course of a month, the price returned back, which tells us about manipulation.

Remember that on small timeframes it is much easier to manipulate the price than on large ones. In addition, on small timeframes you very often have to trade against robots and all sorts of smart algorithms, which makes you vulnerable, especially if you are trading by yourself. The larger the time frame, the safer for private traders.

📍World markets and economy📍

S&P 500 -3.5%, Trump said the next two weeks will be "very painful" for Americans, as the White House predicts that a coronavirus pandemic could kill 100,000 to 240,000 lives.
The worst-case scenario of a US coronavirus pandemic was also voiced, according to which the death toll could reach 1.5-2.2 million.
An additional negative is the current situation with the spread of the coronavirus: the results of March 31 saw an increase in the rate of increase in the number of new cases, although before that there were certain signs of stabilization of the situation, which as a result were not justified.

📍Current BTC update:📍

✅ Bitcoin: For two weeks the price is in an exhausting side. It is quite difficult to trade in such periods, since the movements are often false.

On small time frames, trading turns into a game in such ranges. The only right decision is to trade from the indicated levels of resistance and support.

After a fairly strong fall, an equally strong rebound followed, but we still could not take the mark of 7,000 dollars and were stuck in the range of 5,800 - 6,400 dollars. The formation of the “Head and Shoulders” model from the top of the growth gave the first sign that the price can no longer grow further.

At the moment we are exactly in the middle. From experience we can say that, as a rule, after such falls one more, or even two, follows. They are made for those who think that they are smarter than everyone and purchased at good prices.

We already wrote that we are expecting a bottom update. Especially considering not very good news from traditional markets, and now, as we wrote, there is a complete correlation. Today, the American Index S&P 500 opened with gap down and continued to fall. Currently, the price is at the level of -4.5%.

Our tactics. We have opened short positions in three cryptocurrencies, one with leverage, as we understand that there is a high probability that prices will update the bottom. This is a chance to make good money.

At the moment, short positions bring a small profit. Usually we recommend loading the deposit at 30%, maximum 60%. This is done so that in case of force majeure not to lose a lot and there are still funds on deposit in addition. However, now we are confident that the market can go down well, so the workload is 100%.

However, there are some nuances. Usually we do not physically put stops (in our VIP group there is a denoscription of working with stops). This is done in order to rethink the situation a little if the exit zone is reached in the red, maybe you should still not cover it and add half a percent, since the market is speculative and the exchanges can be shaken out by stops.

But in this case, with a load of 100% deposit, we put physical stops on the exchange. This is done so that in the event of a sharp change in the situation, we will be knocked out, and not have to go out with our hands somewhere far away. This is part of risk management. In our VIP channel, in the next two weeks we will write training articles on working with stops and on working with risk and money management.

✅ Altcoins: Top 5 altcoins by capitalization repeat the movement of bitcoin. We have opened two short positions in the most interesting and frisky. They showed themselves to be quite volatile.

In general, in the current market, it is not recommended to buy altcoins, even if they look good. This is part of risk management. Believe us, one day it will save your deposit. While the course is down the entire market.

The dominance of bitcoin at the moment is 64.8%. Over the past few months, the balance between bitcoin and altcoins has not changed relatively.

This means that there is no flow of capital and the market is balanced. This also means that there is no influx of new money, and therefore the market does not have fuel for growth. Unless exchanges can drive prices up to margin calls and stop fees.

No wonder they introduced the margin and gave everyone calculators for calculating leverages and margin. All information about your positions they have access to, which means that if you are trading with leverage, you should be extremely accurate and quick on exits. Otherwise, you risk losing everything.

Conclusion Today, a downward movement has begun, it is possible that this is just an oscillation and we will grow again, but we see no reason for growth. Unless only to knock out short positions, but then you need to drive the price to the level of 7,800 dollars. It is expensive and nobody needs. Much more people bought, as they think at a good price. Nevertheless, be careful and comply with risk and money management. Very often this is much more important than the trading itself.

Take care.