🇶🇦🛢⚠️ Qatar expects all Gulf energy producers to shut down exports within weeks if the Iran conflict continues and drives oil to $150 a barrel, ​the country's Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi told the Financial Times in an interview ‌published on Friday.

🔗 https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/qatar-energy-minister-warns-war-will-force-gulf-stop-energy-exports-within-weeks-2026-03-06/

🇺🇸⚔️🇮🇷 Donald Trump started the war with Iran without filling up the U.S. Strategic Oil Reserve, making American consumers vulnerable to price shocks

The reserve, created in 1974 following the Arab oil embargo, was left well below its capacity after Biden opened the taps to contain crude prices following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Trump has since failed to fulfil the vow he made in his inauguration speech last year to “refill our reserves right up to the top again”.

The outcome has left the US short of firepower to quell a new surge in petrol prices triggered by Trump’s war in Iran and Tehran’s retaliatory strikes on energy assets in the Gulf, which have hurt supplies.

The Trump administration had missed the opportunity to refill the reserve last year when oil was cheaper, he said. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for a fifth of global supply, would make it harder to replenish the SPR.

The reserve currently contains 415mn barrels of oil, or about 20 days of total US consumption — well below its 714mn-barrel capacity. Drawing down too much of the oil too quickly could damage the salt caverns holding it, say experts. It would cost more than $20bn to refill, according to the US Department of Energy.

Funding shortages and maintenance delays at the underground facilities in Texas and Louisiana have also hindered replenishment. Biden released 180mn barrels starting in 2021 as petrol prices rose towards record highs in 2022.

Soaring US shale output in recent decades has insulated the US somewhat from the type of physical supply shortages seen in the 1970s oil shocks or Europe’s energy crisis.

But US oil prices have risen 16 per cent since Trump launched the attacks on Iran last weekend, pushing the cost of petrol prices — refined from crude — up 9 per cent to $3.25 a gallon on Thursday, the highest level since April.

The Trump administration told the FT this week it would not tap the SPR to contain any price jump. It is working on alternative price plans, including providing US Navy escorts and insurance to tankers threatened by Iran in the Gulf.

🔗 https://archive.ph/WfXuz

🇰🇼🛢 Kuwait has begun cutting production at its oil fields after running out of room to store its bottled-up crude oil, per WSJ.

Details include:

1. Kuwait is discussing limiting production to just what it needs to cover domestic consumption

2. A decision on those broader cutbacks is expected within days, sources say

3. Once production is shut, restarting production can take days or even weeks

4. Kuwait's ~2.6 million barrels of oil production per day appear to be at risk

Oil storage in the Gulf countries is nearing maximum capacity.

🔗 Kobeissi Letter

💸🇦🇪 Wealthy East-Asians are beginning to move their assets away from Dubai to Singapore and Hong Kong

The war with Iran has completely ruined the safe-haven aura the Gulf Countries enjoyed for decades.

🔗 https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/wealthy-asians-look-move-dubai-assets-closer-home-iran-war-fears-2026-03-06/

🇺🇸🤝🇻🇪 The U.S. has restored diplomatic ties with Venezuela, a symbolic recognition of Delcy Rodriguez's administration and definitive sidelining of opposition figure, Maria Corina Machado.

Rodriguez increased oil exports to the U.S. a decision credited as the main reason for the full restoration of diplomatic ties between Washington D.C. and Caracas.

🔗 https://www.state.gov/releases/office-of-the-spokesperson/2026/03/a-statement-on-u-s-venezuela-relations/

🇺🇸⚔️🇮🇷 The White House apparently did not anticipate that starting a war with Iran would cause oil prices for Americans to rise.

President Donald Trump’s chief of staff, Susie Wiles, is telling his advisers to bring ideas to the Oval Office to lower gasoline prices in the wake of the U.S. attack on Iran, according to two energy industry executives familiar with the conversations.

The White House is “looking under every rock for ideas on improving energy prices, especially gasoline prices,” said one of the executives, who was granted anonymity to describe internal administration discussions.

The attack and Iran’s subsequent targeting of the Persian Gulf’s energy sector has sent crude oil up more than $10 a barrel, lifting gasoline prices to their highest levels since Trump took office last year.

Energy Secretary Chris Wright and other advisers focused on energy policy, including a council led by Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, “are getting screamed at to find some good news” on bringing down prices, the same executive said. “Folks are scrambling for announcements and messaging to counter the narrative” of rising prices, this person said.

Some of the ideas the administration is considering include a temporary holiday on the gasoline tax, people familiar with the discussions said. But that might not bring immediate relief since it would require action from Congress. And there’s no guarantee oil refiners and gas stations would pass the savings along to drivers.

Some administration officials have also floated using the U.S. military to defend energy infrastructure in the Middle East. But that idea isn’t likely to win over Saudi Arabian officials, who are cool on it given the sensitivities around American boots on the kingdom’s soil.

Loosening U.S. sanctions against Russian oil shipments is also among the another of the ideas the administration is considering to bring down gasoline prices, two people familiar with the discussions said Thursday.

🔗 https://www.politico.com/news/2026/03/05/iran-energy-prices-trump-wiles-00813710

✈️ United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby said the spike in jet fuel prices will make plane tickets more expensive

Jet fuel, airlines’ biggest expense after labor, has surged 58% since last Friday, going for $3.95 a gallon on Thursday, according to the Argus U.S. Jet Fuel Index.

“If it continues we’ll feel it in Q2 also,” Kirby said after an event Thursday afternoon

United, like most major U.S. carriers, doesn’t hedge fuel, a practice where airlines or other companies lock in prices using futures contracts or other products.

When asked when the higher fuel costs will start affecting airfares, Kirby said it will “probably start quick.

🔗 https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/06/united-airlines-ceo-scott-kirby.html

🇮🇷🛢🇺🇸🛢🇻🇪 Everyone talks about Iranian oil in barrels. Nobody talks about what is inside them. That difference is why Western refineries have been running shadow networks through Dubai for twenty years to get it despite the sanctions.

Crude oil is not a uniform commodity. It is a spectrum of hydrocarbons with different molecular weights, and the composition of a given crude determines how easily it converts into the products refineries actually want to sell: gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, heating oil. The measurement that captures this is API gravity. Higher API gravity means lighter crude with shorter carbon chains, which means lower energy cost to crack, lower processing cost to refine, and higher yield of the light distillates that carry premium pricing. Lower API gravity means heavier crude requiring more energy, more processing steps, more capital equipment, and producing a higher share of lower-value residuals.

Iranian Light crude runs at 33 to 36 degrees API gravity with sulfur content between 1.36 and 1.5 percent. That is the refinery sweet spot. It is light enough to yield high fractions of gasoline and middle distillates without excessive processing costs, but heavy enough to produce the full range of products that complex refineries are designed to process. It is what petroleum engineers call an optimal blend crude.

Now compare the alternatives.

Venezuelan Merey heavy crude runs at approximately 16 degrees API gravity with sulfur between 3 and 5 percent. Refining it profitably requires a coking unit, a hydrocracker, and an extensive desulfurization train. The equipment exists. The economics work for refineries purpose-built around Venezuelan feedstock. It is not a substitute for Iranian crude. It is a different product requiring different industrial infrastructure.

US West Texas Intermediate runs at 39 to 40 degrees API with sulfur below 0.25 percent. In theory, the cleanest and easiest crude to process. In practice, it is so light that it does not yield the heavier middle distillates a complex refinery needs to run at full capacity. European and Asian refineries built around medium crudes cannot switch to WTI without blending it with heavier crudes to achieve the molecular weight distribution their process units require. WTI is not a drop-in replacement for Iranian medium.

Iranian oil fits where both US shale and Venezuelan heavy do not. It is the liquid that flows through the middle of the global refining system without requiring either the coking infrastructure for heavy crudes or the blending operations for ultra-light shale. That molecular fit is why it commands a persistent premium above comparable grades. It is why Indian refineries maintained Iranian crude purchases through every round of sanctions and negotiated the logistics to keep that flow moving. It is why the Dubai shadow banking and trading network that the UAE is now considering dismantling existed in the first place.

The Strait of Hormuz does not just carry oil. It carries the specific category of oil that the global refining system was built to process most efficiently. Closing it does not just reduce supply. It removes the grade of crude that the system runs best on and forces every refinery in the world to run less efficiently on whatever it can find as a substitute.

That is the premium embedded in the $82 oil price. Not just volume. Molecular weight.

https://x.com/shanaka86/status/2029811061264896293

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🇮🇷🛸💥📉Iran Missile launches during the first 8 days of conflict:

🚀 Ballistic Missiles:
🔴 Day 1 — 350
🔴 Day 2 — 175
🔴 Day 3 — 120
🔴 Day 4 — 50
🔴 Day 5 — 40
🔴 Day 6 — 32
🔴 Day 7 — 28
🔴 Day 8 — 15

🛸 Drone Swarms:
🟢 Day 1 — 294
🟢 Day 2 — 541
🟢 Day 3 — 200
🟢 Day 4 — 85
🟢 Day 5 — 45
🟢 Day 6 — 38
🟢 Day 7 — 30
🟢 Day 8 — 12

https://x.com/World_Insights1/status/2029779899943375344

Follow @FelipeChannel