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Japan hikes interest rates to 30-year-high


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What happened with US inflation?

Core CPI in the US unexpectedly fell to 2.6%, the lowest level since March 2021. This came as a surprise, with markets expecting inflation to rise.

At first glance, this is one of the strongest inflation reports in years. Both headline and core CPI dropped by 40 bps YoY, among the largest declines since 2023, and against expectations.


Why the print looks so dramatic

A key detail sits in last month’s data. The October CPI report was effectively cancelled due to the government shutdown. Because data collection was disrupted, the BLS had to rely heavily on assumptions.

One major assumption was shelter inflation, which was set at 0% for October. As a result, shelter inflation just recorded its largest 2-month net decline since the pandemic.

This could be real. Housing has been cooling. Shelter has also been the biggest driver of inflation over recent years. The new data aligns more closely with third-party inflation trackers and the broader disinflation trend since 2023.

⚡️ Energy adds more pressure

Oil prices have fallen to their lowest level since February 2021, down about $25 per barrel since inauguration day. Lower energy prices are reinforcing the disinflation narrative.

What this means for the Fed

If this trend holds, the Fed’s focus can shift fully to the labor market. Unemployment is now 4.6%, the highest since 2021.

Markets reacted fast. Rate cut expectations jumped, with a 28% probability of a 25 bp cut at the January 28 meeting. Still, the base case remains no change at about 70%, as investors want confirmation from future data.

The reality check

This is disinflation, not deflation. Prices are still rising, just more slowly. Since 2020, cumulative inflation is now 25.2%, which explains why households still feel squeezed.

The macro backdrop is shifting.
More data will decide if this CPI print is the start of a trend or a one-off adjustment.

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Market Overview

SPX: $6774
NASDAQ: $23006
DXY: $98

Gold: $4354
Silver: $65
Bitcoin: $87907


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Congress beats the market and it’s not by luck

Nancy Pelosi’s portfolio returned about 950% from 2012–2024, far ahead of Warren Buffett’s 445% and the S&P 500’s 439%.

The issue is not execution. It is access.
Members of Congress receive nonpublic, market-moving information through classified briefings and closed-door negotiations that directly affect which companies win or lose.

Research from Columbia University shows a clear pattern: lawmakers underperformed before gaining power, then began outperforming sharply once they reached leadership roles. Congressional leaders beat regular members by up to 47% per year, and their stock sales often precede regulatory actions.

This creates an obvious conflict of interest.
Policy decisions and personal portfolios should not overlap.

Enforcement is weak. The 2012 STOCK Act carries fines as low as $200.

That is why in September 2025, lawmakers introduced the Restore Trust in Congress Act, which would ban members, their spouses, and dependent children from trading individual stocks. Support stands above 86% across parties.

This will not fix Congress.
But it removes one clear advantage where insider access beats public service.


🥫 t.me/FinancialWorldUpdates

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🇧🇷 Brazil’s main stock exchange B3 plans to launch a tokenization platform and issue its own stablecoin for token trading and settlements starting in 2026.


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