🇷🇺🇷🇺🇸🇾 Russia may redeploy Africa Corps units to Syria to reinforce the Assad regime in Syria.

A scenario in which Syrian rebels toppled the Assad regime would harm the Kremlin’s strategic objectives in Africa and surrounding waterways such as the Mediterranean and Red Seas.

Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) claimed on December 3 that the Kremlin had decided to redeploy “private military contractors, probably Africa Corps” units to Syria in response to the surprise Syrian rebel offensive in late November.

Russia previously redeployed Africa Corps units away from Africa during Ukraine’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk Oblast in August 2024, establishing a precedent for using Africa Corps personnel to plug manpower gaps in higher-priority theaters.

Africa Corps may shore up Syrian regime forces in support and advisory roles but likely lacks the capacity to send adequate numbers of troops to change the situation fundamentally.

It is unclear how far the Syrian rebels can advance and whether they can hold their gains.

An Assad defeat would harm the Kremlin’s strategic objectives to project power in the Mediterranean & Red Seas and threaten NATO’s southern flank from Africa & the Mediterranean.

Assad’s collapse would additionally damage the global perception of Russia as an effective partner and protector, potentially threatening Russia’s partnerships with African autocrats and its resulting economic, military, and political influence in Africa.

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