FP1 and SQ analysis + Sprint, Quali, and Race prediction👇

https://buymeacoffee.com/f1dataanalysis/miami-gp-sprint-quali-race-preview

Notes on Miami Sprint

We had:
- Drama even before the start (LEC crash);
- DNFs due to mistakes (SAI, ALO);
- Excellent strategic calls (HAM, TSU) and bad ones (NOR) saved by luck (safety car timing);
- Turn 1 controversy (PIA vs ANT);
- A crash/penalty/missed pit due to unsafe release (VER vs ANT).

In case of ALO, LAW’s fault was clear.

Still, mistakes were the cause of 2 DNFs (I’m specifying it here because it wasn’t clear enough.)

MIAMI GP - SPRINT: TOP SPEED PER LAP

TSU reached 345km/h during the few laps of the chaotic Miami GP Sprint: not bad on a damp city circuit! He was running a slightly less loaded wing than VER (worth around 3km/h in SQ).

BOR reached 329km/h WITHOUT DRS.

Only 319km/h for PIA (no DRS/tows).

MIAMI GP - RACE PACE

Mclaren's dominance was extreme: the SLOWER driver (NOR) was still over half a second quicker than any other (VER)!

Congrats, Williams: super-close to Mercedes and ahead of Ferrari. 👏

1) 🟠 McL;
2) 🔵 RBR +0.64s/lap;
3) 🟢 Merc +0.68;
4) 🔵 Williams +0.71;
5) 🔴 Ferrari +0.88.

Last year's race, as a reference:

Ferrari's demise and Williams' resurgence are clear and incredible.

VER had a damaged floor.

MIAMI GP - TOP SPEED PER LAP

Alonso beat HAM's record for the highest top speed in the 2025 season: 355 km/h! 😲

He got a QUINTUPLE DRS train behind HAD on Lap 5: he reached 12673rpm in 8th gear, or ~900rpm more than his usual 7th to 8th upshift rpm! 🚀

The two Williams and Ferrari reached the highest top speed on average (low drag + frequent tows and DRS).

VER only reached 321km/h without DRS: His more loaded wing and early ERS deployment strategy induced clipping (speed decrease at full throttle due to reduced electric deployment🪫).

The previous record for the season was set by HAM, in China (351km/h).

We're still far from last year's record, though (Albon reached 369km/h in Las Vegas).

F1 cars LOSE speed at the end of long straights, even at full throttle 🤯

This is called 'Clipping': here's how it works!

A F1 PU generates ~1000hp:
⛽️840hp from the combustion engine;
⚡️160hp from the ERS.

In the race, battery management is key. As such, engineers program the ERS to:
🟢 1) Deploy maximum power early on the straight (so that the speed gained can be used for many metres).
🔴 2) Progressively reduce its power output: at the end of the straight, the ERS is slowing the car down to recharge the battery!

Therefore, power reduces from ~1000hp (840+160🔋) to ~680hp (840-160🪫): power drops so much that the speed decreases!

Notice that the acceleration (red line) turns negative even at full throttle (green line). Low drag and efficient ERS decrease this issue.

This will only get much worse next year, as the contribution from the ERS to the total power will be much larger (The peak speed will reached even sooner with a larger drop in speed after that).

Made via @JMP_software

MIAMI GP - RACE: GAP TO RACE WINNER

RUS got on the podium, yet OCO (who finished P12) was closer to him in pace than RUS was to the driver he had in front (NOR)! 😳

That's the extent of McLaren's domination in Miami (Track-specific: the race was close in Jeddah).

Pace (only valid non-outlier laps)
PIA quickest;
NOR +0.09s/lap;
RUS +0.68;
OCO +1.20.

NOR recovered 3.7s to PIA (in management mode) after overtaking VER, but lost ~7s overtaking him.

AVERAGE QUALI GAP

1) McL +0.02%;
2) RBR +0.23%;
3) Merc +0.24% (As quick as RBR);
4) Ferrari +0.50% (Big gap);
5) Williams +0.79%;
6) RBs +0.91%;
7) Alpine +1.00%;
8) Aston +1.43%;
9) Haas +1.46%;
10) Aston +1.61%.

[Each team's best lap considered]

Only Mercedes and Haas have shown a consistent, positive performance trend.

🗒IMOLA PREVIEW

Debut for the softest compound (C6): highest grip, highest wear!

One-stopper (Medium-Hard) is likely (low abrasion, hard to overtake) despite one-step softer compounds vs '24.

The tall kerbs can cause punctures or suspension damage.

NOR and VER had the same pace in 2024; LEC was close!

My prediction:
1) 🟠 McLaren
2 )🔵 RBR (VER)
3) ⚫️ Mercedes (or 🔴 Ferrari if updates work)

What's YOURS? 👀


📸 @pirellisport

Emilia-Romagna GP - Rear Wings

🟠 McLaren and 🔴 Ferrari have a different rear wing design philosophy: they use a spoon-shaped lower plane, which reduces aero load when the wing is least efficient (close to the endplates).

🔵 RBR's design is opposite: medium load across all the lower plane.

⚫️ Mercedes is a middle ground.

Compared to Miami, McLaren has increased their wing load: expect them to regain their clear downforce edge again, but their top speed should start to suffer too.

[In Miami, their downforce wasn't miles in front of others; in fact, they got no poles. Instead, they had a massive race pace advantage, due to much better tyre management, and possibly due to the discussed tyre temperature management through phase-changing materials.]

📸 @AlbertFabrega

Red Bull's sidepod inlet update is substantial, and makes them yet another top team (after 🔴Ferrari and 🟠McLaren) to have a sidepod wing acting as overbite.

The aim should be drag reduction [@AeroTechVH], and RBR's drag was already very low!

[Photos by @RosarioGiuliana]

Ferrari's and McLaren's sidepod wings, as a reference.

[Photo by http://Crash.net]

Emilia-Romagna GP - Practice 2 Analyses

1) GAP TO IDEAL LAP:

💥If you thought that McLaren's 1-2 FP2 finish indicated dominance, then hear this: their ideal lap (the combination of the team's best 3 sectors) was OVER 6 tenths clear of anyone else! 🤯

Telemetry shows that PIA and NOR were running similar setups, so that lap (1:14.939, just 0.193s slower than last year's pole) was likely achievable!

2) TOP SPEEDS:

The Alpine drivers deployed a lot of energy (ERS) on the main straight: GAS and PIA were matched at 317km/h, but then GAS gained 16km/h (PIA just 11km/h). This was worth 0.116s, so his performance was great anyway.

RBR is a low drag car, and their sidepod update was aimed at reducing drag; so far, their top speed has been excellent.

RUS had high drag and also weak ERS deployment on several straights (lower PU mode).

3) HIGH-SPEED GRIP (Downforce):

Mercedes' cornering is excellent, yet McLaren still has the edge under braking.

Those of you who really love data and want to support my page will find the 63 analyses I’ve produced so far through this link 👇

https://buymeacoffee.com/f1dataanalysis/imola-gp-analyses-repository-3694635