⚠️🚯↪️🔂⬅️

🇷🇺🇨🇳 Russia's liquefied natural gas exports to China hit a new record high in November.


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Key Events of the Week

Short holiday week.
Almost all meaningful data is packed into Tuesday.
Liquidity drops hard after that.


📅 Tuesday

• ADP employment change.
Early signal on labor conditions.
• US preliminary GDP
Broad growth read that can move yields and USD.
• Durable goods orders
Business investment and capex signal.
• Core durable goods orders
Cleaner view without transport noise.
• GDP price index
Inflation component inside GDP.
• CB consumer confidence Household sentiment and spending outlook.
• Richmond manufacturing index
Regional growth check.

📅 Wednesday

• Initial jobless claims
Weekly labor market update.
• US stock market closes early at 6:00 PM UTC.

📅 Thursday

• US stock market closed. Christmas holiday.

📅 Friday

• European bank holidays. Very thin liquidity.

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🦺👓🕶🥽🥼

🇺🇸 Federal Reserve to Inject $6.8 Billion into Markets Monday at 9AM ET to Ease Year-End Cash Crunch


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⚠️🚯↪️🔂⬅️

Nvidia plans to start first shipments of H200 AI chips to China before mid‑February.


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🦺👓🕶🥽🥼

$4.5T JPMorgan is exploring offering crypto trading services for institutional clients.


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🦺👓🕶🥽🥼

🚨 The Trump family’s crypto project World Liberty Financial ends 2025 with its WLFI token down over 40%.


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🕯 Macro is back on the table

This US dollar setup may be one of the most important macro developments heading into 2026.

The year started with the DXY at one of the most overvalued levels in its history. Since then, the dollar has fallen sharply and returned to a major support zone that has held for roughly 15 years. That level has now been tested multiple times, especially in recent months, and the pressure is building.

The broader context matters.

🟡 Foreign central banks are moving toward tighter policy
🟡 The Fed is under increasing pressure to ease as US debt servicing costs rise
🟡 Large trade and fiscal deficits historically do not resolve under a strong dollar

When deficits reach this scale, the adjustment usually comes through financial repression rather than growth. That process is far easier with a weaker currency.

If this long-term support breaks, the implications extend well beyond FX. It would reshape capital flows, risk appetite, and relative performance across global assets.

One takeaway stands out: exposure to hard assets still looks structurally under-owned.


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⚠️🚯↪️🔂⬅️

🇯🇵 Japan to restart world's biggest nuclear plant, 15 years after Fukushima.


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🦺👓🕶🥽🥼

Netflix's $NFLX odds of closing the Warner Brothers deal falls from 80% to 61% on Polymarket.


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