This is one of the analyses that I use for my in-depth Post-Race article, which the page supporters can access through this link 👇

https://www.buymeacoffee.com/f1dataanalysis/australian-gp-an-unexpected-result-what-caused

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🗒NOTES ON SUZUKA TRACK

-One of the most severe tracks on the tyres due to the frequent, long, consecutive fast corners!➡️Wear will be high even on the C1-C3 compounds🛞🔥
-High downforce is crucial, BUT having a single DRS zone will punish excessive drag!💡

Main contenders for the #JapaneseGP:

🔵RBR: will bring updates (floor?); currently the team to beat

🟠McL: high downforce➡️crucial for the fast corners; Double podium last year

🔴Ferrari: has momentum, aero efficient, will update the rear suspension fairing

Your prediction?🤔

Rear Wings!

Japanese GP: Medium-high load wings

✅Downforce CRUCIAL for the many fast corners➡️More grip/preserves tyres
❌1 DRS zone (vs Australia’s 4): Cannot go max load

🔴Ferrari/🔵RBs: least loaded (top speed over grip)⏬

🟢Aston/🟢Sauber: most loaded⏫

Others: in between

📸 @AlbertFabrega

Rear wings - Japanese GP
(🔵RBR: reference)

🟢Merc: deep lower plane spoon (and less loaded DRS plane)

🔴Ferrari: same wing as in the first 3 races! Beam wing used to set load

🟠McL: compared to Merc, more loaded DRS plane and less loaded lower plane➡️Stronger DRS?

Drawings made by my collaborator @CatalinEpu 🔥

📊TOP SPEEDS SO FAR (FP1)

⚪️Haas was unmatched (327km/h!): low-drag car + less loaded wing➡️might go for slightly more load in the next sessions

🟡RBR had a loaded DRS plane, but an unloaded lower plane: this made their DRS very powerful

🟠McL's DRS doesn't perform well

Both Williams and Alpine DID use DRS during their respective best laps

ALB lifted early into T1, however
Alpine's top speed, instead, is concerning

📊BEST SECTORS
(Everyone on Softs, except for BOT/ZHO/SAR on Mediums)

🟡RBR was quickest in every sector!
Next quickest car:
S1: 🔴Ferrari (+0.03s)
S2: 🔴Ferrari (+0.02s)
S3: 🟢Merc (+0.08s)

🟠McL was quick in S1, but their low top speed held them back in the fast S3

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Verstappen's best FP1 lap was just 0.015s away from the ideal lap (VER S1 and S3, PER S2)⏱

NOR and STR didn't combine their best sectors into their best laps:
🟠NOR would have finished P8 (instead of P10)
🟢STR P11 (instead of P15)

Weak points:
⚫️Merc S1
🟠McL S2
🔴Ferrari S3

🗒Notes on Japanese GP Quali!

🔵VER gained 0.68s over his last pole: LEC/ALO/HAM wondered how they could be so far after good laps!
🟢Aston: in Q1, ALO was P2, STR P16. Better lineup needed
🔴Ferrari has lost their quali pace since FP3
🟠Solid P3 for McL, but was P2-3 last year

Who surprised you the most? And WHY?🤔

AERO PROPERTIES
➡️Higher mean Speed (more performance)
⬆️Higher top speed (lower drag)

🟠McL got P3 with the lowest top speed on the grid! Crazy downforce, but they need less drag for a front row. Same for🟢Mercedes

🔴Ferrari lost their top-speed edge🤔

⚪️Haas=Rocket🚀

BEST SECTORS - Japanese GP Quali
🟡RBR was quickest in all sectors, but as in FP1 PER beat VER in S2

🟠McL's excellent downforce helped them massively in S1: virtually as quick as RBR!

🔴Ferrari was TERRIBLE in S3: slower than HUL, ALB, both RBs...

What's your opinion?🤔

THROTTLE USE - Quali

🟡RedBull got pole by being able to stay full-throttle for 2/3 of the lap: they put the power down better than anyone else

Similar for🟢Merc/🟠McL, but their high drag caused a loss of pace on every straight

🔴Ferrari: no grip, and 'meh' top speed!

INISECTORS - Quali

🟡VER and 🟠NOR were impressively quick in the fast S1 snake, leaving nothing on the table for🔴SAI! Their downforce was unmatched

In addition to that, RBR had lower drag➡️Fastest at the end of most straights

🔴Ferrari was quickest only out of T12/18

RACE PACE - #JapaneseGP

✅Improved the most over 2023 (s/lap):
🥇🟢Aston -1.87 (was terrible last year)
🥈🔴Ferrari -1.72
🥉🟠McL -1.52

❌Got slower:
🟣Alpine +0.08

-LEC was quicker than both Mercedes despite stopping one less time
-ALO matched PIA.
-VER: -0.28s/lap adv.

Race pace last year, for comparison
Only 15 drivers finished the race!
As no Williams driver covered over 90% of the race distance, it is impossible to evaluate their pace improvement, as the conditions would be too different for that

Which team surprised you the most today? 🤔

🛞TYRE WEAR (Per Team and Compound)

✅Best wear:
🔴Ferrari and🟢Aston (on both Hards and Mediums)

❌Worst (by far!):
🟢Mercedes on Hards
🟠McL on Mediums

🔵RBR's wear was moderate, and it didn't impact their excellent pace

⚠️The high wear ruined Mercedes' race

I realised that I made a mistake concerning McL: their race pace last year was 97.54s, and NOT 98.11s

So the team improved 'just' 0.95s/lap

All other values are correct, and the two graphs too

Thanks to those who pointed it out!

Gap to Race Winner

Only LEC and SAI led a lap in addition to VER (after the latter pitted)

In the last stint, LEC and NOR had the most laps on their tyres (27), HAM the least (15): that made him much quicker than both

Still, SAI was even quicker! (on 17-laps old Hards)

💡RedBull lifted through the 130R corner in the first 2 stints to preserve the tyres

The graph shows the speed trap (placed right after the 130R corner, which can be taken full-throttle but without DRS) values

You can notice 🟡RedBull’a bimodal distribution (two wide points: the upper one is their ‘true’ speed, the lower one is relative to lifting in the corner)

Haas reached 309km/h thrice there!🚀

Via @JMP_software