🐈 Conditions in the $7.6T JGB market have worsened sharply since 2022 as yields posted one of the steepest increases in history.

🐈 Bank of Japan has significantly reduced bond purchases.

🐈 Japanese life insurers have sold a record amount of bonds.

🐈 Foreign investors now account for about 65% of monthly cash bond trading, up from 12% in 2009.

🐈 These investors hold bonds for shorter periods, which increases volatility and weakens liquidity.

These are headline-driven moves.
Tariff risk feeds directly into inflation expectations and cross-border trade sentiment. Shutdown odds affect risk appetite and front-end rates through fiscal uncertainty.

This offers a read on household demand and sentiment after recent policy noise. Weakness would lean toward growth caution rather than immediate policy repricing.

This is the core event cluster. The Fed sets the policy framework, while Powell’s language shapes rate expectations. Earnings from AI and growth bellwethers test whether equity optimism can hold under tighter financial conditions.

Labor data feeds into the growth side of the Fed reaction function. Apple adds a consumer and megacap read that can spill into broader index sentiment.

PPI matters for the inflation pipeline and margin pressure. The shutdown deadline is a binary risk that can override macro signals if headlines escalate.