🇯🇵 The Japanese central bank is losing control of the Yen again. When it hits the critical 160 level they will be forced to respond, which collapses the Yen carry trade fueling US stocks.

🔗 Financelot

🇯🇵 The Japanese yen is falling, it's at around $155 per dollar, the weakest level since mid January

There's a massive interest rate gap between the US and Japan. The Fed is holding rates around 3.75%-4.00% while Japan's rates are basically zero at 0.5%. This creates an insane opportunity for traders. They borrow yen at nearly 0%, convert it to dollars and stick those dollars in US Treasury bonds earning around 3.75%+.That's free money, so everyone piles into the trade. The more they sell yen to buy dollars, the weaker the yen gets

The Bank of Japan could raise rates to make yen borrowing more expensive and defend the currency but they're completely boxed in. Japan's economy just shrank 1.8% annualized last quarter, the first contraction in six quarters. Raising rates now would kill what little growth they have. So traders know the BOJ won't act which means they keep selling the yen with confidence.

Prime Minister Takaichi is about to announce 17-20 trillion yen in fiscal stimulus to prop up the economy. This actually makes the currency collapse worse. The bond market is already freaking out pushing Japanese government bond yields to multiyear highs. Why? Because everyone sees what's coming, massive deficits,more debt and a weaker yen to pay it all back. The real issue with Japan isn't a lack of spending, it's all structural. The population is aging, growth is stalled and deflation expectations are baked in. You can't print your way out of that. Spending more just signals you're desperate which tanks the yen further.

so what happens next? The yen keeps falling which makes imports more expensive pushing inflation higher. Also, wages aren't keeping up, they only grew 1.9% last month. So ordinary Japanese people get poorer. The government then feels pressure to spend even more stimulus to cushion the blow which weakens the yen again. It's a doom loop. If we hit 160 yen per dollar, the government might actually step in with currency intervention but that's just temporary market theater. The fundamentals don't support yen strength until the Fed cuts rates significantly or Japan gets its fiscal house in order and neither is happening soon.

🔗 Stock Market News

🇺🇸🪖🗺 — Multiple USAF reconnaissance units currently off the coast of Venezuela randomly all decided to turn on their transponders!

🇺🇸❌🇻🇪 — USAF throwing a party outside Venezuelan coast?

Multiple USAF planes without identification spotted at Venezuelan coast, including a "Party11" plane

🇺🇸❌🇻🇪 — According to observers, these are US Navy F/A-18 Hornets, likely from USS Gerald Ford Aircraft carrier

🇺🇸❌🇻🇪 — FELIX11 now showing and confirming it is an US Navy F/A-18E Super Hornet, currently ~80 miles from Venezuelan coast

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🇺🇸🇻🇪⚡️ — Overview of the U.S. military assets deployed to SOUTHCOM as part of the buildup targeting Venezuela and Nicolás Maduro, officially described by the Trump administration as a “war on drugs,” but in reality is an effort to push for regime change.

@TabZLIVE

🇻🇪🇻🇪❌🇺🇸🇺🇸 — The dictator of Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro, accused the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency of planning attacks on strategic facilities in Venezuelan territory and urged organized workers to remain alert.

🇷🇺🇺🇸📝🕊🤝🇺🇦 — 📰 ZeroHedge | US Pressuring Ukraine To Make Serious Territorial Concessions In First: Report | November 19, 2025:

"(...)

A senior Kremlin official cited in Axios said he was "optimistic" about the plan’s prospects, arguing that it aligns more closely with Moscow's views than previous diplomatic efforts.

(...)

Dmitriev revealed to Axios he spent Oct. 24–26 in Miami in intensive talks with Witkoff and Trump advisers. Crucially he said that for the first time "we feel the Russian position is really being heard."

Update(1429ET): It looks like for the first time Washington is getting serious about ending the Ukraine war, now apparently offering territorial concessions. And the Trump White House is reportedly leaning on President Zelensky to accept, per the FT:

“According to people with direct knowledge of the document, the draft plan would require Ukraine to cede the remainder of the eastern Donbas region — including land currently under Kyiv control — and cut the size of its armed forces by half.

Crucially, it also calls for Ukraine to abandon key categories of weaponry and would include the rollback of US military assistance that has been vital to its defence, potentially leaving the country vulnerable to future Russian aggression.

It would also stipulate that Russian be recognized as an official state language in Ukraine and grant official status to the local branch of the Russian Orthodox Church — provisions echoing long-standing Kremlin political objectives.”

The 28-point Trump also reportedly plan calls for Russia to gain full de facto control of Luhansk and Donetsk.  In Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the current lines of control would mostly be frozen in place, according to the plan which is sure to be controversial in Europe."

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🔗 Source:

❝😵‍💫🆗❞📝🕊🇺🇸🇷🇺 — 📰 ZeroHedge | Zelensky 'Agrees' To Engage On US Plan To End War, Features Territorial Concessions | November 20, 2025:

"At this point Axios, the Financial Times, the NY Times, and Ukrainian regional media have all said that the new peace plan being 'secretly' pushed by the Trump administration contains significant territorial concessions. Additionally, there are reportedly stipulations that would see Ukraine scale back its armed forces, stop receiving some Western weapons, and stops hosting all foreign troops.

A source has also told RBC-Ukraine that a key provision is that the Ukrainian government commits to a formal refusal for future NATO membership. The same report said things are taken further, as Russian officials and troops would receive amnesty for all wartime crimes.

Additionally, international and US-led sanctions would reportedly be lifted on Moscow, paving the way for Russia's return to the global economy."

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