By the way, the more they are talking about sell the news on the ETF, the less I think it is going to be a sellthe news event.

Closed it as there isn‘t enough follow-up strength. Feels like we might dip another round. Volume is also way too low to further trade it (altough we are sitting at daily low right now).

A roundup on this trade yesterday:
As I wrote I am unsure on the 5 waves - the count was obviously wrong. We did not have the downtrend completed. It looks like we might have now.

Either way, YGG is not interesting for me anymore on this for two reasons:

We had the blow off top, and already retraced 30% from the top. This is not something I can short anymore.

The concept would be still to long if you wanted to trade it. However, we lost the important support at 0.47-0.48. This means, we will face heavy resistance when we want to push upwards. On top of that, the volume is low and I do not expect extreme volatility in a short amount of time.

Hence, I expect more of an accumulation phase which makes it more like gambling than real trading if you ask me. Especially, you would have expect longer trades which I do not want on leverage. Longer trades are spot buys for me for long-term bags, which YGG isn't for me.

Why did I exit this long?:
You can see that there are 2 important spots. The top arrow points towards the region where YGG should have formed a higher low. You would expect at this retesting area after a breakout a huge volume and buying pressure. There simply wasn't that real spike and in contrast, we traded somewhat sideways and starting falling off a cliff. This is the point where I exited again.

The next arrow would have been important as well. In fact, the volume spiked a little more but the same thing: simply noone really wanted to buy. This showed me that we have not reached the bottom yet and I stopped looking at it. As said, a short would have been interesting but considering being already 25% down in a few hours, the trade is too risky to take for me.

I might do another series like this if you guys want and if I see an interesting trade coming up soon.

Sui has been playing out great so far. I would expect we take one or two more dips until we will break the top.

4th or 5th attempt usualy breaks a resistance like this in an ascending/decending triangle

BTC LTF for next hours

BTC plan for the next few days

12k off the lines now? :D

30k is the worse case scenario that can happen (maybe a wick below). We wil only break it if we get a rejection of the ETFs. Don't let some attention seekers get you out of your bags. Be carefeul who you let influence you :D

Trying to break out

Oh and I personally think the two circles are the worse cases on a a sell the news dip. Wicks below can always happen when we get high liquidations. I think the upper circle is possible, if at all…

Altough everyone is bearish right now (at least the big red numbers across the board indicate it and the first people I know and trust are selling their bags), I do see 4 completed waves up on the major coins like Avax, SOL and others that have driven the recent uptrends.

If you ask me, just from a TA perspective, there is one last bigger wave up. It can be truncated, but this would at least mean one last attempt to break the highs.

It feels like we are overbought and it felt to good to be true lately. It is always good to take profits and not be overinvested. I wouldn‘t be too bearish too quick.

Especially, because everyone, their mother, sister, uncle, dad, stepdad and teacher is talking about nothing but a sell the news. Maybe we are pricing in the sell the news already as we get super bullish news left and right, indicating that the ETf decisions are pretty much done.

I am not telling you to buy, hold, sell or whatever. Everything in here is no financial advice anyways. Just don‘t let your emotions drive your decisions (fomo goes is both directions)
I‘ll back my assumption up with a few charts:

$AVAX truncated finish and extended finish of the uptrend. 5th wave can be underwhelming and go crazy. Both is somewhat normal for it. Remember, we still down 76% from ATH (without including the inflation in the meantime)

$SOL 64% down from ATH (also excluding inflation)

Also, we haven‘t left the uptrend channel, yet.

There are other examples like $UNI as well with clear 5 waves completed. UNI has already retraced 50% from the local top. My entry would be $5.33 if it would retrace a little more. (Not buying more uni anways, though)

$DOT has completed 5 waves but also already close to finishing its ABC correction. (87% down from ATH but has insane inflation, care)

The only issue remains that BTC has not properly corrected yet and has not seen it‘s 4th correction wave. The small shakeout we had this week does not seem to be enough and a proper retest of the upper rising wedge would be great. This is also my main bear target.

The question remains how much alts would suffer if we correct there. Given that most blue chips, aside from Avax, Sol and a few others just barely did a 2x, yet - I am not too concerned on the longer time frame considering their downside.