🇷🇺 🇺🇦 May 4th Russian kickoff | Armchair Warlord

"Over the last week or so we've begun to see Russian forces pushing forward across the length of the Ukrainian front line, with notable if modest successes on all axes. I've attached maps (h/t Rybar) showing some of their gains over just the last two days.

At the moment the Russians are mostly driving separate salients into the long-static front line and have not yet begun the process of generally rolling the line back or attempting to break through and rupture the front to begin a maneuver battle. With that being said I think it's safe to say we're in the opening stages of a Russian offensive, following on and building from their efforts to push the Ukrainian Army out of their fortress line in front of Donetsk (and out of artillery range of the city's civilian population) over the course of the winter.

Is this the main Russian strike? Extremely doubtful. We're likely looking at a shaping operation to pin the Ukrainian Army in place on the existing front line and force the commitment of any and all remaining AFU reserve forces prior to the hammer falling. Among other things there's an entire unengaged Russian operational group - Group "N" - hanging out on the "quiet" northeastern front along the prewar border that has yet to go into action in any serious way. We also haven't seen the sort of extremely heavy missile strikes that would precede a general offensive, although given reports of around 40 bombers airborne with no accompanying strike earlier this week the Russians may have conducted a dress rehearsal for them. And we definitely haven't seen what would be, to me, the largest indicator that we're looking at the real thing - Russian air assaults to seize key points behind Ukrainian lines a-la the war's opening operation at Gostomel Airport.

What immediately strikes me is that it's far from clear where the Russians will even aim their main effort, very much unlike the exhaustively-telegraphed Ukrainian offensive this time last year."

📎 Continued