I am very cautious to call any bottoms. But I would be hella surprised if alts go much lower. Yet, we can still do much more down. I guess stock market will decide.

Oh and yes: stock market decided. Also it will decide when the party is over.

69k is the level to watch. If we break it, we should be good

Btc struggling with 67k. Maybe we see another retracement before further up.
Daily close will be important with the price action right after it

Altough this is a bullish pattern it looks like BTC is losing strength.
It can go either way. Look for the breakout

(If we take another dip I still think we have bottomed. Only SPX can turn this around again imo)

$WIF on the edge

This was my gut feeling. BTC didn’t look super strong:
Fakeout into breakdown into (bearish) retest here.

To (short-term) regain the uptrend we need to break back into this green triangle here. If we fail, 65.5-66.5k range is next to retest.

As expected we bounced in the middle of my range, not making new lows.
I expect another smaller rejection and then we can go for 69k :)

Some higher time frame perspective for you guys. Here it gets clear why we are struggling a bit on 67k.
Main support is 64.8k still (2022ATH)

Super high time frame the next major support will be this higher line of the rising wedge that we broke out of. This is currently sitting at 48-50k.
The scenario how this would be possible is if SPX starts to nuke/ major ETF holders (banks etc.) start to sell their positions.

First is more likely that then 2cnd. Market is somewhat overbought on major stocks (nvidia, apple, meta) but small stocks are still very undervalued and rock bottom. It pretty much is the same state as the crypto market with BTC and alts.

(Not what I am expecting for now, but a very possible scenario to keep in mind)

Nvidia earnings this Wednesday. Last quarter they were the reason for more weeks of bullish continuation. I don‘t believe they can keep their growth rate, hence I expect this to be slightly bearish. AI is big but it certainly has a lot of hype. Once this hype settles, I expect a correction.

Bullish

JUST IN: Crypto asset manager Grayscale CEO Michael Sonnenshein resigns.

@WatcherGuru

(1/2)I thought about resistance levels today and another way to make it tangible. I came up with a dog kennel theory:

Think of it as if you were a dog, caged in a kennel and you want to break out.

You literally chew on the bars of the cage to break out of it (BTC breaking out of this red $67.400 level)

Of course, it hurts as shit (I mean chewing on metal is not very pleasant)
So you chew a day and at some point your whole mouth hurts, maybe even a teeth or two fall out.

At this point you hit $67.400 but you need to stop. You literally are exhausted from the pain.

So you take a break to heal up (price dips).

Now you still have the cage around you and how dedicated are you to keep trying?

Turns our you are and after some rest you go at it again and chew as hard as you can. You make some progress but you gotta take a break again: some more teeth break or fall out.

You see that you make progress so you are very motivated (dip is lower than previously)

(2/2)
Now you get excited and repeat the process over and over again. Progress keeps you motivated and eventually you break the bars, one after another.

Now we have 3 options:

1 (green): you chew through the bars and eventually escape (break the $67.400 level. (Ascending triangle, bullish breakout)

2. (blue):you chew through the bars but you lose so many teeth in the process that you literally have to give up before you make it (break down of the ascending triangle)

3. (red) you chew through the bars and right when you finally make it and want to escape, your owner notices you and beats the shit out of you and puts you into a new cage. You need a long time to recover (bull trap fakeout)


This might sound pretty stupid but TA is more than just drawing lines. You draw lines and interpret them and this helps you a lot to understand the price action and draw conclusions on the upcoming trend.

I hope this degenerate explanation helps. Understand the charts, where are you and what trend follows from that.