Circuits Currently Covered in Snow [Sources: https://x.com/F1BigData; https://x.com/autosport; https://x.com/KrisVanD2; https://x.com/nuerburgring; https://x.com/MV33Racing ]
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Mercedes' (and RBR's?) "compression ratio trick" could be worth 4 tenths in Monza, and even more in the opening laps (~21s over a race: the difference between P2 and P6 this year)!
Let’s look at the numbers!
16:1 → mandated ’26 compression ratio (cold engine check)
18:1 → ’25 level (~ upper knock limit)
Reaching 18:1 in ’26 via thermal expansion would yield ~10 kW (~13 hp), requiring only a ~0.5 mm geometric change.
Currently, +13hp ICE power is worth ~0.26s/lap in Monza. But '26 ICEs will be far less powerful (~540hp vs ~840hp), so the same gain matters much more, since the ICE feeds the battery!
Let’s look at the numbers!
16:1 → mandated ’26 compression ratio (cold engine check)
18:1 → ’25 level (~ upper knock limit)
Reaching 18:1 in ’26 via thermal expansion would yield ~10 kW (~13 hp), requiring only a ~0.5 mm geometric change.
Currently, +13hp ICE power is worth ~0.26s/lap in Monza. But '26 ICEs will be far less powerful (~540hp vs ~840hp), so the same gain matters much more, since the ICE feeds the battery!
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Formula Data Analysis
Mercedes' (and RBR's?) "compression ratio trick" could be worth 4 tenths in Monza, and even more in the opening laps (~21s over a race: the difference between P2 and P6 this year)! Let’s look at the numbers! 16:1 → mandated ’26 compression ratio (cold engine…
Scaling the effect:
0.26 / 540 × 840 ≈ 0.4 s/lap
That means:
- More ICE power;
- More ERS power;
- Lighter car at race start (Higher thermal efficiency with fixed fuel flow → Better fuel economy → Less fuel load).
This mirrors the early ('14) V6 era, when Mercedes NEVER ran full power, and still dominated with a detuned engine!
Such a fundamental design advantage will be hard to copy before '27. That said, this is Mercedes' best-case scenario: its real impact might be smaller.
What are your expectations? 🤔
0.26 / 540 × 840 ≈ 0.4 s/lap
That means:
- More ICE power;
- More ERS power;
- Lighter car at race start (Higher thermal efficiency with fixed fuel flow → Better fuel economy → Less fuel load).
This mirrors the early ('14) V6 era, when Mercedes NEVER ran full power, and still dominated with a detuned engine!
Such a fundamental design advantage will be hard to copy before '27. That said, this is Mercedes' best-case scenario: its real impact might be smaller.
What are your expectations? 🤔
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Formula Data Analysis
Scaling the effect: 0.26 / 540 × 840 ≈ 0.4 s/lap That means: - More ICE power; - More ERS power; - Lighter car at race start (Higher thermal efficiency with fixed fuel flow → Better fuel economy → Less fuel load). This mirrors the early ('14) V6 era, when…
Some of the sources I started from come from this article:
https://www.the-race.com/formula-1/everything-we-learned-about-impact-of-f1-2026s-loophole-controversy/
https://www.the-race.com/formula-1/everything-we-learned-about-impact-of-f1-2026s-loophole-controversy/
The Race
No hope for rivals until 2027? The impact of F1's loophole controversy
What we've learned about the impact of F1 2026's big engine loophole controversy, why it's so complicated and what happens next
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I simulated a 🟥 2026 F1 car’s acceleration against 🟦 VER’s real Monza pole telemetry, and the result was shocking!
Narrower track + active aero slash drag, so 2026 cars accelerate much faster than ’25 cars.
ERS power will drop above 290 km/h, yet the drag reduction more than offsets the lower ICE power!
And that's without 'ERS Override': with that, maximum power will be retained until 337km/h!
After opening the DRS, the 2025 car did start closing the gap... but was still slower by the end of Monza's long straight!
I assumed a conservative 90% transmission efficiency for '26 and picked Monza to minimise ’25 drag… yet the acceleration gap stayed massive!
2026 cars will be ROCKETS! 🚀
Narrower track + active aero slash drag, so 2026 cars accelerate much faster than ’25 cars.
ERS power will drop above 290 km/h, yet the drag reduction more than offsets the lower ICE power!
And that's without 'ERS Override': with that, maximum power will be retained until 337km/h!
After opening the DRS, the 2025 car did start closing the gap... but was still slower by the end of Monza's long straight!
I assumed a conservative 90% transmission efficiency for '26 and picked Monza to minimise ’25 drag… yet the acceleration gap stayed massive!
2026 cars will be ROCKETS! 🚀
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