📊 Market Update Report | Wintermute (December 15, 2025)

Despite some technical rallies, the market is currently consolidating rather than forming a new trend. The expected "year-end rally" did not materialize; instead, there was a rotation of capital and a reduction in risk.

🪙 Bitcoin & Market Structure

🖤 ​​BTC is testing the recent bottom of the price range, after more than two weeks of sideways trading within the $88,000 – $92,000 range.
🖤 ​​The price has broken down to approximately $86,500, marking a breakout above the lower edge of the range.
🖤 ​​Whether this marks an extension of the price range or the start of a deeper correction will depend on the reaction of buying pressure and the direction of macroeconomic factors.

➡️ Macroeconomic factors remain the controlling element for price direction.

A. THE MACRO PICTURE
1. Federal Reserve
🖤 ​​The Fed cut interest rates by 25bps, bringing the total easing since September 2024 to 175bps.
🖤 ​​The tone becomes more cautious, the dot plot suggesting only one cut in 2026.
🖤 ​​The Fed simultaneously announced the purchase of $40 billion in T-bills, essentially ending the international trade war, but framed as a measure to stabilize the monetary market.
🖤 ​​The market doesn't fully trust the dot plot and is still pricing in about 3 cuts next year.
➡️ The gap between signals from the Fed and market expectations remains very large.

2. AI narrative is "farting"
The stock market is witnessing a shift from the AI ​​narrative to fundamental factors.
Broadcom is profitable, but:

🖤 ​​Warning: Profit margins will decrease
🖤 ​​Hesitancy to predict/commit to 2026 results → Raises doubts about the short-term profitability of AI infrastructure investments.

➡️ This puts pressure on semiconductors and related tech groups.

🖤 ​​With crypto:

🖤 ​​If AI takes less of the spotlight, it could free up capital and attention.
🖤 ​​But crypto remains sensitive to global growth sentiment.

🖤 Wintermute argues: Orderly AI cooling down = positive | Strong unwind = risky

3. Bank of Japan (BoJ)
🖤 ​​The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to raise interest rates to 0.75% (the highest in approximately 30 years).
🖤 ​​Simultaneously, they plan to sell over $500 billion worth of ETFs.
🖤 ​​This raises concerns about the JPY carry trade and global liquidity.
Although BTC has fallen sharply after previous BoJ hikes (2024–2025), Wintermute emphasizes:

"Historical correlation alone is insufficient to draw cause-and-effect conclusions without considering positioning, liquidity, and the overall macroeconomic context."

B. WINTERMUTE'S PERSPECTIVE
"The market is consolidating, slightly oversold, and digesting macroeconomic uncertainty - We haven't entered a prolonged risk-off phase yet."
🖤 ​​This is more like the final stage of digestion than a long-term structural change.
🖤 ​​The situation downstairs is currently considered orderly, not panic-prone.
🖤 ​​Short-term main scenario: Wide range, noisy fluctuations, selective strategy, buying in segments instead of betting on the big trend.
➡️ The market is awaiting further clarity on growth, policy, and liquidity heading into early 2026.

❗️ Market update information, not investment advice. #NFA #DYOR

➡️ Source: Here

@GOSUCrypto