Some good news: SPX Weekly closing pretty darn good into the weekend. Couldn't wished for more.

So this was it on ETH (likely)

I made a learning cause this trade was costly: Gotta make sure to check ETH/BTC. I had ETH and BTC open simultaneously. Looked phishy when BTC pumped and found its LTF bottom but ETH started to sell off. I had a disbelief.

Well, I was feeling a 5th wave down was left and I should have listned to that and not blindly trust BTC PA for ETH. Especially in times when ETH/BTC is so volatile.

Market is getting rekt rn. I will just not touch anything for now.

Ok guys. This is a little more than just a sell the news.

It seems like there is an issue with GBTC's holding fee of 2%/year. All the other ETFs have significantly lower fees. So what is happening, people that have held GBTC previously (this was traded before), are now dumping their GBTC stocks to cheaper ones like the one of Black Rock and others, that only have 0.25% of fee.

This forces GBTC to sell their BTC on the market.

BlackRock and others easily buy them back a little bit later for cheaper.

As an ETF trade usually isn't settled (BTC bought or sold on the spot market) the second someone buys a share, all of those volumes are delayed.

GBTC holds $35 billion in BTC (35.000.000.000). In comparison, other ETFs only bough roughly 200 million (200.000.000) in advance to the ETFs.

This is causing unnatual selling pressure on the market on top of selling the news.

https://twitter.com/0xfoobar/status/1745848432084857070

Also you may want to read this. This explains pretty nicely how it works in the background when people buy or sell in ETF shares.

We basically broke/pierced every major lower time-frame support today. Next and last big support is $40.500. This has to hold, if it doesn't we go to $37.000~. This would be a retest of the current uptrend. If we hit this and hold, this is actually insanely bullish. But let's see if we can keep at the current levels/40k first.

$Osmosis 1st target hit

Update:

Update. Shoutout @eiknirb ✌️🔥

Last target hit on SUI ✅
If we break this - price discovery 🔥

On the LTF (Lower Time Frame) I expext to hit 43.5k if we break this trendline next. Hard to tell what is happening after that. If BlackRock really buys the GBTC back early next week (as per the thesis pasted here yesterday), we should see some retest of the 45-46k range.

Yes sir, absolutely. If we break this level, we Gucci.

Honestly, I do not see it break this weekend. PA doesn‘t indicate a lot of action rn. We should get a few rejections at that level.

You will want to see another ascending triangle hitting on that level from below to weaken it. I wouldn‘t get too bullish/excited (short-term) as long as we are below it.

A little cool off on volatility after this wild week is good and bullish long-term.

$7.7b volume and about $1.5b inflows. Considering that GBTC has >90% outflows, it might mean that all BTC have been purchase already. Maybe we got a few million buys left for Monday though that have not been settled completely, yet. We will see

More detailed here. I still can‘t find a general consensus on how settlement is done and if all of those have been settled or have not been. Hearing both statements

As an example. Everyone is asking themselves the same question but noone really can answer it.

One last thing: excluding GBTCs outflow per this table, this would be a buying pressure of around 17,000 Bitcoins.

When you look at Crypto Quant inflows: https://news.1rj.ru/str/cryptoquant_alert
You see over 20,000 BTC inflows. Maybe people have really been unloading like crazy. There must have been buying aside from the ETFs as well which isn‘t shown here, yet. Sometimes they post an aggregated outflow after a while which can go over 10k BTC.

It stays interesting and I think Monday or Tuesday the latest, we will see if the ETfs need more BTC or not. If we do not get buying pressure, they are covered which is of course bearish/neutral.

$SOL is forming a triangle. Usually, triangles mean a trend continuation. So a breakout to the top is more likely. However, it can also be a reversal pattern. So gotta be vigilant on the breakout.
Next leg up should be the last one of this major upmove. A bigger correction is to be expected then.
The 5th wave can extend by a lot and underperform by a lot as well. Catching that pico top will be the hardest.