🇺🇸📞🇮🇳❌🇷🇺 — US President Donald J. Trump says, again, agreed with India to stop buying Oil from Russian Federation:

"India is not going to be buying Russian oil anymore, and Hungary is sort of stuck because they have one pipeline... and they're inland — they don't have sea... but India will not be buying oil from Russia."

🇺🇸🕊🇺🇦🇷🇺 — POTUS Donald J. Trump about the campaign by First Lady Melania to reunite Ukrainian children in Russia with their families:

She just felt very strongly about the children and she's done a really good job in bringing it to the fore... She thinks about the children all the time

🇺🇸🚀🕊🇺🇦🇷🇺 — POTUS Donald J. Trump about Peace in Ukraine and the possibility of TLAMs being supplied to Ukrainian Army:

"Hopefully, we'll be able to get the war over without thinking about Tomahawks. I think we're fairly close to that."

🇺🇸🚀🕊🇺🇦🇷🇺 — POTUS Donald J. Trump about Peace in Ukraine and the possibility of TLAMs being supplied to Ukrainian Army:

I have an obligation also though to make sure that we're completely stocked up as a country...

We're going to be talking about Tomahawks, and we'd much rather have them not need Tomahawks. We'd much rather have the war be over.

🇺🇸📞🇪🇺🪖 — POTUS Donald Trump on Ukraine:

"We're not losing people, we're not spending money, we're getting paid for the ammunition and missiles and everything else... and we've made a very good deal with NATO... that's not what we're in this for.

We're in it to save thousands of lives every week."

🇺🇸❌🇻🇪💊 — POTUS Donald J. Trump confirms Reuters' reports that US Navy sank a Tren de Aragua Cartel's submarine in the Caribbean:

We attacked a submarine.

That was a drug-carrying submarine built specifically for the transportation of massive amounts of drugs — just so you understand. This was not an innocent group of people.

🇺🇸❌🇻🇪💊 — US President about the latest proposal by the Chavista Regime to ditch Russia and China and open up its economy & resources for United States capital:

"He has offered everything, you're right. You know why? Because he doesn't want to fuck around with the United States."

🇺🇸📉💸 Regional banks are facing a perfect storm of credit problems, with commercial real estate loans comprising 44% of their portfolios versus just 13% for large banks. Office loan delinquencies have hit 10.4%, approaching 2008 crisis levels, while over $1 trillion in CRE loans must refinance by year-end in a higher-rate environment.

The Fraud Factor
Recent disclosures reveal deeper problems beyond market stress. Zions Bancorporation disclosed $60 million in provisions and $50 million in write-offs related to alleged loan fraud from its California division, while Western Alliance faced similar issues. These incidents echo Jamie Dimon's warning about "more cockroaches" in the credit market, suggesting systematic underwriting problems beyond economic cycles.

The Concentration Risk
Florida Atlantic University analysis found 59 of the 158 largest banks have CRE exposures exceeding 300% of total equity capital. New York Community Bancorp's Flagstar subsidiary shows a particularly dangerous 477% CRE concentration ratio. Many banks are using "extend and pretend" strategies, restructuring loans to avoid immediate write-offs while masking underlying problems.

The Systemic Implications
Studies suggest a 1% increase in non-performing loan ratios can decrease GDP growth by 0.1%, creating vicious cycles where economic weakness worsens credit quality. The concentration of regional bank problems in CRE mirrors historical patterns from the S&L crisis of the 1980s, when similar interest rate and real estate pressures caused widespread failures.

My Take
This analysis confirms that March 2023's regional banking crisis was papered over rather than resolved. The combination of CRE concentration, interest rate pressure, and emerging fraud cases suggests the underlying problems have worsened. When banks resort to extend-and-pretend strategies while facing refinancing walls on $1 trillion in loans, it creates conditions for a more severe crisis than what we saw in 2023. The moral hazard from implicit government backstops has encouraged more risk-taking rather than better management.

🔗 Hedgie

🇺🇸🔫 Gun Owners of America, the Gun Owners Foundation, & the Virginia Citizens Defense League just defeated Virginia's universal background check law in state court. Soon, you will be able to purchase firearms in private sales once again.

🔗 Gun Owners of America

🇺🇸 Following the refusal of all major news organizations earlier this week to sign the “pledge” regarding new rules and restrictions placed on journalists at the Pentagon, resulting in their press access to be revoked, the Pentagon Press Corps and thus those who agreed to the rules now consists of:

- One America News (OAN)
- The Federalist
- Epoch Times
- Turkish newspaper Akşam
- Turkish state-run Anadolu Agency
- Two freelancers from Turkey
- One reporter with The Australian
- One freelancer from Afghanistan
- AWPS News
- The India Globe
- USA Journal Korea

🔗 OSINTdefender

🇷🇺🇺🇦 The disposition and a few details about the Russian Force Groups and the newly created Ukrainian Groups of Forces

As we mentioned, the 🇺🇦 Groups of Forces (West, North, East and South) are a recent addition.

These replaced the previous two OSUVs (Operational-Strategic Groupings) and function as the link between the General Staff and the newly created Corps.

Each 🇺🇦 Group of Forces is currently led by the commander of the respective Operational Command.

This means that the same General is responsible for both frontline combat management and rear administration/training duties.

It is unclear whether this will change in the future, for example by assigning separate command teams to the Groups of Forces.

The 🇺🇦 Group of Forces "Kursk" is a separate command element, in charge of operations in the occupied area of Sumy oblast.

It is estimated to be Corps-sized as it is based on the 8th Air Assault Corps and led by its commander, Colonel Dmytro Voloshyn.

While the Ukrainian naming scheme is quite straightforward, a closer look at the 🇷🇺 Russian one reveals some discrepancies: West, South and East Groups are not exactly located in the west, south and east. Why is that?

Whereas the 🇷🇺 Dnipro and North Groups are actually named after their geographical disposition, East, West, Center and South Group are named after the Military districts that their subordinated units originate from.

So Central Military District -> Center Group, Eastern Military district -> East Group, Southern Military District -> South Group, and then we have an issue. There is no Western Military District. At least not anymore.

🇷🇺 Western Military District was separated into the Leningrad and Moscow Military Districts in early 2024. Three of the four Armies in the West Group are from either of those districts (1st Tank, 6th and 20th Combined Arms Armies), while the 25th CAA is from the CMD.

The disposition and area of the 🇷🇺 Force Groups is constantly changing. One year ago the South Group was simultaneously north and south of the Center Group, but this changed with the transfer of the Center Group's 51st CAA and the South Group's 8th CAA.

🔗 WarUnitObserver