MEXICO CITY GP - RACE | Gap to Race Winner

Notice how close PIA was to the driver in front throughout the race!

MEXICO CITY GP - QUALIFYING: DRS EFFECTIVENESS

So… I discovered something while digging through some old code of mine...

Remember 🔵 Red Bull's 'godly' DRS from 2023? It's back!

In Mexico it reduced drag by an estimated 34.7%! ✅

Others:
🟢 Merc: 34.0% ✅
🟠 McL: 27.1%
🔴 Ferrari: 21.4% ❌

In Austin? Same trend! (lower values due to less loaded wings):
🔵 RBR: 29.3%✅
🟢 Merc: 26.7%
🔴 Ferrari: 21.9%❌
🟠 McL: 21.5%❌

McL’s deficit makes it harder for its drivers to battle on track, which favours VER.

The proof is in the first comment.
👇

I performed a nonlinear regression using a simplified model of longitudinal dynamics:

P = m*v*a + 0.5*CxA*ρ^v^3


So:

P = (m*a+k*v2)*v

P = m*v*a + k^v^3


Engine power P and car mass m don’t change with DRS
I estimated k twice: first using instants without DRS, then with DRS (in quali→no tow).

Results are robust, as both teammates showed similar values (e.g. 21.4% for LEC and 21.9% for HAM).

Repost this if you found it interesting!

What’s going on with Alpine? 🤔

In Mexico, every team went quicker in quali than last year - except for Alpine, which was 0.654s SLOWER!

Gasly said he was satisfied with the progress from Friday to Saturday… yet he qualified 18th (8th last year).

The team claims it’s focused on 2026, but so are most others... and that shouldn’t make them SLOWER than last year.

Underpowered engine, poor low-speed performance… they’ve only scored points at four tracks so far, mainly those demanding high aero efficiency: Bahrain, Catalunya, Silverstone, Spa.

They currently sit dead last in the WCC, their worst showing since 1978!

What's your take? 👀

Made via @JMP_software

SÃO PAULO GP 🇧🇷 | WING THURSDAY!

Medium-load setups on average, but with plenty of variety:
• Medium-low: Mercedes, Racing Bulls (better if dry);
• Medium-high: Aston, Alpine, Haas (better if wet).

Also big design contrasts: ‘V’-shaped lower plane for McLaren/Ferrari vs full-width for Red Bull.

📸 @AlbertFabrega

SÃO PAULO GP 🇧🇷 | SPRINT QUALIFYING

BEST SECTOR GAP:
NOR was just 0.014s behind VER in Sector 1, and quickest in the other 2. VER lost over 4 tenths in S2 alone!

Teams by ideal lap/sector
1) 🟠 McL/NOR (quick everywhere);
2) 🟢 Aston/ALO (well-rounded);
3) ⚫️ Merc (Struggled in S2, good S3);
4) 🔵 RBR/VER (Fantastic S1, disaster S2);
...
7) 🔴 Ferrari! Slow everywhere, and worst car in S3!

SÃO PAULO GP 🇧🇷 | SPRINT PACE

1) NOR;
2) ANT +0.07s/lap;
3) RUS +0.24;
4) VER +0.35;
5) LEC +0.72;
6) HAM +0.85;
7) ALO +0.90.

Highest top speed: 351km/h (BEA).

Best off the line: OCO / Worst: STR.

SÃO PAULO GP 🇧🇷 | QUALIFYING: AERO PERFORMANCE
Cannot be changed for the race

Red Bull ran the least drag, Sauber the most.

McL was quickest through excellent aero efficiency (low drag with high downforce).

What's YOUR prediction for the race?

SÃO PAULO GP 🇧🇷 | RACE: TOP SPEED PER LAP

🚀 With a fresh power unit, Verstappen hit the highest top speed (346 km/h, same as low-drag Sauber) in his stunning charge from pit lane to the podium, despite an early puncture!

Reminiscent of Hamilton’s 2017/2021 Brazil comebacks.

🏁 Fastest race pace too, even in traffic; full analysis tomorrow!

SÃO PAULO GP 🇧🇷 | RACE: RACE PACE ANALYSIS

🔵 VER quickest on average despite traffic! (‘Aided’ by the puncture-forced extra tyre set).

🟠 McL next quickest, followed by 🟢 Mercedes - and ⚪️Haas (Austin upgrades clearly worked)!

🔴 Ferrari’s pace impossible to gauge after a disastrous weekend.

SÃO PAULO GP 🇧🇷 | RACE: ACCELERATION TIMES

How consistent are F1 drivers?

Only 0.5s separates the best (BEA, both Saubers) and worst (LEC, ANT, both Astons) 0–200 km/h times!

Softs launched slightly better than Mediums, while both Astons started on Hards, leading to ‘bad’ starts.

SÃO PAULO GP 🇧🇷 | RACE: TYRE DEG AND STRATEGIES

The fact that we had different strategies does not change this: compounds weren’t equal at all performance-wise!

🟡 Medium > 🔴 Soft >> ⚪️ Hard

Hards were dropped after poor pace, while Softs ran only as the mandatory second compound: Mediums had better degradation AND pace!

AVERAGE GAP TO POLE AFTER 21 RACES

🟠 McLaren, 🟣 Alpine: the only two #F1 teams that got farther from pole as the season went on!

Everyone else closed the gap; ⚪️ Haas clawed back over a third of its deficit.

In the 2nd half, 🟡 Racing Bulls overtook 🔵 Williams, while Alpine went from 7th to last!

Ferrari improved more (0.18% closer) than Mercedes (0.09%), who did better than RBR (0.03%): the top 4 teams got much closer by the season's end.


Made via @JMP_software

LAS VEGAS GP | WING THURSDAY!

🔴 Ferrari's wing (Monza-spec) is the least loaded among top teams: the front surface will be minimal once DRS opens!
Will there be enough downforce to heat the rears?

🟠 McL's V-shaped lower plane preserves some downforce.
⚫️ Mercedes: much deeper lower plane.

⚪️ Racing Bull's upper plane is skinny and 'twisted': minimal drag without DRS, but little to be gained from it.

Ferrari and Sauber might set a new top speed record: ALB reached 369km/h last year!

📸 @AlbertFabrega

LAS VEGAS GP - PRACTICE 2 | DRS EFFECTIVENESS

I estimated how much each car’s Power/Drag ratio improved with DRS: NOR’s gain was just ONE THIRD of RBR’s and HAM’s!!!

🔵 RBR: VER 19.6% vs TSU 19.9%;
🔴 Ferrari: LEC 11.3% vs HAM 20.1%;
🟢 Mercedes: RUS 10.2% vs ANT 14.4%;
🟠 McL: NOR 6.7% vs PIA 17.6%.

❌ Less effective DRS;
❌ ERS deployment dropped with DRS ON.

Result:
Lowest top speed in FP2 (343km/h, -3km/h vs PIA,
-11km/h vs BEA)!

This smells 'lower ERS mode' to me...