🇩🇿🇲🇱 - Diplomatic crisis unfolding between Algeria and Mali: Algeria shot down a Malian drone and closed its airspace to Malian planes, Bamako recalled its amb. from Algiers.

Admin opinion/analysis : Iran or the world

One of the ongoing topic outside of the market crash is the ongoing escalation of tension in the Middle East, more precisely the US military involvement in Yemen against the Houthis and ultimately against Iran.

Now obviously the root of this escalation aside from the war in Gaza or Houthis missile attack is the Iranian nuclear program, one that Trump want to negotiate directly despite iran constantly refusing it.

It is an issue in which Iran is deeply isolated even by its own international partner, the issue is obviously the creation of nuclear weapon and not the civilian program.

No one realistically want Iran to have nuke, not China nor Russia (maybe DPRK though) since it could trigger an arm race across the Middle East but Iran position is extremely weak now and they might not have a choice, each choice gonna have consequences however.

If Iran don’t get the nuke :

- They will be directly targeted by the US and Israel.
We saw by the US/Israeli action over the past 5 years that they in fact aren’t scared of Iranian conventional capabilities (Allied militia, Missile, Drone) even if they remain prudent as of now but they will take action.

- As a consequences of direct US/israeli action a regime change could be facilitated and be coupled with a potential civil war and balkanisation by different pro-independence /secessionist non-Persian minority.

- Basically an end of Iran as a regional power, the end of the Islamic republics and its influence and the eventual end of all its allied militia on the medium/long term.

- The Middle East will be disputed by Israel/USA and Turkey/Qatar

So it’s in Iran interest to get the bomb at all cost.

If Iran get the nuke :

- They will be protected from direct foreign attack since the risk of Iran using a nuke would be too high (at least for a time but eventually it might change)

- However Iran will be hammered with sanctions that could still create a rift and civil war is still possible because the CIA wouldn’t back down, both with ethnic minorities and anti regime but without a strong enough external support like US airstrike those would fail imo.

- Iran getting the bomb would also trigger an arms race in the ME, Turkey, KSA, the UAE and Qatar could easily develop their own arsenal as a result , and if Turkey have the bomb so why not Greece then or Serbia after all, a new era of nuclear proliferation could unfold.

- The world will become even more dangerous with the prospect of nuclear conflict rising, that is why Russia and China don’t want Iran to get the bomb, beside they would loose some status too, ultimately having nuclear weapon mean you don’t have to rely much on other state larger anymore in certain army field.

So this is indeed Iran or the world, one when Iran "die" but the world can remain more or less "stable" and by that I mean that we don’t put more oil in the massive fire unfolding.

Or Iran survive ( for a time ) and the world is driven to an edge, a new nuclear unknown with new major actor rising and new risk of war in and beyond the Middle East.

Truly a fallout timeline

What is your opinion on this dears subscriber ?

Let's be honest... its not a surprise that Trump just declaring tariffs on everyone is triggering a market panic.

Its not a surprise either that Trump isn't backing away.

🇨🇳🇺🇸 - China says will fight US tariffs to the end.

🇺🇸🇲🇽 - The Trump administration is thinking about using the U.S. military to launch drone strikes on drug cartels in Mexico.

🇨🇳🇷🇺🇺🇦 - Ukrainian forces have captured two Chinese citizens fighting for Russia in the Donetsk region.

🇨🇦 - Quebec moment.

A few years ago, a madman had his car rushing through a kindergarden, killing 2 children.

The parents of the victims were awarded free psychological support for the rest of their lives...

But the older sister of one of the victim was only awarded 30 appointments for psychotherapy 🤡

As far as I know, in most countries, people don't look to somehow balance the budget in the wake of those tragedies....

🇺🇸🇨🇳 - President Trump says China wants to make a deal “badly” but doesn’t know how to get it started.

🇹🇷🇸🇾 - RUMINT of "communication line to avoid conflict in Syria" between Turkey and Israel.

🇸🇩 - The entire Sudanese battlefield has been reconfigured in the space of a few months 👀

🇧🇦🇪🇺 - The Bosnian Presidency has officially requested EUFOR’s assistance in arresting Dodik, coinciding with the arrival of EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Kaja Kallas in Sarajevo.

So sh!t might happen actually.

🇧🇦🇪🇺 - Among the conclusions adopted by the Presidency:

The Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina officially calls upon the EUFOR forces stationed in Bosnia and Herzegovina to provide assistance to the law enforcement agencies of Bosnia and Herzegovina in the implementation of decisions made by the judicial authorities of Bosnia and Herzegovina (the case of Milorad Dodik and others). The Presidency is forwarding this conclusion to the commander of the EUFOR forces in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

🇨🇳🇺🇸 - 104% tariffs on China took effect noon today following China's retaliation to Trump's tariffs.

🇧🇦🇪🇺 - Key Points from today’s speech by Vice President of the European Commission Kaja Kallas in Sarajevo:

🇧🇦 -Undermining territorial integrity or state institutions is unacceptable.

🛡-EUFOR Troop numbers increased last month to support during the political crisis.

🇪🇺-EU strongly supports Bosnia and Herzegovina, but steps are needed for membership.