Looking at Macro: it looks bad and as I have been saying like months ago, the globaly economy is due to a reset -> big recession 2008 like.

However, this would have happened in 2020 if we didn‘t start printing.

The central banks literally have 1 way to control the monetary system: printer on/ printer off.

If unemployment is too high, they are forced to turn the printer on.
If they print, they risk killing currencies and country stability.

Usually, printer on = lower treasury bonds, as stocks outperform.
Printer off = higher treasury bonds as people seek safe places for their money.

Last months, stocks and bonds have been pumping which is unusual.
Money has flown in both, „safe“ and „unsafe“ assets.



Looking at unemployment rising -> usually it leads to printing -> moon. (2020-2021 like to counter covid effects)

But currently: stocks high, unemployment high, inflation high.

This brings the central banks in a tough spot: print more, save the economy and employment but risk the monetary stability or print less, risk high inflation which also eventually leads to instability.


When we are in tough spots, a big recession/ reset is an outcome (like 2008) as printing/ not printing is basically killing the economy (short term).

If we make it without a recession (what economists call a soft landing) we should go up more without big downward move. But I feel like the odds are lowering.

!!BUT!! Even with an upcoming recession/ financial crisis, we still can go up for another year. We can still see crazy gains. Meaning, even if one can explain the market correctly, timing the market is very difficult.

And usually: time in the market > timing the market.

I‘ll keep you updated but this is the reason why I am concerned. I hope for a blow off top with a good chance of getting out proper returns and this is why I hold for now. Risk is very high though. Plan with every outcome.

FTX will start paying $16 billion in claims from January 3

Alts on supports

MiCA announcments will move markets soon. Coming today

We could bottom here. Stuff is starting to bounce already.
The very small volume makes me sceptical

Pretty solid odds the weekly close today will be scammy cuz it's right before yearly open

No report yet as you still cannot draw anything from this low liquidity condition close

I like

Charts like $LTO are looking good. Nice shakout while we formed higher lows across most of alts. 3 weeks alt season now until election day sell the news? Yes please

no volume - no follow up. Be careful.

Last line

I correct, this is the last line. Major support hit here

Nice bounce, volume not convincing but a good start

I will be very honest, this is not looking great. TA wise, this is the last line that keeps us bullish. If we break below, we are not in a bullish structure anymore.
This intraday rejection is brutal and shows there is noone really left buying.
As long as we are above, there is hope left. As soon as we lose, bulls (including me) better start praying.

SPX only stayed above 6k but brutally got rekt afterwards. This is a bad H&S pattern and confirmed lower high.

Let‘s hope for a consolidiation.
TA wise, it clearly points -> down

This might be the reason btw.

I personally don‘t think anyone wants a recession and financial system crash. More people are invested than ever before.

Yet, I clearly pointed out the situation for over half a year now.

Do with this information what you want. I am repeating myself here but honestly I personally don‘t know what to do right now.

Would appreciate your thoughts