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Forwarded from Song of Oil and LNG
🇮🇷🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia Draws a Red Line: Attack Us Again and Face Retaliation
Saudi Arabia has delivered a direct warning to Tehran that continued Iranian attacks on the kingdom could compel Riyadh to respond in kind. Four sources familiar with the matter confirmed the message was communicated through back-channel contacts, marking one of the most explicit threats of escalation from Gulf Arab states since the conflict began.
The warning comes as the broader US-Israeli military campaign against Iran enters an intensified phase, with energy infrastructure among the primary targets. Saudi Arabia, which exports roughly 6 million barrels per day, has so far attempted to maintain operational neutrality, but the private ultimatum signals that this posture has a hard limit. Riyadh's concern is not merely sovereign integrity — any damage to Aramco facilities would immediately tighten an already strained global oil market.
If Iran tests Saudi tolerance, the Gulf's largest exporter could be drawn into direct confrontation, removing any remaining buffer between the conflict and the region's core production infrastructure.
🔎 Source
@songofoil
Saudi Arabia has delivered a direct warning to Tehran that continued Iranian attacks on the kingdom could compel Riyadh to respond in kind. Four sources familiar with the matter confirmed the message was communicated through back-channel contacts, marking one of the most explicit threats of escalation from Gulf Arab states since the conflict began.
The warning comes as the broader US-Israeli military campaign against Iran enters an intensified phase, with energy infrastructure among the primary targets. Saudi Arabia, which exports roughly 6 million barrels per day, has so far attempted to maintain operational neutrality, but the private ultimatum signals that this posture has a hard limit. Riyadh's concern is not merely sovereign integrity — any damage to Aramco facilities would immediately tighten an already strained global oil market.
If Iran tests Saudi tolerance, the Gulf's largest exporter could be drawn into direct confrontation, removing any remaining buffer between the conflict and the region's core production infrastructure.
🔎 Source
@songofoil
CNBC
Saudi Arabia told Iran not to attack it, warns of possible retaliation, sources say
Saudi Arabia told Tehran continued attacks on the kingdom could push Riyadh to respond in kind, four sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.
Forwarded from Song of Oil and LNG
🇦🇿🇮🇷 Azerbaijan Says Iran's IRGC Plotted to Blow Up the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Pipeline
Azerbaijan's security services announced they have foiled multiple acts of sabotage orchestrated by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, including a plot to attack the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline — a critical artery carrying Caspian crude to Turkey's Mediterranean coast at Ceyhan. The BTC pipeline carries approximately 600,000 barrels per day and serves as a key supply route for European markets seeking to reduce dependence on Russian and Middle Eastern flows.
The alleged IRGC plots represent a significant expansion of Iran's asymmetric response strategy beyond the Persian Gulf. By targeting Caucasus infrastructure, Tehran appears to be signalling that any country perceived as aligned with the US-Israeli campaign faces exposure. Azerbaijan, a secular majority-Muslim state with close ties to Israel and a strategic position on NATO's eastern flank, has long been a source of Iranian suspicion.
A successful strike on the BTC would have compounded an already severe global supply disruption at a moment when alternative routing capacity is stretched to its limit.
🔎 Source
@songofoil
Azerbaijan's security services announced they have foiled multiple acts of sabotage orchestrated by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, including a plot to attack the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline — a critical artery carrying Caspian crude to Turkey's Mediterranean coast at Ceyhan. The BTC pipeline carries approximately 600,000 barrels per day and serves as a key supply route for European markets seeking to reduce dependence on Russian and Middle Eastern flows.
The alleged IRGC plots represent a significant expansion of Iran's asymmetric response strategy beyond the Persian Gulf. By targeting Caucasus infrastructure, Tehran appears to be signalling that any country perceived as aligned with the US-Israeli campaign faces exposure. Azerbaijan, a secular majority-Muslim state with close ties to Israel and a strategic position on NATO's eastern flank, has long been a source of Iranian suspicion.
A successful strike on the BTC would have compounded an already severe global supply disruption at a moment when alternative routing capacity is stretched to its limit.
🔎 Source
@songofoil
Reuters
Azerbaijan says it foils Iranian plots including plan to attack major pipeline
Azerbaijan said it had prevented several acts of "terrorist" sabotage planned by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), including a plot to attack a major oil pipeline running through the South Caucasus to Turkey.
Forwarded from Song of Oil and LNG
🇶🇦 Kuwait Shuts Production, Qatar Warns Oil Could Hit $150 Within Weeks
The Strait of Hormuz remains de facto closed to tanker traffic, forcing Kuwait to shut in production as storage capacity fills and export routes stay blocked. Qatar has warned that Brent crude could reach $150 per barrel within weeks if the closure persists, a level not seen since the post-pandemic demand surge of 2022. JPMorgan separately estimated that if Gulf Arab producers exhaust storage and are forced into widespread shut-ins, Brent could breach $100 per barrel in the near term.
Prior to the conflict, Kuwait was producing approximately 2.6 million barrels per day. With tankers unwilling to transit the Strait under threat of Iranian interdiction, the logistics of export have collapsed faster than producers can adapt. Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG complex had already declared force majeure following drone attacks, cutting off roughly 77 million tonnes per year of LNG export capacity from global markets.
The convergence of shut-in Gulf production and closed export lanes is the most severe simultaneous supply shock the market has faced in decades, and the price ceiling is entirely dependent on how quickly the Strait reopens.
🔎 Source
@songofoil
The Strait of Hormuz remains de facto closed to tanker traffic, forcing Kuwait to shut in production as storage capacity fills and export routes stay blocked. Qatar has warned that Brent crude could reach $150 per barrel within weeks if the closure persists, a level not seen since the post-pandemic demand surge of 2022. JPMorgan separately estimated that if Gulf Arab producers exhaust storage and are forced into widespread shut-ins, Brent could breach $100 per barrel in the near term.
Prior to the conflict, Kuwait was producing approximately 2.6 million barrels per day. With tankers unwilling to transit the Strait under threat of Iranian interdiction, the logistics of export have collapsed faster than producers can adapt. Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG complex had already declared force majeure following drone attacks, cutting off roughly 77 million tonnes per year of LNG export capacity from global markets.
The convergence of shut-in Gulf production and closed export lanes is the most severe simultaneous supply shock the market has faced in decades, and the price ceiling is entirely dependent on how quickly the Strait reopens.
🔎 Source
@songofoil
Forwarded from /CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global (George Walker)
This is a significant and worrying development, as it marks the first time Iran has targeted a desalination facility in a Gulf country during the ongoing war.
GCC countries rely on desalination for more than 85–90% of their drinking water.
Bahrain is still letting the US use its country to target Iran from and the US bombed an Iranian desalinisation plant.
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Forwarded from /CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global (George Walker)
“The munitions that have been and will be fired are the ones that everybody needs,” said one European official.
Weapons production is a complex process that takes years of planning and runs through a supply chain riddled with bottlenecks. Trump’s reassurances that the U.S. has a “virtually unlimited supply” of munitions to fight Iran has done little to soothe allies’ fears.
“It is very frustrating, the words are not matching the deeds,” said an Eastern European official, who like others interviewed, was granted anonymity to speak candidly. “It is pretty clear to everyone that the U.S. will put their own, Taiwan’s, Israel’s, and hemisphere priorities before Europe.”
Allies in the Pacific — where China has built the world’s largest Navy and now has missiles that can attack American troops on Guam — are worried that the Pentagon will run out of ammunition in Iran and won’t have any left to deter a war in Asia.
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POLITICO
Allies fear Iran war will leave them without US weapons they bought
European and Asian countries worry the Pentagon is burning through munitions so fast that it won’t have enough to send the weapons they have purchased.
Forwarded from /CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global (George Walker)
Just yesterday, the White House claimed to "want" to "take the oil from the hands of terrorists" only to bomb Iranian oil facilities hours later, causing an environmental catastrophe over in the Tehran Metro Area which is inhabited by 14 million people.
@CIG_telegram
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Forwarded from /CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global (George Walker)
Official data indicate a significant reduction in the daily volume of American and Israeli airstrikes against Iran following the initial days of the operation launched on February 28, 2026.
According to the (ISW) report of March 5, 2026, the campaign entered a second phase following the initial suppression of Iranian air defenses and command. This suppression did not occur fully as planned, as Iran continues to operate air defenses in certain areas and the command structure has been decentralized.
The US was unable to maintain the initial pace. American forces alone recorded 1,250 targets hit in the first 48 hours and 1,700 in the first 72 hours, according to the CENTCOM Fact Sheet.
The CSIS, in an analysis published the same day, estimates that the peak occurred within the first 100 hours, with 2,000 targets struck by American munitions. From March 4 onward, the report already points to a sharp decline in attacks.
Airwars, in its March 6 report, confirms an initial “record pace” of combined US and Israeli strikes exceeding 1,000 targets per day during the first four days, but also observes that this volume was not sustained as the operation progressed.
All these think tanks claim it is natural for the first phase to be more intense. However, I state that if Iran continues launching missiles and drones, and operating air defenses to the point of shooting down two high-value drones just yesterday, this reduction was not due to objectives achieved, but due to planning problems.
It is also possible that it involves aircraft maintenance and low stocks of certain munitions.
On the first day, Israel carried out the largest aerial operation in its history, hitting 500 targets in 24 hours.
By March 5 (day 6 of the operation), it reported 2,500 strikes, showing a drop to 300 attacks per day.
By March 7 (day 8 of the war), Israel’s accumulated total is 3,400 strikes, a daily average of 425, or 15% reduction compared to the start of the operation.
In the case of the US, the estimated percentage reduction, based on official cumulative numbers, is as follows:
Total targets hit by the US until day 8 (March 7): 3,000.
Initial average daily pace (days 1–2): 1,250 strikes.
Average pace from day 3 onward: 300–400 strikes per day.
This represents an estimated 76% drop in the daily volume of U.S. attacks following the initial peak which, when combined with Israel’s data, reflects an overall coalition reduction of 55-65%.
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X (formerly Twitter)
Patricia Marins (@pati_marins64) on X
US-Israel Coalition Strikes on Iran Drop Sharply: Combined Daily Volume Down 55-65%
Official data indicate a significant reduction in the daily volume of American and Israeli airstrikes against Iran following the initial days of the operation launched on…
Official data indicate a significant reduction in the daily volume of American and Israeli airstrikes against Iran following the initial days of the operation launched on…
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Forwarded from /CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global (George Walker)
The two stressed that Iran's actions undermine regional security and stability and expressed hope that the Iranian side "will exercise wisdom and avoid miscalculation" hinting at some form of retaliation from Pakistan if Iran ramps up its attacks on Saudi Arabia following US-Israeli strikes on Iranian oil facilities and desalinisation plants.
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Forwarded from Geopolitics Watch (Levant)
#BREAKING
🇦🇪 🇮🇱 🇺🇸 ❌ 🇮🇷 — Yediot Ahronot Israeli news outlet claims that the attack on the water desalination plant in Iran was launched by the UAE which would be the first strike the UAE has launched against Iran.
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Forwarded from Geopolitics Watch (Levant)
Geopolitics Watch
#BREAKING 🇦🇪 🇮🇱 🇺🇸 ❌ 🇮🇷 — Yediot Ahronot Israeli news outlet claims that the attack on the water desalination plant in Iran was launched by the UAE which would be the first strike the UAE has launched against Iran.
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Forwarded from /CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global (George Walker)
At a congressional briefing Tuesday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio was asked whether Iran's enriched uranium would be secured. "People are going to have to go and get it," he said, without specifying who.
An Israeli defense official said Trump and his team are seriously considering sending special operations units into Iran for specific missions.
A U.S. official said the administration has discussed two options: removing the material from Iran entirely, or bringing in nuclear experts to dilute it on-site.
The mission would likely involve special operators alongside scientists, possibly from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
As for the actual operation, the most likely scenario is, they'll send a force, claim there was "combat" and were unable to enter the underground facilities so they blew them up, withdraw and then sign a ceasefire claiming that the enriched uranium is 300 meters underground and irrecoverable.
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archive.ph
U.S. weighs sending special forces to seize Iran's nuclear stockpile
archived 8 Mar 2026 09:59:33 UTC
Forwarded from /CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global (George Walker)
/CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global
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MORE:
-U.S. agencies constantly monitor site activity.
-Trump may consider raid, but not now.
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Forwarded from Geopolitics Watch (Levant)
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Forwarded from /CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global (George Walker)
USMC Lance Corporal Kevin Melendez from Grapevine, Texas, died in a hospital in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia sometime between Feb 28th to March 3rd.
His body arrived back home on March 4th and his death was announced to the public on March 6th by local news.
Unclear where he was injured as the USMC did not provide any details about the circumstances of his injuries.
@CIG_telegram
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Forwarded from The War Reporter
🇬🇧🇨🇾🇱🇧 — The Cypriot Foreign Ministry announced that the drone attacks targeting British bases in Cyprus originated from Lebanon.
"It has become necessary to focus on the Lebanese front, and we cannot rule out any possibility," the ministry added.
@thewarreporterr
"It has become necessary to focus on the Lebanese front, and we cannot rule out any possibility," the ministry added.
@thewarreporterr
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Bellum Acta - Intel, Urgent News and Archives ✝️ #FreeVenezuela
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