🇮🇱🇨🇳 - China advises citizens to evacuate Israel through land border.

🇮🇱🇮🇷 - Israeli Home Front: A short while ago, sirens sounded in several areas across Israel following the identification of missiles launched from Iran toward the State of Israel.

The public is requested to follow the instructions of the Home Front Command.
At this time, the IAF is operating to intercept and strike where necessary to eliminate the threat.
The defense is not hermetic, therefore, it is essential to continue following the instructions of the Home Front Command.

In some serious news some ship are reportedly burning in Persian gulf…

For me as an admin it appear that the US now have their cassus belli to join the war if the info get confirmed.

And I will be honnest it smell like a false flag operation for me just like :

- The gulf of tokin incident for Vietnam,
- The targeting of American ship by Germany and the Zimmerman case for WW1,
- The WMD for Iraq,

Be your own judge but history doesn’t lie

I will also give some neutral opinions about the possible outcomes since I don’t post much let’s make it another worthy contribution :

So first let’s be clear if Iran loose it will be catastrophic for China, Russia and Pakistan so it is realistically in their interest to support Iran with weapons and resources.

1 - Pakistan will be cornered if Iran fall, they will have India, the taliban and now a pro Israel Iran ( or possibly a Baloch state a his border )

2 - China will loose his cheap oil supply with Iran and American could theoretically gains new strategic position near Central Asia which could allow easier CIA operations in the Xinjiang regions.

3 - Russia will loose even more prestige since its wasn’t reliable toward an ally for the second time, cough cough Assad

4 - Also the end of Iran would mean US equipment will be sent to both Europe and the Indo pacific thus putting more pressure on Russian and China.

Now what about Iran fate if it loose ?

1 - The most obvious outcome would be the return of the Pahlavi dynasty on the throne of Iran, after all they are the perfect vassal/puppet.

2 - But for me it is likely Iran will be Balkanized, Israel cannot let Iran be whole even if it turn pro west, because the possibility of another revolution would still be present.
So Israel might create separate entities, a Iranian Kurdistan, a Baloch state, an Arab state in the khuzestan region, another Azeri state in the northwest etc…

3 - This could create a Libyan scenario with perpetual war and could threaten state like Iraq and Pakistan.

4 - And for the pro Pahlavi having doubt, remember the SLA in Lebanon ? Well Israel abandoned them, Israel support you out of pragmatism and they will ditch you once you are not useful anymore.

So what can the solution for Iran to survive both the US and Israel ?

1 - The obvious one is a preemptive strike on US base right now BUT Israel likely damaged Iranian capabilities to a point where it wouldn’t be sufficient anymore.

2 - Another obvious one would be to acquire the Nuclear bomb NOW , and make a public test as a warning, I don’t know if Iran can realistically achieve it that quickly but it’s still double for now.

3 - Receive support from China, DPRK and Pakistan so that they can continue the fight conventionally but unlike Russia I do not know if those state will take the risk even if it’s in their best interest.

4 - I don’t expect Russia to support Iran, Russia and Israel have very close ties and Russia never gave Iran theirs ordered aircraft’s despite receiving Iranian drone for their war, it’s obvious that Russia isn’t reliable.

5 - For those arguing that Russia help is impossible due to the war in Ukraine let me remind you that Russia managed to deliver aircraft to Algeria, Myanmar, the Sahelian junta states and Libya just this year, so no Russia can deliver a certain amount but they just won’t do it.

Those are my opinions and theory , feel free to agree or disagree but one thing is certain, it’s gonna get a lot worse soon.

🇺🇸🇸🇾- Reuters: American forces withdrew from two bases in northeastern Syria

🇺🇸🇮🇷 - Trump is seriously considering joining the war and launching a U.S. strike against Iran's nuclear facilities, especially its underground uranium enrichment facility in Fordow, US officials tell Axios

🇺🇸🇮🇷 - United States President Donald Trump is currently meeting with his national security team in the Situation Room, according to a White House official - CNN

🇺🇸🇮🇷 - Fox News’ Peter Doocy reports ODNI Tulsi Gabbard was left out of meeting to discuss Israel and Iran at Camp David on Sunday, June 8.

🇺🇸 - Trump to speak when the Situation Room Meeting ends.

🇺🇸 - Trump has privately green-lit regime change in Iran — Ken Klippenstein

🤌 - (personal opinion) If Iran falls, the regime change will take at least 20 years to happen in the first place, civil unrest and conflict between factions will destroy the country. The US and Israel will back a faction and Russia and China will back another. This is the middle east after all and I believe everyone is aware of this.

Looking for new OSINTers. Please DM on @GIWdude. Looking for people familiar with European policies, Middle Eastern affairs, economics and intel.

ℹ️ note, this could also mean just refueling warplanes in the first stage days, in contrast to direct bombing by USAF

🇵🇰🇺🇸 - I remember a discussion with someone. The idea was that US killing Bin Laden without telling Pakistan first was a power move to basically tell Pakistan or any other potentiel problematic country "Don't think nukes will protect you if your harbor terrorists.".

23rd January 2025 World Economic Forum. you never know

🇺🇸🇮🇱❌️🇮🇷 - Entering the war might also lead to the use of MOP's to hit fortified nuclear enrichment sites buried in mountain ranges that Israel has been unable to damage so far as these bunker busting munitions are exclusive to the USA AF

UK, Opinium poll:

REFORM~NI: 30% (-1)
LAB-S&D: 24% (-1)
CON~ECR: 18% (+1)
LDEM-RE: 12% (+1)
GREENS-G/EFA: 9% (-1)
SNP-G/EFA: 3% (+1)
PC-G/EFA: 1%

+/- vs. 28-30 May 2025

Fieldwork: 11-13 June 2025
Sample size: 2,050

➤ europeelects.eu/uk

I'm Canadian. We've had the liberals "losing" each and every elections since I was 12. Spoiler alert they never ended up dropping up a single.