🇫🇷❌🇷🇺❗️ — France is preparing a contingent to be sent to Ukraine, at the first stage it will amount to about 2 thousand (2,000) military personnel, said Russian SVR director Naryshkin.

At the same time, the French army is noticeably concerned about the increased number of French people killed in Ukraine, notes the head of the Foreign Intelligence Service.

https://news.1rj.ru/str/rian_ru/236494

🌐 Cables and Pipelines.

Updated this one to include both gas and oil pipelines.

🔗 Rhodes Cartography

🇺🇸🤝🇧🇭 — The United States has approved the sale to the Kingdom of Bahrain of 50 M1A2 SEPv3 Abrams tanks, four M88A2 ARVs, eight M1110 assault bridges and eight M1150 mine clearance combat vehicles worth $2.2 billion.

🇺🇸🤝🇧🇭 — 📰 The Insider's Colby Badhwar on Twitter/X:

The US State Department has approved a possible Foreign Military Sale to Bahrain of 50 M1A2 SEPv3 Abrams Main Battle Tanks, 4 M88A2 HERCULES Combat Recovery Vehicles; 8 M1110 Joint Assault Bridges; 8 M1150 Assault Breacher Vehicles; 8 Heavy Assault Scissor Bridge (HASB) and other associated equipment & services, for an estimated cost of $2.2 billion.

The prime contractors would be General Dynamics Land Systems; BAE Systems; Leonardo DRS; Honeywell Aerospace; RTX Corporation; and Lockheed Martin.

🔗 Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (@ColbyBadhwar)

🇸🇮🏴❌🇷🇺 — 🇺🇦📰 Ukraine's Euromaidan Press: Putin, a dark conservative religious fanatic, must be stopped as quick as possible, and the West should even provide Ukraine with nuclear weapons if necessary, believes Slovenian leftist/Libertarian Marxist philosopher Slavoj Žižek.

🔗 Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress)

🇨🇦❌🇮🇱 — 📰 Ynets: Canada halts arms exports to Israel

➡️ Canadian Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly announced on Tuesday that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's government will no longer allow weapon exports to Israel.

➡️ On Monday, the Canadian House of Commons called for a halt to weapon shipments, and Joly emphasized that although the decision is not binding, Canada has decided to stop future weapon shipments to Jerusalem.

➡️ Recently, Canada delayed a shipment of 11 armored vehicles to the Israeli police and another of night-vision devices. In both instances, these were defensive, not offensive, weapons. Nonetheless, Canada, which has stringent weapon export laws, has held them up.

➡️ The minister's announcement is reportedly in response to the ruling party's move to amend a bill initially set for the House of Commons. The amendment shifted from "officially recognizing the State of Palestine" to "actively working with international partners for a comprehensive, just, and lasting peace, including advocating for a Palestinian state as part of a two-state solution through negotiations."

🔗 Link
https://archive.is/wip/XdxTM

🇵🇱🌐 ‘Alarm bells are ringing’: Poland’s president says NATO must urgently ramp up defense spending

Polish President Andrzej Duda said Monday that NATO must urgently increase its defense spending to ensure it does not become the next target of a Russian attack.

Speaking to CNBC, Duda reiterated his calls for NATO members to increase their military contributions to 3% amid new reports that Moscow could be readying to target the military alliance within two to three years.

Citing unspecified German research, Duda said new evidence suggested that Russian President Vladimir Putin is doubling down on his shift toward a war economy with a view to attacking NATO in 2026 or 2027. It follows Danish intelligence reports from February which suggested that Moscow could launch an attack on NATO within three to five years. CNBC was unable to verify the contents of either report.

“We have two or three years in which we can increase our efforts, stockpile ammunition and produce weapons to maximize European security, get ready and make sure the invasion does not happen,” he said.

“All this needs to be done in order not to have to get involved in a fight. The point is to create such a deterrent that ensures we are not attacked. This is the whole point because none of us want war,” he added.

🔗 https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/19/russia-ukraine-poland-says-nato-must-urgently-ramp-spending.html

🇫🇷❌🇷🇺 On French television scenarios for a French deployment in Ukraine were debated.

French Army Colonel Vincent Arbaretier talks about two scenarios for the actions of French troops in Ukraine:

[So, two main scenarios are being considered. The first is to concentrate troops along the Dnieper River. Colonel, what's the point? And why along the Dnieper River?] In fact, the main divide between Western and Eastern Ukraine runs along the Dnieper River. Historically, this location plays a role, in particular, it is located on easily recognizable terrain, which is important for soldiers. So, if France tells Russia that it is forbidden to cross the river on pain of retaliation, it will be immediately identified.

[Colonel, wouldn't the very fact of deploying troops along the Dnieper River, even if we say we won't shoot first, be considered a provocation by Russia?]

Absolutely not, because that would mean forcing Russia to debate from a position of equality. We have soldiers, we are a nuclear power, our soldiers can be quickly deployed, this is one of the main qualities of the French army compared to other armies, especially the German army.

[Now consider the second main hypothesis assumed in the event of the dispatch of Western ground forces - these are troops concentrated on the border with Belarus. Again, what is the point of stationing troops there?]

The interest here is twofold: firstly, to dissuade Belarus from lending a helping hand to the Russians, otherwise they too would be under the threat of French fire, but above all, it is the defense of Kyiv. I think that these two options can be mixed, that is, send French troops along the Dnieper and around Kyiv to tell the Russians: do not go further, otherwise you risk coming under our fire, including our unconventional fire.

@CIG_telegram

🇷🇺❌🇫🇷 Russian spy chief says French military in Ukraine would be priority target for Russia

Sergei Naryshkin, chief of Russia’s foreign intelligence service, said on Tuesday that any French military sent to Ukraine to help fight Russia would be a priority target for Russian troops, the TASS news agency reported.

“It (a French contingent) will become a priority and legitimate target for attacks by the Russian Armed Forces. This means that the fate of all Frenchmen who have ever come to the territory of the Russian world with a sword would await it,” Naryshkin said.

🔗 https://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2024/03/19/Russian-spy-chief-says-French-military-in-Ukraine-would-be-priority-target-for-Russia

🌐 The Attritional Art of War: Lessons from the Russian War on Ukraine

If the West is serious about the possibility of a great power conflict, it needs to take a hard look at its capacity to wage a protracted war and to pursue a strategy focused on attrition rather than manoeuvre.

Attritional wars require their own ‘Art of War’ and are fought with a ‘force-centric’ approach, unlike wars of manoeuvre which are ‘terrain-focused’. They are rooted in massive industrial capacity to enable the replacement of losses, geographical depth to absorb a series of defeats, and technological conditions that prevent rapid ground movement. In attritional wars, military operations are shaped by a state’s ability to replace losses and generate new formations, not tactical and operational manoeuvres. The side that accepts the attritional nature of war and focuses on destroying enemy forces rather than gaining terrain is most likely to win.

The West is not prepared for this kind of war. To most Western experts, attritional strategy is counterintuitive. Historically, the West preferred the short ‘winner takes all’ clash of professional armies. Recent war games such as CSIS’s war over Taiwan covered one month of fighting. The possibility that the war would go on never entered the discussion. This is a reflection of a common Western attitude. Wars of attrition are treated as exceptions, something to be avoided at all costs and generally products of leaders’ ineptitude. Unfortunately, wars between near-peer powers are likely to be attritional, thanks to a large pool of resources available to replace initial losses. The attritional nature of combat, including the erosion of professionalism due to casualties, levels the battlefield no matter which army started with better trained forces. As conflict drags on, the war is won by economies, not armies. States that grasp this and fight such a war via an attritional strategy aimed at exhausting enemy resources while preserving their own are more likely to win. The fastest way to lose a war of attrition is to focus on manoeuvre, expending valuable resources on near-term territorial objectives. Recognising that wars of attrition have their own art is vital to winning them without sustaining crippling losses.

Wars of attrition are won by economies enabling mass mobilisation of militaries via their industrial sectors. Armies expand rapidly during such a conflict, requiring massive quantities of armoured vehicles, drones, electronic products, and other combat equipment. Because high-end weaponry is very complex to manufacture and consumes vast resources, a high-low mixture of forces and weapons is imperative in order to win.

High-end weapons have exceptional performance but are difficult to manufacture, especially when needed to arm a rapidly mobilised army subjected to a high rate of attrition. For example, during the Second World War German Panzers were superb tanks, but using approximately the same production resources, the Soviets rolled out eight T-34s for every German Panzer. The difference in performance did not justify the numerical disparity in production. High-end weapons also require high-end troops. These take significant time to train – time which is unavailable in a war with high attrition rates.

It is easier and faster to produce large numbers of cheap weapons and munitions, especially if their subcomponents are interchangeable with civilian goods, ensuring mass quantity without the expansion of production lines. New recruits also absorb simpler weapons faster, allowing rapid generation of new formations or the reconstitution of existing ones.

⬇️ Continued:

🔗 https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/attritional-art-war-lessons-russian-war-ukraine

🇺🇸🌐 Donald Trump says he won’t quit NATO — if Europe pays its way

The likely Republican candidate told Nigel Farage he is committed to the military alliance so long as Europe coughs up.

Donald Trump has said the U.S. will "100 percent" remain in NATO under his leadership so long as European countries "play fair."

In an interview with his friend and ally Nigel Farage for British TV channel GB News, due to air Tuesday evening, Trump reaffirmed his commitment to the transatlantic alliance — but warned European nations not to "take advantage" of American support.

"NATO has to treat the U.S. fairly, because if it's not for the United States, NATO literally doesn't even exist," Trump said.

Asked directly if the U.S. under his presidency would come to the aid of NATO countries under attack, Trump said it would.

“Yeah. But you know, the United States should pay its fair share, not everybody else's fair share," Trump responded.

"We have an ocean in between some problems ... we have a nice big, beautiful ocean," Trump added. "[NATO] is more important for [European countries], they will take an advantage."

“So if they start to play fair, America's there?" Farage asked.

"Yes. 100 percent," Trump said.

🔗 https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-says-he-wont-quit-nato-if-europe-pays-its-way/

🇺🇸 Donald Trump has decided against choosing Vivek Ramaswamy as his running mate and is now considering him for a position in his Cabinet, potentially as Homeland Security secretary, Bloomberg reports.

🔗 Republicans Against Trump

🇺🇸 🚀 The US government seems serious about developing a lunar economy

For the first time ever, the United States is getting serious about fostering an economy on the Moon.

NASA, of course, is in the midst of developing the Artemis program to return humans to the Moon. As part of this initiative, NASA seeks to foster a lunar economy in which the space agency is not the sole customer.

That's easier said than done. A whole host of conditions must be met for a lunar economy to thrive. There must be something there that can be sold, be it resources, a unique environment for scientific research, low-gravity manufacturing, tourism, or another source of value. Reliable transportation to the Moon must be available. And there needs to be a host of services, such as power and communications for machines and people on the lunar surface. So yeah, it's a lot.

In recent months, a US Defense organization, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, has stepped in to help. This is important because DARPA is a key supporter of emerging technologies with a track record of success. (DARPA, for example, bought the very first launch on SpaceX's Falcon 1 rocket.) Last year, the defense agency announced it was initiating a study, LunA-10, to understand how best to facilitate a thriving lunar economy by 2035.

In December, DARPA announced that it was working with 14 different companies under LunA-10, including major space players such as Northrop Grumman and SpaceX, as well as non-space firms such as Nokia. These companies are assessing how services such as power and communications could be established on the Moon, and they're due to provide a final report by June.

Things are moving faster than that, however. The DARPA program manager overseeing these activities, Major Michael "Orbit" Nayak, published a paper earlier this month based on learnings from these studies that only began a few months ago.

"Based on technical work and development conducted under the LunA-10 study, I have identified six hypotheses where, if revolutionary improvements in technology can be made, I assess that a direct acceleration to the fielding of a lunar economy is likely to occur," Nayak said in the paper.

🔗 https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/03/the-us-government-seems-serious-about-developing-a-lunar-economy/

🌍🇪🇺 The Trans-Sahara Gas Pipeline, a mammoth project to connect Nigeria, Niger, Algeria to the EU gas market, is revived by African partners.

Recently, both Nigeria & Algeria made concrete steps to advance the TSGP, strengthening the South-North energy security axis of the EU

The TSGP, a project discussed for two decades and mainly promoted by African countries, is now again under the spotlight. Europe seeks alternative suppliers amid its diversification away from Russia. African countries look to Europe to export enormous and unexploited gas reserves

As it has been planned, the TSGP would be 4,000 km in length, delivering up to 30 bcm/y of gas from the rich Nigerian gas reserves up to the Sahara desert, feeding into the Algerian gas network, built and designed to secure supplies to countries such as Italy and Spain.

However, the TSGP's price tag remains unknown. A first feasibility study was conducted in 2005. The project's cost was estimated around $13 billion. Nowadays, the investment would be much higher and closer to $20 billion, making the same unbearable for African governments.

Nevertheless, signals from both Nigeria and Algeria confirm that hopes to see the project implemented have not faded. The Nigerian government has confirmed that the biggest domestic gas pipeline, the Obiafu-Obrikom-Oben Gas Pipeline (OB3) project is near completion this month.

The OB3 pipeline will supply the Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano (AKK) pipeline. Costing nearly $3 billion, the pipeline will be transporting gas from the Niger Delta to the Northern regions of Nigeria by the end of the year. The Nigerian government has spent billions in both projects.

The AKK pipeline is the most important node in the construction of the TSGP, bringing Nigeria's gas to Niger and then North to Algeria. This month, Algeria's state-owned energy company's CEO Rachid Hachichi has announced a new $50 billion investment plan in oil and gas projects

In 2024, the goal is to provide nearly $9 billion in 2024 to the plan's funding, boosting upstream investments in exploration and production. This is the key part of the 4-year Sonatrach's plan, with over 70% of the total financing heading to this expenditure item

Close to $5 billion will instead be invested in the upgrade of LNG facilities and the expansion of the Algerian gas network. Algeria has plenty of capacity in its existing pipelines to the EU, but it is seeking to diversify exports through LNG. Other than the financial burden, the challenges to the realisation of the TSGP are colossal.

In 2023, Niger's coup strained the relations between Abuja and Niamey, cutting the economic ties between ECOWAS and Niger. Also, no EU partner seems seriously interested in investing. Is the TSGP just wishful thinking?

🔗 Francesco Sassi

🌐 NATO ready to deploy 300,000 troops to Poland in case of threat - General Staff

NATO has 300,000 troops on high alert who could be deployed to Poland in the event of armed aggression against the country.

This was stated by the Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Polish Army, General Karol Dymanowski, Censor.NET reports citing TVP Info.

"These are NATO's plans, which were approved at the political level at the last NATO summit in Vilnius. Previously, there were 40,000 soldiers at the Alliance's headquarters, now there are 300,000," Dymanowski said.

The deputy chief of the General Staff stressed that "soldiers will arrive in the country in case of a threat even before the war starts".

"This is the essence of the plans aimed at deterrence. We have various scenarios ready to adequately respond to the aggression," he added.

🔗 https://censor.net/en/news/3478235/nato_ready_to_deploy_300000_troops_to_poland_in_case_of_threat_general_staff

📡🛰🤝🇺🇸 — 🏴 ZeroHedge | Exclusive: Musk's SpaceX is building spy satellite network for US intelligence agency, sources say | March 16, 2024:

"WASHINGTON, March 16 (Reuters) - SpaceX is building a network of hundreds of spy satellites under a classified contract with a U.S. intelligence agency, five sources familiar with the program said, demonstrating deepening ties between billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk's space company and national security agencies."

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