Be greedy when others are fearful, be fearful when others are greedy!

It is November 23rd, 2018

BTC dominance is currently at 53.6% (+0.5%). The total market cap is currently at $139.4 billion (- $11.1 billion). The market volume of the last 24h was $14.4 billion (- $2.7 billion).

Fundamental analysis

China: Crypto Miners Sell off Mining Devices ‘by Kilo’ Amidst Market Decline

https://cointelegraph.com/news/china-crypto-miners-sell-off-mining-devices-by-kilo-amidst-market-decline

Main question right now is about mining and if that is profitable for miners to mine Bitcoin?

We are not going to follow the crowd and listen to the rumours but rather check real data on Blockchain and let you know the real truth about mining profitability. In the post after this market update, we will cover this topic so make sure you read that article.

While one side is turning off their machines, others are buying more and expanding their business (Bitmain).

Whole article read below after this market update.

Technical analysis

3D time frame : https://www.tradingview.com/x/NGK3l6qK/

We are looking at this time frame because daily is currenlty too small time frame for general market and weekly is a little bit too big so 3D is kinda ideal.

What we see on this time frame is that it is currently forming potential doji candle that is well known as reversal sign. This candle is closing today so in case it closes as doji, it will create potential bullish momentum and we may see some up moves.

On the other side, if price closes below 4100-4000, the bullish scenario is going to be canceled and we will get bearish mometum and trigger for 3600-3700 area.

We are currently scalping the market because it offers a lot of volatility and our main focus is on short entries. If we see bullish close on 3D, we will check 1D and H4 and look for long entries as well.

In case of bullish scenario we will get mometum to 5000-5200 area and in case bearish, we will target 3600-3700 area.

If you like our work, you can award us by inviting your friends and helping us grow our community. You can invite them through this link: https://news.1rj.ru/str/CryptoExpertSignals

To your success, CS Team!

Mining profitability

Main question, is it true that miners are turning off their machines?

According to data we have, the hash rate is dropping so it is true that some of the mining machines are being turned off!

http://prntscr.com/llv39p

As you can see, at its peak, hash rate was around 60 000 000 TH/s. At the moment it is at 40 000 000 TH/s. It means that 1/3 of the mining equipment is turned off. But, we saw these drops to 40 000 000 3 more times in period from late August 2018 to the late October 2018.

But, we are still having 4 times more hash rate than we had in December 2017 while the market is 75% down. It means that technology is way better and it grew a lot in last 12 months.

Hashrate distribution

http://prntscr.com/llv44c

We can see that BTC.COM and Antpool are growing with hashrate. If we consider that others are turning off their machines, they are at least keeping their machines on or even buying more.

BTC.COM and Antpool are under Bitmain control. Also, Bitmain is share holder of ViaBTC mining pool. Considering this, Bitmain is controlling around 45% of the mining hashrate.

Difficulty

http://prntscr.com/llv4vv

As you can see it is dropping too. What does difficulty mean?

As you may know, mining is process where miners are trying to solve mathematical problem in order to get mining reward. If the difficulty is high, it means that problem is harder to be solved and it lead us to conclusion that they are getting less mining reward.

On the other side, when it is dropping, it means that mathematical proiblem gets easier for them to solve and that they are getting more mining reward.

This means that these mining pools that are still active are going to earn more Bitcoin than they used to earn before and it means their mining will be profitable again.

This means that the price decrease is going to cause decrease in mining hashrate that is going to cause decrease in difficulty that is going to increase mining reward for the miners.

So, this seems not so bad at all, right?

What is the disadvantage of this?

As there is less mining hashrate, the only problem could be increase in transaction fees. Let's see if there is increase.

Transaction fees

http://prntscr.com/llv6k5
http://prntscr.com/llv6pi
http://prntscr.com/llv6vw

As you can see, there is slightly increase but it can't be even compared to increase in 2017. In our opinion, it doesn't matter if you pay 5 cents or 20 cents for transaction. As long as it is below $1, it is more than affordable.

So, to conclude, the drop didn't affect mining at all. The transaction fees and speed is still very good so at this price range, mining is not in danger.

At the end, for those that are curios how mining was profitable in 2017 at $1000 for example, here is quick explanation.

Simply, there were less miners. For example, in April 2017, total hash rate was 4 000 000 TH/s. It means 10 times lower than current rate. It means 10 times less miners roughly.

At the same time, difficulty was 15 times lower than current rate.

Block reward was 25 BTC instead of 12.5 BTC at the moment because halving happened in the middle of 2017. If you do not know, halving is the process that cause decrease in block reward by 2 ever 4 years. In 2021 it will be decreased from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC and so on.

If we consider all of this, we see clearly the reason why it was much more profitable.
Mining is in a bubble, further decrease my happen but considering scaling solution such as Lighting Network, we think Bitcoin is safe and that both miners and community will be satisfied.

All data that were used in this post are coming from blockchain.com

We hope you get some value this article! If you like it, you can support us by inviting your friends to join us: https://news.1rj.ru/str/CryptoExpertSignals

This is how real scalping looks like https://www.tradingview.com/x/c5o92388

We caught move of $150 today in our paid group. The trade reached its target in less than 3 hours! 💪❤️

Hello, we hope you are doing great!

Here is the Bitcoin m15 chart: https://www.tradingview.com/x/WdbzSO5S

If you are trying to scalp in this market, look for these 2 lower areas as potential long entries since H4 close was bullish and from that area you can target upper green.

If the lower two areas gets broken, we will recheck our analysis and find new areas of interest.

Good luck

It is November 24th, 2018

BTC dominance is currently at 53.8% (+ 0.2%). The total market cap is currentlyn at $141.2 billlion (+ $1.8 billion). The market volume of the last 24h was $13.9 billion (- $0.5 billion).

Fundamental analysis

Bitcoin Price Eyes Double Bottom Reversal After $4K Defense

https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-price-eyes-double-bottom-reversal-after-4k-defensebitcoin-price-eyes-recovery-after-defense-of-long-term-support

Read it carefully it show us some major price levels. Also, it gives us what should happen to confirm bullish or bearish price setup.

Technical analysis

3D time frame : https://www.tradingview.com/x/XAIXrTN0/

As we mentioned yesterday, we got close we were looking for. After this close, it has same chances for either uptrend or continuation of downtrend. In less bearish market, this would be very bullish candle close but in this market it gives us sign to look for both long and short scalp or swing entries.

Downward target is 3600-3700 area. Uptrend targets are firstly 4600-4700 and then all the way up to 5100-5200.

Weekly close that is coming plays very important role. Last 2 weekly closes triggered big selloffs of almost $1000 each so it worht keeping your eyes on weekly candle close.

If you like our work, you can award us by inviting your friends and helping us grow our community. You can invite them through this link: https://news.1rj.ru/str/CryptoExpertSignals

To your success, CS Team!

It is November 25th, 2018

BTC dominance is currently at 54.1% (+0.3%). The total market cap is currently at $120.0 billion (- $21.2 billion). The market volume of the last 24h was $15.6 billion (+ $1.7 billion).

Weekly time frame : https://www.tradingview.com/x/FprVHzYm/

Bitcoin at major weekly area of 3600.

Is this going to be broken, is this going to hold us from further decline? Hard to say. Looking at this weekly candle that is about to close today, looks like there is nothing stopping us from further decline.

It is useless to look at lower time frames since we have this weekly candle. There should happen miracle to invalidate this candle. It is hard to imagine price closing like this and not going further down next week. At lest creating shadow through these supports.

For accumulation, at 82% from its all time high is of course great but long option still doesn't look smart idea. There is not increase in short positions. It is still the same so some short squeeze is not going to happen easily.

We saw potential bullish scenario after 3D close but once flag was broken down, it was clear that bullish scenario doesn't have too much chance to happen.

Near future is still very bearish, where the price is going to stop is just a question that nobody probably knows!

But, the community dreamed about these prices. I wish I bough BTC at $3k was one of the most frequent messages I saw last year. Here you are 🍴
The meal is served! You can accumulate as much as you want but at the moment the most frequent messages are "I wish I sold at $6k"

Time flies, who knows what will be the most frequent message in 3 months from now or even 3 years?

Bitmex funding rate

What is funding rate? It is commission that traders pay or get for holding opened position ever 8 hours.

It changes time to time. If the funding rate is 0.05% it means that someone will receive and someone will pay that commission. It is not commission for exchange but commission from members to members.

Sometimes shorts pay to longs and sometimes longs pay to shorts.

This is the link where you can find that information: https://www.bitmex.com/app/contract/XBTUSD

Why is this important?

Funding is usually around 0.05% up to 0.08%. Last funding was 0.25% while the funding for next 8h is 0.16%.

Shorts pay to longs. It seems not important but it is very important.

Funding of 0.25% is huge commission for shorts because in one day you have to pay 3 times that commission and paying 0.75% is huge money. Especially because you pay from your money and if you use leverage, it is going to increase. If you use leverage 10x, you are going to pay 7.5% just funding commission.

This is just informative warning for you to take look at this because now shorts are paying huge commission just for holding position.

This is one of reasons why we focus on scalps to avoid paying huge funding and also because scalps are currently offering huge opportunity.

So, take care of the funding rate. We do not say to avoid shorting because of this but just keep that fee in mind. Maybe you can wait for entry after funding to avoid paying that fee.

Pay attention also because it’s changing and sometimes longs pay finding fee.

This is mentioned because there is a lot of questions about maker ad taker fees and most of people igore fudig rate. Market fee is 0.075% and you pay it once. Fudig rate is every 8 hours ad it goes all the way up to 0.25% so if you care about maker and taker fees, funding rate is even more important for you to pay attention to.

To your success, CS Team!

It is November 26th, 2018

BTC dominance is currently at 53.9% (-0.2%). The total market cap is currently at $129,2 billion (+ $9.2 billion). The market volume of the last 24h was $19.6 billion (+ $4.0 billion).

Fundamental analysis

Weekly time frame : https://www.tradingview.com/x/LXFLTwPp/

Daily time frame : https://www.tradingview.com/x/z3lyuweZ/

We saw very good bounce off yesterday but it didn't help so much weekly candle that is still too bearish. This weekly close tells us that price could go at least one more time to test 3600 support and even 3000 support.

But the bounce off was important because it showed that there are interest in the buying.

We are currently doing long and hosrt scalps according to trade setups.

The current sentiment is positive because of yesterdays up move but if we don't break above 4200 area and close, most likely we are going down slowly but steady.

So, the trend is still bearish but at least we saw that there is interest at support area of 3600. To confirm that interest we need to see further move above 4100-4200 otherwise we are going down again!

It is November 27th, 2018

BTC dominance is currently at 53.1% (-0.8%). The total market cap is currently at $121.3 billion (- $7.9 billion). The market volume of the last 24h was $18.4 billion (- $1.2 billion).

Technical analysis

Weekly time frame : https://www.tradingview.com/x/GHyP7tMY/

Bitcoin is still showing downward momentum to 3k support.

There is a lot of action around 3.6k support and it is good sign but we think that 3k will be targeted and probably the final target of this sell off. Then, once that price is reached, if 3k holds out, we may enter consolidation phase around 3.5-4.5k for some time.

All in all, the market is still very bearish.

H4 time frame : https://www.tradingview.com/x/awvMXGCU/

This time frame shows very good the battle around 3.6k support. For not it is holding and if it wants to hold, we need price above 4.0k because everything else we will extra bearish.

To your success, CS Team!

Are Institutional Investors Accumulating Bitcoin

There are popular tweets, such as:

Retail: ‘should I sell and buy back lower? should I open a short? should I just give up? is it going to zero? was this whole crypto thing a scam after all?’

Institutions: ‘please keep selling us cheap bitcoin. thank you.’”

But the question is, are they really accumulating Bitcoin?

Rrofessional traders and institutional investors are highly cautious in accumulating new assets and often invest in a way that it has minimal impact on the short-term price trend of the asset or the currency.

They are never going to put huge sell or buy wall. They are never going to execute trade all at once. They are buying step by step by using bots that are executing trades of $10 each. If we spot them accumulating, then we will start doing it too and that's what they avoid.

The problem, however, is concluding that ‘because institutional investors are buying, price will immediately go up.

If they are accumulating, it means they are keeping price low to accumulate as much as they want.

Institutional investors tend to invest in speculative assets through the over-the-counter (OTC) market. In the case of Bitcoin, due to its lack of liquidity, institutional investors have to rely on trusted custodians like Coinbase Custody and Fidelity Digital Assets to purchase or sell large sums of BTC.

OTC market operators and custodial solution providers are not obliged to share their trading volumes **and as a result, data held by OTC exchanges is rarely released to the public. Because of the lack of information offered by OTC exchanges, **it is difficult to back up claims that institutions are accumulating BTC to a large extent.

It remains unclear whether institutions are merely interested in cryptocurrencies or are actively accumulating Bitcoin as a long-term investment.

Currently, the demand for Coinbase Custody, Bakkt, and Fidelity DIgital Assets is one of the limited ways to justify institutional demand for crypto and recently, Bakkt confirmed that the demand is growing rapidly.

Apart from Instituons, what about whales? Are they selling, buying more of just holding?

If we take look at top100 richest Bitcoin addresses (https://bitinfocharts.com/top-100-richest-bitcoin-addresses.html), we do not see too much action. Some of them are buying, some of them are selling but apart from that, the majority is holding.

What is clear that weak hands are going to leave crypto world. In our opinion it is too important for the future of the world so we do not expect to see the end of crypto world. We do not know if Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple and others are going to make it, but crypto in general is going to survive and keep fighting for decentralised world.

To your success, CS Team!

It is November 28th, 2018

BTC dominance is currently at 53.4 % (+0.3%). The total market cap is currently at $131.6 billion (+ $10.3 billion). The market volume of the last 24h was $17.5 billion (- $0.9 billion).

Fundamental analysis

Bitcoin ETFs Roadblocked by Lack of Safeguards, SEC's Chief Says

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2018-11-27/bitcoin-etfs-roadblocked-by-lack-of-safeguards-sec-s-chief-says

The head of the Securities and Exchange Commission said Tuesday that concern over a lack of investor protections makes it unlikely that his agency will approve a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund anytime soon.

ICOs Sold More Than 100,000 ETH in the Past Seven Days

https://www.trustnodes.com/2018/11/26/icos-sold-more-than-100000-eth-in-the-past-seven-days

Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs) have sold more than 202,000 eth in the past 30 days, with more than half of it, ◊119,000, sold in the past seven days.

Technical analysis

Weekly chart : https://www.tradingview.com/x/8c9KdffD/

H4 time frame : https://www.tradingview.com/x/VVe5iGty/

Weekly support at 3600 is holding very good so far. On H4 you can see clearly double bottom formed. We are not saying that the end of the bottom is reached but at least short term trend can be bullish.

Next resistance on daily time frame is at $4250.

To your success, CS Team!

Almost year ago, the day before the beginning of the bloodbath. One year later, after breaking frist support of 5500, we are testing second support at 3600.

While others are sharing their successful predictions of predicting drop from 6000 to 3600, we can say that we shared bearish prediction just $50 below the all time high, at the highest point of bullish sentiment and market euphoria. 😉

What will happen if BTC to test support again. I will just say that first potential support is at $5500, 2nd is at $3600 and 3rd one is at $1800. Isn't this scary?

It is November 29th, 2018

BTC dominance is currently at 53.6% (+0.2%). The total market cap is currently at $135.5 billion (+ $3.9 billion). The market volume of the last 24h was $20.3 billion (+ $2.8 billion).

Fundamental analysis :

Despite cryptocurrency crash, Amazon sees opportunity to embrace blockchain

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/28/aws-announces-new-blockchain-services-at-reinvent.html?__source=facebook%7Ccrypto+

Amazon has launched Amazon Managed Blockchain platform which supports Ethereum and Hyperledger Fabric.

Major US Crypto Exchange Coinbase Launches OTC Crypto Trading for Institutional Investors

https://cointelegraph.com/news/major-us-crypto-exchange-coinbase-launches-otc-crypto-trading-for-institutional-investors

Opening OTC is the beginning of huge accumulation.

By the way, what is OTC market?

What is an 'Over-The-Counter Market'
A decentralized market, without a central physical location, where market participants trade with one another through various communication modes such as the telephone, email, and proprietary electronic trading systems. An over-the-counter (OTC) market and an exchange market are the two basic ways of organizing financial markets. In an OTC market, dealers act as market-makers by quoting prices at which they will buy and sell a security, currency, or other financial products. A trade can be executed between two participants in an OTC market without others being aware of the price at which the transaction was completed. In general, OTC markets are typically less transparent than exchanges and are also subject to fewer regulations.

In short, they can buy or sell as much as they want without revealing it to the public. This is the favourite way of accumulating for Instituations because they can buy as much as they want without affecting prices.

The price could be affected in case of some smart AI finds big transactions but you never know the nature of random transactions.

After this event, it could be clear that Institutions are coming, if they are not already here!

Technical analysis

Bullish scenario : https://www.tradingview.com/x/IJZfXW7K/

Bearish Scenario : https://www.tradingview.com/x/Wc0Xs5Dg/

Market is finally looking good after 2 weeks of huge selloff. I am not saying again the bottom is reached for that we need confirmation on weekly time frame and we are still too far from that but this bullish action could lead us towards 4500 at least.

Currently, daily candle found resistance around 4250 as we said yesterday so it is important area and very strong resistance.
If that resistance gets broken, next one is at 4500 and after that one, we do not have any major resistance all the way up until 5500.

To your success, CS Team!

BTC daily:

Yesterday candle showing power, until now we see nothing
more than a bearish retest of previous consolidation. To truly
turn bullish we want to see 4450+.
Two day to go to turn monthly good (4723)

Can the bulls preform a miracle?

https://www.tradingview.com/x/eJu84szJ/

Bullish scenario: https://www.tradingview.com/x/IJZfXW7K/

Bullish scenario update: https://www.tradingview.com/x/BzMtaXQt/

This is how perfect setup works 😎

Using coinmarketcap.com is good idea totrack market situation?

This is going to be education post about best source to track data about cryptocurrencies.

Firstly, the best solution is to use at least 2 sources of information because to rely just on one source could be risky.

Coinmarketcap.com is the largest website in the category of cryptocurrency and 5th largest website in the category finance with average monthly views around 80 million.

Considering that, it is very popular in crypto community. We saw a lot of rumours about fake data on coinmarket cap.

To start with, for these that do not know, it is not showing data from all exchanges. It is also not showing data from few countries. For example, it excludes Korean exchanges.

That's why the trading volume is different because it exludes some of exchanges. But market cap is still the same because it depends on circulating supply and current average price on all exchanges. So, the market cap is valid but trading volume isn't because it doesn't include all exchanges.

There is a little bit more info that vary but using coinmarketcap.com and combining with one more is more than enough.

The reason for this post was rumours of fake market cap showed on coinmarketcap.com and comparing it with the market cap showed on https://finance.yahoo.com/cryptocurrencies/ for example.

This is very good source of info too but there is huge mistake. Check market cap for ripple. It shows $40 billion while coinmarketcap.com is showing $15 billion.

Because of that, a lot of ripple hypers started to call coinmarketcap.com fake but the truth is that yahoo finance used total supply as circulating supply and because of that mistake, it shows more than 2.5 times bigger market cap for ripple.

So, to conclude, coinmarketcap.com is good source of info but please consider using at least one more in order to confirm information.

To your success, CS Team!

It is November 30th, 2018

BTC dominance is currently at 53.9% (+0.3%). The total market cap is currently at $139.1 billion (+ $3.6 billion). The market volume of the last 24h was $17.3 billion (+ $3.0 billion).

Fundamental analysis

The market is gaining strength but still struggling to close above major resistance levels on higher time frames.

Two days ago we saw the biggest one day growth in Bitcoin price since April 2018. Also, we are getting a lot of positive news new trading desks being opened that will alows more and more people to invest their money. Check out the links below to find out more about the current market fundamentals.

Fidelity Looking to Expand Digital Asset Trading Beyond Bitcoin and Ether

https://www.coindesk.com/fidelity-looking-to-expand-digital-asset-trading-beyond-bitcoin-and-ether

Bitcoin Sees Biggest Single-Day Price Gain Since April

https://www.coindesk.com/bull-reversal-bitcoin-sees-biggest-single-day-price-gain-since-april

Technical analysis

Daily time frame : https://www.tradingview.com/x/En4aPpUi/

It doesn't make sense to use higher time frames for trading because they were too far from resistance and using only lower time frames was more than enough.

Since we are now testing resistance area on higher time frames, we should skip from lower to higher time frames and wait for confirmation.

As long as we are below this resistance, the market is still quite bearish in general. If we see breaking these levels and close above, we can think of continuation of this short uptrend, otherwise we are going to start descending again.

To you success, CS Team!