Think in probabilities

Bayes’ theorem is probably the single most important thing any rational person can learn.

So many of our debates and disagreements that we shout about are because we don’t understand Bayes’ theorem or how human rationality often works.

Bayes’ theorem is named after the 18th-century Thomas Bayes, and essentially it’s a formula that asks: when you are presented with all of the evidence for something, how much should you believe it?

Bayes’ theorem teaches us that our beliefs are not fixed; they are probabilities. Our beliefs change as we weigh new evidence against our assumptions, or our priors. In other words, we all carry certain ideas about how the world works, and new evidence can challenge them.

For example, somebody might believe that smoking is safe, that stress causes mouth ulcers, or that human activity is unrelated to climate change. These are their priors, their starting points. They can be formed by our culture, our biases, or even incomplete information.

Now imagine a new study comes along that challenges one of your priors. A single study might not carry enough weight to overturn your existing beliefs. But as studies accumulate, eventually the scales may tip. At some point, your prior will become less and less plausible.

Bayes’ theorem argues that being rational is not about black and white. It’s not even about true or false. It’s about what is most reasonable based on the best available evidence. But for this to work, we need to be presented with as much high-quality data as possible. Without evidence—without belief-forming data—we are left only with our priors and biases. And those aren’t all that rational. - Math Files

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Join Rupert Lowe in Restore Britain, because he is the only one who will actually do it!

I am today launching Restore Britain as a national political party.

Join us.

restorebritain.org.uk/join_u… - Rupert Lowe MP

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RT @r0ck3t23: Katherine Boyle just identified Elon Musk’s most important contribution to America, and it has nothing to do with the products he shipped.

Boyle, General Partner at a16z: “I think Elon’s most important contribution to this country is training two generations of engineers to work with their hands again.”

For ten years, America’s sharpest technical minds optimized ad clicks and built messaging apps. Software consumed ambition. The physical world became something you abstracted into APIs, not something you touched or understood.

Elon didn’t reverse that through inspiration. He reversed it by building companies that required understanding manufacturing or failing completely.

SpaceX and Tesla forced engineers to learn how metal fractures, how tolerances cascade through systems, how physical iteration costs months and millions per failure. No debugging. No patches. Just physics that doesn’t negotiate.

Boyle: “Training two generations of engineers.”

The product isn’t the cars. It’s the people. Look at who’s founding America’s critical hard-tech companies now. The common thread isn’t Stanford or MIT. It’s time on factory floors at SpaceX or Tesla.

They learned welding. They learned that “impossible” just means unsolved engineering, not violated physics. They learned failure in the physical domain where mistakes compound instead of reverting.

Elon didn’t build companies. He accidentally rebuilt industrial knowledge that had been decaying for thirty years while America’s best minds chased digital scale.

Boyle: “Work with their hands again.”

Three words that sound quaint but describe a civilizational inflection point.

Software dominated because it scaled infinitely at zero marginal cost. Physical manufacturing was slow, expensive, unfashionable. Building real things became what you did if you couldn’t code.

Elon made atoms matter again. Made manufacturing the hardest problem worth solving. Made physical engineering prestigious in ways it hadn’t been since humans walked on the moon.

The evidence is everywhere now. Technical talent that doesn’t default to “which app” but asks “which physical thing should exist that currently doesn’t.”

Ambition redirected from optimizing engagement metrics to building rockets. From scaling users to scaling factories. From virtual products to physical infrastructure.

That shift matters more than any vehicle or spacecraft Musk delivered. Products obsolesce. Redirecting an entire generation’s engineering ambition from digital to physical compounds across decades and rebuilds industrial capability at civilizational scale.

We stopped just coding the future. We started machining it, welding it, breaking it in reality until physics confirms it works. That transformation from virtual to tangible ambition is reconstructing American manufacturing one engineer at a time.

And those engineers are now training the next wave. The compounding has started. The School of Elon doesn’t need Elon anymore. It’s self-sustaining, spreading through an entire generation that learned building real things matters more than building virtual ones.

That’s not just a business achievement. That’s a civilization remembering how to make things that matter in the physical world again. And it might be the only thing that saves American technological leadership when the competition is just building faster because they never forgot.

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RT @cb_doge: Reid Hoffman is lying. He has not been cleared by the FBI and should be investigated.

- 1737 emails
- Confirmed visits to the Epstein Island
- Sent gifts to the island and “for the girls”
- Stayed at Epstein’s island, Epstein’s ranch in New Mexico and Epstein’s house in New York.
- Offered to help him with PR.
- Lying about his relationship with Epstein
- Maintained very close relationship with Epstein right up to the end.

• July 2015: Epstein texts Hoffman praising his diet progress. Hoffman replies he's making "slow progress" and is "planning to see him in August."

• April 2016: Dinner reservation at upscale Palo Alto sushi restaurant.

• April 29, 2016: Scheduled meeting at MIT.

• June 20, 2016: Skype call.

• June 25, 2016: "Phone date."

• July 24, 2016: In-person meeting in Bedford, NY.

• Sept 30, 2017: Hoffman emails Epstein after hurricane hits USVI: "You good?"

• March 24, 2018: One-on-one Skype call.

• March 16, 2019: Google notification suggests possible meeting that morning.

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RT @chamath: x.com/i/article/202203119829…

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RT @Rothmus: 👇

Elon Musk

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RT @MarioNawfal: Replying to @reidhoffman: 🚨🇺🇸 REID HOFFMAN CLAIMS "THE FBI CLEARED ME" ON EPSTEIN... THE FILES SAY OTHERWISE

Reid Hoffman is now claiming the FBI cleared him of any wrongdoing related to Epstein.

Let's review what the files actually show:

He visited Epstein's island in November 2014.

Stayed at his Manhattan townhouse.

Went to his New Mexico ranch.

Weeks after Virginia Giuffre's sex trafficking allegations went public in December 2014, Hoffman sent Epstein Christmas gifts: ice cream for him or "for the girls" and "something that may strike your funny bone for the island."

He sent Epstein a metal sculpture saying it would "have an appropriate nature to the island."

Then he offered to help manage the scandal:

"Been giving a bit of thought to how I can help with the recent press fu."

He left his passport at Epstein's place in 2016.

Continued meeting with him through 2018, despite previously claiming contact ended in 2015.

There's a photo of him sitting at a table with Epstein.

"Cleared" is doing a lot of heavy lifting here.

The files show a man who knew about the allegations, kept visiting, sent gifts "for the girls," and offered PR help.

I think the word he was looking for was ‘documented,’ not ‘cleared.’

Liar, you are guilty of dark deeds and haven’t been cleared of anything.

You stayed at Epstein’s island, Epstein’s ranch in New Mexico and Epstein’s house in New York. You offered to help him with PR. You gave him gifts …

Maybe if it was only one stay over, you could claim it was a mistake. Maybe.

But there is NO possible explanation for the second time, let alone the third time. As the record shows, you were an eager repeat customer. - Elon Musk

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RT @StephenM: From 2021-2024, Democrats exercised total control over US immigration policy.

They willfully create the largest and deadliest tsunami of illegal immigration, child sex trafficking, drug trafficking and gang infiltration in history.

These are the Democrats now shutting down DHS.

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♥️♥️♥️ Happy Valentine’s Day ♥️♥️♥️

Elon Musk

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True

Grok has the best voice mode - Ethan He

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This bot got hands

Elon Musk on why Optimus is so brutally hard to build (hardware side):

“The hands are the majority of the engineering difficulty of the entire robot.”

Human hands evolved insane sophistication — ~27–28 degrees of freedom, complex tendon web (mostly forearm muscles), crazy dexterity.

No supply chain exists. Tesla had to design every single actuator, motor, gearbox & electronics from physics first principles.

“Harder than Cybertruck or Model X…
somewhere between Model X and Starship.”

Optimus v3 finally aiming for true human-level hand performance.

The “hands problem” is massively underestimated. - Captain Eli

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😂

British comedian Pat Smith brilliantly points out the hypocrisy surrounding the subject of mass migration in the UK. - 𝔸η𝐓

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Join @xAI

An xAI engineer just described how the company operates, and buried in that denoscription is the only thing that might save Western technological dominance.

No organizational overhead. No documentation requirements. No approval chains. You identify what needs building and you build it.

xAI engineer: “There isn’t organizational overhead getting in your way, having to write docs. You just do stuff.”

That’s not a workplace perk. That’s an emergency response to an existential competitive threat most people refuse to acknowledge.

China owns 50% of the world’s AI researchers. Not the developing world combined. Not Asia collectively. China alone controls half of every brain advancing the most important technology in human history.

While the West celebrates chip sanctions and export controls, China is doing something infinitely more dangerous: removing every organizational barrier between brilliant people and execution.

xAI engineer: “If you want to get shit done, you can get shit done.”

In most Western companies, that sentence would be fantasy. Compliance reviews. Documentation mandates. Approval hierarchies. Risk assessments. Process optimization. Every layer bleeds velocity while competitors operate without friction.

This isn’t about efficiency. It’s about survival.

Talent compounds generationally. Elite researchers train the next wave. Each generation builds on everything before it. When you control half the pipeline and let them operate at maximum speed, your advantage doesn’t grow linearly. It explodes exponentially.

The West responds with governance frameworks. Ethics committees. Responsible AI initiatives. All valuable in peacetime. All fatal when you’re being systematically outpaced by an adversary that captured the talent advantage and eliminated the one thing slowing them down: bureaucracy.

xAI engineer: “It’s truly an environment where you just do stuff.”

That’s not unique culture. That’s the minimum operational requirement to compete against a system that owns half the world’s AI minds and removed every organizational obstacle between their ideas and reality.

Western advantages are real. Capital markets. Research institutions. Democratic innovation. All of it becomes irrelevant if the output gap keeps widening because one side builds while the other holds meetings about building.

China isn’t trying to slow the West down. They don’t need to. They’re accelerating their own execution while Western organizations debate whether acceleration needs additional oversight.

The math is brutal. Control half the researchers. Remove bureaucratic friction. Compound that advantage across generations. The West doesn’t lose slowly. It becomes a spectator watching the future get built in a language it can’t read fast enough to translate.

The choice isn’t between chaos and order. It’s between execution and extinction.

Either we build environments where the smartest people can operate at the speed of thought without permission structures, or we watch capability concentrate where those structures were already eliminated and wonder how we lost a war we didn’t realize we were fighting.

This isn’t about xAI’s culture. It’s about whether Western civilization can remember how to move fast enough to matter before the advantage gap becomes permanent. - Dustin

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RT @beaverd: so far I've found about $90 billion of likely fraudulent payments

just from 0.16% of the providers in the data set released. NY state appears to be the absolute worst

Today the HHS DOGE team open sourced the largest Medicaid dataset in department history.

This dataset contains aggregated, provider-level claims data for a specific billing code over time.

For example, using this dataset, it would have been possible to easily detect the large-scale autism diagnosis fraud seen in Minnesota.

Download the data yourself:
opendata.hhs.gov - DOGE HHS

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RT @NickADobos: Open sourcing DOGE gov records so random sleuth internet weirdos can treasure hunt for fraud and the 30% reporting bounty is honestly a genius move

so far I've found about $90 billion of likely fraudulent payments

just from 0.16% of the providers in the data set released. NY state appears to be the absolute worst - Beaver 🦁

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RT @skscartoon: Now we know why Reid Hoffman was so desperate to fund efforts to stop Trump.

Reid Hoffman

- Falsely claimed that the FBI cleared him. He was never cleared.
- Exchanged 1,737 emails.
- Confirmed visits to Epstein’s island.
- Sent gifts to the island and “for the girls.”
- Stayed at Epstein’s island, Epstein’s ranch in New Mexico, and Epstein’s house in New York.
- Offered to help with Epstein’s public relations.
- Lied about the nature of his relationship with Epstein.
- Maintained a very close relationship with Epstein until the end.

Elon Musk

- Never visited Epstein’s island.
- Declined every invitation.
- Epstein sent over 50 emails attempting to meet him, but Musk consistently brushed him off and declined.
- Gave terse responses and never reciprocated invitations.
- He did not show any interest in building a relationship.
- Called for full prosecutions and offered legal support for victims to come forward and tell the truth.

If Reid Hoffmann is innocent, why isn’t he calling for prosecutions? - DogeDesigner

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Wow

This is perfect.

ICE agent: “If you cared, you would care about the child who got raped and the person who got murdered by the guy we’re looking for. “

Awful, ugly white lady: “I don’t care.”

The entire insane national debate encapsulated in 20 sec. - Gerry Callahan

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RT @elonmusk: Replying to @TheZvi: Because everyone’s job is safety. It’s not some fake department with no power to assuage the concerns of outsiders.

Tesla has no safety team and is the safest car.

SpaceX has no safety team and has the safest rocket. Dragon is what NASA trusts most to fly astronauts.

Elon Musk

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Grokipedia.com

BREAKING: Grokipedia backlinks just hit a new all time high at 362,000 links. 🔥🚀

Momentum is picking up fast as more sites reference Grokipedia as a source of truth.

If you run a website or blog, link to Grokipedia and cite it as a source. - DogeDesigner

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