The EU's strategy for dealing with the current crisis in Bosnia is rather difficult to decipher.

Bosnia is facing a long-term existential threat from secession, which has been brewing for 20 years.
EUFOR has sent hundreds of additional troops and dozens of armed vehicles.
The U.S. warned of instability in the Balkans in a 2023 report for 2024.
Russia's growing influence in the region.

> Still no sanctions
> Still no arrests

🇺🇸🇯🇵 - Japan, S&P markets' futures at -5%.

🇺🇸 - TRUMP: FED SHOULD CUT RATES

🌎 - The Asian markets collapsed before they closed, the Middle East markets fell, and the markets in Europe are in a massive free-fall.

In 3 hours, the American markets will open and all hell will break out.

🇮🇶 - Several powerful Iranian-backed militia groups in Iraq are prepared to disarm for the first time to avert the threat of escalating conflict with the U.S. administration.

🇺🇸 - Fed announces "closed-door board meeting" for today amid market crash.

🇸🇾 - The UNHCR says 52,000 Syrian refugees have returned from Jordan since the fall of the former regime.

🇺🇸🇮🇱 - Trump / Netanyahu WH press conference cancelled.

❗️🇷🇺 Russia: AvtoVAZ is halting production of the Lada Granta — the manufacturer's most popular model.

This is due to a sharp drop in demand and overstocked warehouses.

Its a well known principle that China can support foreign politicians who aren't neither communist nor left-wing if they fit in China's interests... but this Reagan video is next step.

🇩🇿🇲🇱 - Diplomatic crisis unfolding between Algeria and Mali: Algeria shot down a Malian drone and closed its airspace to Malian planes, Bamako recalled its amb. from Algiers.

Admin opinion/analysis : Iran or the world

One of the ongoing topic outside of the market crash is the ongoing escalation of tension in the Middle East, more precisely the US military involvement in Yemen against the Houthis and ultimately against Iran.

Now obviously the root of this escalation aside from the war in Gaza or Houthis missile attack is the Iranian nuclear program, one that Trump want to negotiate directly despite iran constantly refusing it.

It is an issue in which Iran is deeply isolated even by its own international partner, the issue is obviously the creation of nuclear weapon and not the civilian program.

No one realistically want Iran to have nuke, not China nor Russia (maybe DPRK though) since it could trigger an arm race across the Middle East but Iran position is extremely weak now and they might not have a choice, each choice gonna have consequences however.

If Iran don’t get the nuke :

- They will be directly targeted by the US and Israel.
We saw by the US/Israeli action over the past 5 years that they in fact aren’t scared of Iranian conventional capabilities (Allied militia, Missile, Drone) even if they remain prudent as of now but they will take action.

- As a consequences of direct US/israeli action a regime change could be facilitated and be coupled with a potential civil war and balkanisation by different pro-independence /secessionist non-Persian minority.

- Basically an end of Iran as a regional power, the end of the Islamic republics and its influence and the eventual end of all its allied militia on the medium/long term.

- The Middle East will be disputed by Israel/USA and Turkey/Qatar

So it’s in Iran interest to get the bomb at all cost.

If Iran get the nuke :

- They will be protected from direct foreign attack since the risk of Iran using a nuke would be too high (at least for a time but eventually it might change)

- However Iran will be hammered with sanctions that could still create a rift and civil war is still possible because the CIA wouldn’t back down, both with ethnic minorities and anti regime but without a strong enough external support like US airstrike those would fail imo.

- Iran getting the bomb would also trigger an arms race in the ME, Turkey, KSA, the UAE and Qatar could easily develop their own arsenal as a result , and if Turkey have the bomb so why not Greece then or Serbia after all, a new era of nuclear proliferation could unfold.

- The world will become even more dangerous with the prospect of nuclear conflict rising, that is why Russia and China don’t want Iran to get the bomb, beside they would loose some status too, ultimately having nuclear weapon mean you don’t have to rely much on other state larger anymore in certain army field.

So this is indeed Iran or the world, one when Iran "die" but the world can remain more or less "stable" and by that I mean that we don’t put more oil in the massive fire unfolding.

Or Iran survive ( for a time ) and the world is driven to an edge, a new nuclear unknown with new major actor rising and new risk of war in and beyond the Middle East.

Truly a fallout timeline