🇯🇵 Japan's 10Y Government Bond Yield surges to 1.84%, its highest level since April 2008.

📝 Stock Market News: Japan’s 10 year government bond yield jumping to around 1.8% basically means Japan’s borrowing cost is suddenly way higher than it has been in almost two decades (save this).

For years, Japan lived in a world of near zero interest rates where the central bank bought a ton of government bonds and kept yields pinned down. Now inflation has picked up, the central bank is slowly stepping back and the new government is planning a big, debt funded spending package so investors are demanding more interest to keep lending to Japan’s government.

To Put simply, markets are starting to worry about how much Japan has borrowed and whether the government is being disciplined. When that trust weakens, bond prices fall and yields shoot up which is what the chart is showing.

Higher yields mean, the government has to spend more just to pay interest on its huge debt, banks and insurers that hold those bonds can take mark to market hits, and borrowing costs across the economy (for mortgages, business loans, etc.) drift higher over time

There are knock on effects for the rest of the world too. Japan is one of the biggest players in global bond markets, and its ultra low yields have long funded carry trades into foreign assets; as Japanese yields rise, some of that money can get pulled back home which can pressure other bond markets and risk assets.

With an inflation rate of 3% and 10 year bonds at 1.85%, there is more room for the yields to grow even higher.

🔗 Kobeissi Letter

🪙 Bitcoin extends losses to -5% on the day as crypto erases -$150 billion in market cap.

Just $600+ million in liquidations today.

📝Stock Market News: Bitcoin’s selling off because macro and positioning lined up badly at the same time. Japanese 2 year bond yields popping above 1% for the first time since 2008 is the market’s way of saying the Bank of Japan might actually tighten after years of ultra cheap money. When that backdrop shifts, global risk gets repriced, volatility picks up and the fastest thing big money can hit is liquid high beta stuff like BTC.

This move is really about leverage getting flushed. That initial macro driven drop was enough to crack some short term support levels and trigger stops, which then started liquidating crowded long perp positions. Once exchanges are force selling hundreds of millions of dollars of leveraged longs into a thin overnight order book, you get that straight down candle, each liquidation chews through bids, gaps the book and drags the next group of margin stretched traders into the same trap.

The bigger point is that Bitcoin is behaving like a macro asset that’s very sensitive to interest rate expectations and global liquidity not as some isolated digital gold immune from the rest of the system. As long as the story is that yields can rise and safe assets pay more, BTC faces a headwind and trades as high beta risk.

📝: Japan is tightening while the Fed moves toward easing. Two major economies pulling in opposite directions rarely create smooth conditions. At the end of the day, the system still lacks liquidity.

🔗 Kobeissi Letter

🇷🇺🇨🇳Vladimir Putin signed visa-free agreement for citizens of China. Now they will be able to enter the country without a visa for 30 days.

🇪🇺⚔️🇷🇺 EU tells Trump: You can’t pardon Putin for war crimes in Ukraine

Any move to “wipe the slate clean” for Russia in a peace deal would be “a historic mistake of huge proportions,” the EU justice commissioner tells POLITICO.

Donald Trump’s drive to secure peace in Ukraine must not let Vladimir Putin off the hook for war crimes committed by Russian forces, a top EU official has warned, effectively setting a new red line for a deal.

In an interview with POLITICO, Michael McGrath, the European commissioner for justice and democracy, said negotiators must ensure the push for a ceasefire does not result in Russia escaping prosecution.

His comments reflect concerns widely held in European capitals that the original American blueprint for a deal included the promise of a “full amnesty for actions committed during the war,” alongside plans to reintegrate Russia into the world economy.

📝: The EU is in an existential war with Russia and it is fully aware it can't win without American support so it is trying every trick in the book to sink every peace deal as it would make, at least for the short term, partners out of America and Russia.

🔗 https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-vladimir-putin-war-crimes-volodymyr-zelenskyy-ukraine/

🇺🇸💬🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦 — 🇩🇪 BILD:

""We have good chances to conclude a peaceful deal". Trump expressed optimism after talks between Ukraine and US representatives

The meeting of delegations from Ukraine and the United States concluded in Florida. President of the United States Donald Trump generally expressed optimism, however, he mentioned "complex small problems" of Ukraine and gave as an example "useless" corruption scandal in the country. But later Trump stated:

"I think we have good chances to conclude a deal," he told journalists on board the presidential aircraft Air Force One.

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the same time held talks with the leadership of the European Commission and NATO:

"I talked on the phone with Mark Rutte, and we will continue our conversation in the coming days. These are important days, and a lot can change," Zelenskyy wrote about these talks on X."

🔗 Source:

🏳🗣🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦 — 🇩🇪 BILD:

""The issue is not just about ending the war — it is about creating a mechanism that will allow Ukrainians to never again experience war" — Marco Rubio commented on the results of the meeting in Florida

Among the participants in the negotiations on the peace plan in Florida is U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio. He hinted at what the final agreement for Ukraine should include:

"The issue is not just about ending the war — it is about ending it in such a way that a mechanism and a path forward are created, allowing them [Ukrainians] to remain independent and sovereign and never again experience war"

— said Rubio at the beginning of the meeting, according to New York Post.

He continued this thought after the negotiations:

"We also want to provide Ukraine with long-term security guarantees so that it is never again subjected to an invasion"

Head of the Ukrainian delegation Rustem Umerov expressed gratitude to the U.S. for its support, but did not comment on what progress was achieved:

"Our goal is a prosperous, strong Ukraine. We discussed all important issues that are significant for Ukraine and the Ukrainian people, and the U.S. expressed extraordinary support"

— said Umerov."

🔗 Source:

🪙 Bitcoin drops below $85,000 as 24-hour levered position liquidations rise to $800 million.

🔗 Kobeissi Letter

📉 Crypto liquidations surge to $900 million over the last 24 hours as Bitcoin falls toward $84,000.

No headlines or market moving news, yet Bitcoin has erased -$120 billion in market cap in 24 hours.

Leverage is a dangerous game.

🔗 Kobeissi Letter